OBJECTIVES: To analyze the trends of disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2021 and its future projections. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database to conduct a comprehensive analysis of disease burden data from China (including Taiwan Province of China), Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia. The data were stratified by age, gender and major risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future trends. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asian countries exhibited a steady increase. Taiwan Province of China experienced the most significant increases in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while Mongolia saw a decline in both mortality and DALYs. In 2021, Taiwan Province of China reported the highest rates of lip and oral cancer incidence (27.50 per 100 000), prevalence (137.92 per 100 000), mortality (9.59 per 100 000), and DALYs (292.07 person-years per 100 000), particularly among male and elderly populations. Tobacco use and alcohol consumption significantly exacerbated the disease burden in Taiwan Province of China and Japan. Future projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of lip and oral cancer in China (excluding Taiwan Province of China) will continue to rise, while their mortality rates are expected to decline in most regions, except for Taiwan Province of China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea. CONCLUSIONS By the year 2035, the disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia is expected to continue to increase, especially in Taiwan Province of China. To address this challenge, it is essential to implement effective measures to control major risk factors, promote early screening, and ensure equitable distribution of healthcare resources.
Humans ; Mouth Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Lip Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Asia, Eastern/epidemiology* ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Female ; Forecasting ; Risk Factors ; Cost of Illness ; Middle Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Aged ; Bayes Theorem

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the changes in disease burden and risk factors of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 to provide epidemiological evidence for developing effective preventive measures for AF/AFL in China. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed sex- and age-specific AF/AFL burden metrics across 204 countries or territories. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence, mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were calculated. Joinpoint regression was employed to compute average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in trends. The risk factors were systematically evaluated and further validated using Mendelian randomization analysis. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, China experienced an increase in ASIR of AF/AFL (from 42.63 to 44.93 per 100 000), contrasting with the global decline. While China's ASMR decreased (from 4.93 to 4.33 per 100 000), global ASMR rose slightly (from 4.24 to 4.36 per 100 000). China's ASDR remained stable at 93.29 per 100 000, whereas global ASDR increased marginally (100.81 to 101.40 per 100 000). Significant sex disparities were observed: males showed higher ASIR and ASDR, while females exhibited greater ASMR and ASDR. China had higher incidence and prevalence but lower mortality and DALY rates compared to global averages. In 2021, the key risk factors for AF/AFL included elevated systolic blood pressure, high BMI, smoking, alcohol use, high-sodium diet, and low temperature. Gender-specific patterns emerged: smoking was predominant in males, whereas high BMI disproportionately affected females. CONCLUSIONS AF/AFL incidence and prevalence keep increasing in China, and its large population base and demographic aging pose significant public health challenges. Maintaining healthy lifestyle habits, including smoking cessation, alcohol moderation, and a low-sodium diet can help to lower AF/AFL incidence, and regular screenings is crucial for its early detection and treatment.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors ; Atrial Flutter/epidemiology* ; Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology* ; Mendelian Randomization Analysis ; Male ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Middle Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged

BACKGROUND: Research has indicated that the disease burden of alopecia areata (AA) in China exceeds the global average. Therefore, accurate and updated epidemiological information is crucial for policymakers. In this study, we aimed to comprehensively assess the disease burden of AA in China. METHODS: The following four key indicators were utilized: the prevalence of cases; disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR); and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of AA according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. We analyzed the epidemiological burden of AA in China during 2021, examined changes between 1990 and 2021, and performed a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis to predict trends over the course of the next decade (2022-2030). Additionally, a Gaussian process regression model was applied to estimate the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the ASPR and ASDR of AA at the provincial level between 1992 and 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, the estimated number of patients with AA in China was approximately 3.49 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.37-3.62 million); of these patients, 1.20 million (95% UI, 1.16-1.25 million) were male and 2.29 million (95% UI, 2.20-2.37 million) were female. This large number of patients with AA resulted in a total of 114,431.25 DALYs (95% UI, 74,780.27-160,318.96 DALYs). Additionally, the ASPR and ASDR were 224.61 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 216.73-232.65 per 100,000 population) and 7.41 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 4.85-10.44 per 100,000 population), respectively; both of these rates were higher than the global averages. The most affected demographic groups were young and female individuals 25-39 years of age. Slight regional disparities were observed, with the northern and central regions of China bearing comparatively higher burdens. Between 1990 and 2021, the health loss and disease burden caused by AA in China remained relatively stable. The ASPR and ASDR of AA increased with the GDP when the annual GDP was less than 2 trillion Chinese yuan; however, a downward trend was observed as the GDP surpassed 2 trillion Chinese yuan. A slight upward trend in the disease burden of AA in China is predicted to occur over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS AA continues to be a public health concern in China that shows no signs of declining. Targeted efforts for young individuals and females are necessary because they experience a disproportionately high burden of AA.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Alopecia Areata/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool

BACKGROUND: Most studies have evaluated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients based on a set of generic disability weights (DWs). This study aimed to apply local CRC-stage-specific DWs to estimate the burden of DALYs for CRC (CRC-DALYs) in populations in China and consider the influence of local screening coverage of CRC. METHODS: A prevalence-based model was constructed using data from various sources. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated mainly via cumulative prevalence data (based on CRC incidence rates, population numbers, and survival rates), stage-specific proportions of CRC, and DWs of the local population. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated based on the CRC mortality rates and standard life expectancies. CRC incidence and mortality rates for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030 were estimated by joinpoint regression, and the corresponding DALYs were predicted. The main assumption was made for CRC screening coverage. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the impact of population, DWs, and coverage. RESULTS: In 2017, among the Chinese population, the estimated number of CRC-DALYs was 4,303,314 (11.9% for YLDs). If CRC screening coverage rate in China (2.3%) remains unchanged, the overall DALYs in 2030 are predicted to increase by 37.2% (45.1% of those aged ≥65 years). More optimistically, the DALYs would then decrease by 0.7% in 2030 (from 5,902,454 to 5,860,200) if the coverage could be increased to 25.0%. A sensitivity analysis revealed that using local DWs would change the base-case values by 5.7%. CONCLUSIONS The estimated CRC-DALYs in China using population-specific DWs were considerably lower (with a higher percentage of YLDs) than the global burden of disease (GBD) estimates (5,865,004, of 4.6% for YLDs), suggesting the impact extent of applying local parameters. Sustainable scale-up CRC screening needs to be in place to moderate the growth trend of CRC-DALYs in China.
Humans ; Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis* ; China/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Prevalence ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Adult ; Incidence

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological pattern and disease burden of type 2 diabetes have been shifting in China over the past decades. This analysis described the epidemiological transition of type 2 diabetes in the past three decades and projected the trend in the future three decades in China. METHODS: Age-, sex-, and year-specific incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for people with 15 years or older and diabetes or high fasting glucose in China and related countries from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease. We obtained the trends of age-, sex-, and year-specific rates and absolute numbers of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes in China from 1990 to 2021. Using the Lee-Carter model, we projected the incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes to 2050 stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes was 341.5 per 100,000 persons (1.6 times in 1990) and the age-standardized prevalence was 9.96% (9960.0 per 100,000 persons, 2.5 times in 1990) in China 2021. In 2021, there were 0.9 million deaths and 26.8 million DALYs due to type 2 diabetes or hyperglycemia, as 2.9 and 2.7 times the data in 1990, respectively. The age-standardized rates of type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemia were projected to raise to 449.5 per 100,000 persons for incidence, 18.17% for prevalence, 244.6 per 100,000 persons for death, and 4720.2 per 100,000 persons for DALYs by 2050. The incidence of type 2 diabetes kept growing among individuals under the age of 20 years in the past three decades (128.7 per 100,000 persons in 1990 and 439.9 per 100,000 persons in 2021) and estimating 1870.8 per 100,000 in 2050. CONCLUSIONS The incidence, prevalence, and disease burden of type 2 diabetes grew rapidly in China in the past three decades. The prevention of type 2 diabetes in young people and the care for elder adults will be the greatest challenge for the country.
Humans ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Female ; Male ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged, 80 and over

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD), mainly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a significant public health concern worldwide. This study aims to quantify the burden of NAFLD in CLD globally and within China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, providing crucial insights for global and local health policies. METHODS: The study used comprehensive data from the GBD study 2021. It included estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 2011 to 2021 were reported. A meticulous decomposition analysis was conducted. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 1582.5 million prevalent cases, 47.6 million incident cases, 1.4 million deaths, and 44.4 million DALYs attributable to CLD, globally. Among these, NAFLD has emerged as the predominant cause, accounting for 78.0% of all prevalent CLD cases (1234.7 million) and 87.2% of incident cases (41.5 million). Correspondingly, NAFLD had the highest age-standardized prevalence (15,017.5 per 100,000 population) and incidence (876.5 per 100,000 population) rates among CLDs. In addition, China's CLD age-standardized prevalence rate was 21,659.5 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 752.6 per 100,000 population, higher than the global average. From 2011 to 2021, the global prevalence rate of CLD increased slowly (AAPC = 0.17), consistent with the trend in China (AAPC = 0.23). Furthermore, the prevalence rate of NAFLD rose significantly in China (AAPC = 1.30) compared with the global average (AAPC = 0.91). Decomposition analysis also showed the worldwide increase in deaths and DALYs for NAFLD, which were primarily attributable to population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS The burden of CLD and NAFLD remains substantial globally and within China in terms of high prevalence and incidence. As such, this underscores the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. These findings emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and research to mitigate the growing impact of liver diseases on global and Chinese health systems.
Humans ; Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/mortality* ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Female ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Chronic Disease ; Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Liver Diseases/epidemiology* ; Aged

BACKGROUND: Gout is a chronic disease primarily caused by elevated urate levels, severely affecting joint health. Its global distribution varies, and updated data for China are lacking. This study aimed to analyze the current burden and trends of gout globally and in China, examining the burden by gender, age, and risk factors while providing future predictions. METHODS: This descriptive epidemiological secondary analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021 study. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) were used to assess the gout burden. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed across global regions, genders, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. The burden in China was further examined by gender, age, and associated risk factors. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends. Gout burden in China and the United States was compared. RESULTS: In 2021, gout affected 57 million people globally, with 9.4 million new cases and 1.75 million DALYs. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR increased by 17.2%, 21.9%, and 21.3%, respectively. Males experienced a significantly higher burden, with greater ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR increasing with higher SDI levels. In China, male ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR were over 2.8 times those of females, and the burden increased with age. In 2021, 31.4% of gout-related DALYs in China were attributed to high body mass index and 7.6% to kidney dysfunction. Between 1990 and 2021, the high body mass index-related burden of gout rose annually for both genders, while the kidney dysfunction-related gout burden remained stable. By 2050, the burden of gout in China is expected to continue increasing, with a slower rise in females and a decline in males after an initial increase. However, the overall burden will remain substantial. In comparison, the gout burden will be higher in the United States than in China. CONCLUSIONS Gout is becoming a significant health burden globally and in China, particularly among Chinese males and older individuals. With the aging population and lifestyle changes exacerbating the issue, effective strategies and measures are essential to prevent or reduce gout-related health issues.
Humans ; Gout/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; China/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Asthma, one of the most widespread chronic respiratory diseases, has placed a considerable economic and social stress on China. This study examines the burden of asthma in China from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts future trends, providing guidance for establishing focused preventive and regulatory strategies. METHODS: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021, the analysis of trends in asthma burden was conducted for China from 1990 to 2021. Key indicators such as incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analysed. The investigation applied the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and age-period-cohort model (APCM) to evaluate these trends. Furthermore, predictions for incidence and mortality in 2035 were generated using the Bayesian APCM and the Nordpred model. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 25,015,668 prevalent asthma cases in China, alongside 3,934,875 new cases and 26,233 deaths. The age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized death rate for 2021 were 364.17 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI]: 283.22-494.1) per 100,000 population and 1.47 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79) per 100,000 population, respectively. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence were detected to be elevated in the 0-4 years age group, and the prevalence was significantly higher in the 5-9 years age group compared to other cohorts. ASR for incidence and prevalence of asthma in China were lower than that in the global average. Between 1990 and 2021, the ASR of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs demonstrated a downward trajectory, with EAPC values of -1.17, -1.57, -4.69, and -2.98, respectively. People aged 0-9 years and over 60 years experienced a disproportionately higher disease burden. Projections indicate that the ASRs for incidence will continue to rise, whereas the death will continue to decline by 2035. CONCLUSIONS Between 1990 and 2021, a general reduction in the asthma burden in China was observed. However, the burden remains particularly high among people aged 0-9 years and over 60 years, underscoring the need for targeted interventions and policies to address the ongoing challenges of asthma.
Humans ; Asthma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Incidence ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Child ; Adolescent ; Female ; Prevalence ; Child, Preschool ; Infant ; Aged ; Young Adult ; Infant, Newborn ; Bayes Theorem

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death and long-term disability worldwide, including China. This study aimed to provide timely updates on stroke burden and stroke-related risk factors to help improve population-based prevention and control strategies. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021, incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate were used to estimate stroke burden trend from 1990 to 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, China had 4.1 million incident stroke cases, 26.3 million prevalent stroke cases, 2.6 million stroke related deaths, and 53.2 million stroke related DALYs, compared to 11.9 million incident stroke cases, 93.8 million prevalent stroke cases, 7.3 million stroke related deaths, and 160.5 million stroke-related DALYs worldwide. In 2021, the top six risk factors contributing to stroke burden were high blood pressure, air pollution, tobacco consumption, dietary risk factors, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high fasting plasma glucose, both in China and worldwide. From 1990 to 2021, China had significant increases of incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate for stroke, with estimates of 100.6 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 87.2, 114.1)%, 102.9 (95% UI: 95.5, 110.9)%, 40.0 (95% UI: 14.9, 72.3)% and 15.7 (95% UI: -4.6, 41.2)%, respectively, while global incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate for total stroke showed relatively moderate increases or even decreases, with estimates of 15.0 (95% UI: 12.1,18.0)%, 25.8 (95% UI: 23.7, 28.0)%, -2.6 (95% UI: -10.6, 5.5)%, and -10.7 (95% UI: -17.7, -3.6)%, respectively. CONCLUSION Stroke remains a huge disease burden worldwide and in China, and compared to the worldwide China has a significantly higher burden of stroke.
Humans ; Stroke/etiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Female ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Male

BACKGROUND: Infertility is a burdensome, often overlooked condition. This study aimed to investigate the global distribution and trends in the burden of infertility from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We obtained data on the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) related to infertility from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study and evaluated them by calculating the estimated annual percentage change in age-standardized rates. We investigated the relationship between sociodemographic index (SDI) and the burden of infertility on the global, regional, and national levels. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 143,261,562 female and 55,481,380 male infertility cases worldwide, respectively. In China, female and male infertility cases accounted for 23.59% and 21.47% of the global totals, reaching 33,795,944 and 11,909,889, respectively. Compared with 2019, the global number of female and male infertility cases increased by 5,286,227 in females and 2,017,271 in males. In contrast, China saw a decline in both female and male infertility cases, with reductions of 698,735 and 154,591, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR) for female infertility both increased by 0.59% annually, whereas these two corresponding indicators for male infertility increased by 0.50% annually worldwide. The burden of female infertility was consistently higher than that of male infertility and demonstrated a faster rate of increase. East Asia had the highest ASPR and ASYR for female infertility, whereas Eastern Europe had the highest metrics for male infertility. A horizontal S-shaped association was observed between the SDI and ASPR and ASYR of infertility, with a rapid decline in the infertility burden when the SDI exceeded 0.7. CONCLUSIONS The global burden of infertility has increased over the years, with a higher burden on women and underdeveloped regions. These findings emphasize the need to prioritize healthcare for patients with infertility to address the rising burden.
Humans ; Female ; Male ; Global Burden of Disease ; Prevalence ; Infertility/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Infertility, Male/epidemiology* ; Persons with Disabilities/statistics & numerical data* ; Middle Aged ; Infertility, Female/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years