1.Expert Consensus on Neurocritical Care Monitoring and Management in Beijing and Tibet(2025)
Drolma PHURBU ; Wenjin CHEN ; Heng ZHANG ; Jian ZHANG ; Xiaomeng WANG ; Guoying LIN ; Wenjun PAN ; Xiying GUI ; Xin CAI ; Chodron TENZIN ; Jianlei FU ; Qianwei LI ; TSEYANG ; Yijun LIU ; Bo LIU ; Tsering DROLMA ; Yudron SONAM ; KYILV ; Samdrup TSERING ; Wa DA ; Juan GUO ; Cheng QIU ; Huan CHEN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Yangong CHAO ; Dawei LIU ; Wenzhao CHAI ; Chenggong HU ; Wanhong YIN ; Shihong ZHU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):59-72
Neurocritical care involves complex pathophysiological mechanisms, and its incidence is higher, injuries are more severe, and treatment is more challenging in high-altitude environments. This consensus, based on the latest domestic and international evidence-based medical data, establishes a standardized, goal-oriented framework for neurocritical care management applicable in high-altitude regions and nationwide. The consensus was developed following international standards for evidence quality assessment and underwent two rounds of Delphi expert consultation, resulting in 32 recommendation statements covering three parts: management systems, monitoring and assessment, and core strategies. Key updates include: advocating for the establishment of independent neurocritical care units and implementing precise tiered diagnosis and treatment based on the "Five Differences in Critical Care" concept; constructing a "trinity" multimodal brain monitoring system centered on cerebral blood flow, cerebral oxygenation, and brain function, emphasizing routine bedside transcranial Doppler ultrasound, cerebral oximetry, and continuous electroencephalography monitoring; shifting management strategies from mild hypothermia therapy to targeted temperature management, and defining the "446" target management pathway for the supercritical stage; emphasizing the assessment of static and dynamic cerebrovascular autoregulation functions through multimodal methods to achieve individualized optimal mean arterial pressure management; elevating cerebrospinal fluid management goals to the level of "glymphatic system" function maintenance; implementing a multidisciplinary collaborative, whole-process management model focusing on patients' long-term neurological functional outcomes; de-escalation criteria include multidimensional indicators such as recovery of brain structure, restoration of cerebrovascular autoregulation, improvement in cerebrospinal fluid dynamics, and reduction in biomarker levels; and integrating cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence into post-critical care management and rehabilitation planning. This consensus systematically integrates the entire process of neurocritical care management, reflecting the modern connotation of goal-oriented, dynamic, and multimodal integration in neurocritical care medicine. It aims to adapt to new trends such as deepening understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms, the integration of medicine and engineering, and the empowerment of artificial intelligence, thereby further advancing the discipline of critical care medicine.
2.Mechanism of Qingre antai decoction in improving pregnancy outcomes of threatened abortion rats with blood heat syndrome based on JAK2/STAT3 and PI3K/AKT dual signaling pathways
Liya MA ; Yanduo SHEN ; Jiale ZHANG ; Liujun WU ; Bingheng XIE ; Xingfei WU ; Chen LIU ; Minghao ZHANG ; Xuelin ZHANG ; Dawei ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(9):1127-1133
OBJECTIVE To explore the mechanism by which Qingre antai decoction improves pregnancy outcomes of threatened abortion rats with blood heat syndrome. METHODS The pregnant rats were randomly divided into normal group, model group, dydrogesterone group (0.002 g/kg), and Qingre antai decoction group (44.1 g/kg), with 13 rats in each group. Except for normal group, other groups were given warming-yang Chinese medicine and corresponding drugs intragastrically, once a day, for 12 consecutive days. On the 13th day of pregnancy, a single intragastric administration of mifepristone (5 mg/kg) was performed to establish a model of threatened abortion with blood heat syndrome. On the 14th day of pregnancy, the abortion rate and uterine coefficient were calculated; the pathological morphology of pregnant uterine was observed; the serum levels of 3,5,3′-triiodothyronine (T3), thyroid hormone (T4), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), as well as the levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and nitric oxide (NO) in the pregnant uterus were all determined; the expressions of mRNA and protein related to Janus kinase 2 (JAK2)/signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (AKT) pathways were detected. RESULTS Compared with normal group, the model group exhibited endometrial tissue damage, a reduced number of decidual cells, and a significant presence of blood stasis within the uterus; abortion rate, the serum levels of T3, T4 and TSH, the mRNA expressions of JAK2, STAT3 and suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 (SOCS3) as well as protein expressions of p-JAK2, p-STAT3 and SOCS3 in the pregnant uterus were increased significantly ( P <0.05); uterine coefficient, the levels of VEGF and NO in pregnant uterus, mRNA expressions of VEGFR2, PI3K, AKT and endothelial nitric oxide synthase(eNOS), protein expressions of VEGFR2, PI3K and eNOS as well as phosphorylation level of AKT in the pregnant uterus were significantly reduced ( P <0.05). Compared with model group, the endometrial tissue damage and congestion in the Qingre antai decoction group were significantly improved, and the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators were significantly reversed ( P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS Qingre antai decoction can improve the pregnancy outcomes in rats with threatened abortion of blood heat syndrome, the mechanism of which may be associated with inhibiting JAK2/STAT3 pathway and activating PI3K/AKT pathway.
3.Analysis of scalp fungal communities in severe alopecia areata patients by ITS sequencing
Chunlan ZHANG ; Yilong LEI ; Ruixuan CHENG ; Dawei DUAN ; Xin DU ; Wenming ZHOU ; Dandan ZANG ; Feng WANG
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2026;61(3):576-582
ObjectiveTo compare the differences in fungal community composition between lesional and non-lesional scalp areas in patients suffering from severe alopecia areata (AA), and compare these with healthy scalp areas in control subjects. Additionally, to preliminarily explore the changes in scalp fungal communities in severe AA patients and their potential underlying immunological mechanisms. MethodsA total of 20 severe AA patients and 18 healthy controls were enrolled. Skin swab samples were collected from lesional and non-lesional scalp areas of severe AA patients, as well as from the normal scalp of healthy controls. The fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region was amplified and analyzed using high-throughput sequencing. ResultsThe lesional scalp areas of severe AA patients exhibited higher α-diversity and species richness in fungal communities. Notably, the relative abundance of Ascomycota, along with genera such as Mycosphaerella, Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Wallemia, significantly increased in the bald regions. In contrast, Acremonium and Schizophyllum were more predominant in the non-lesional areas of severe AA patients. ConclusionDistinct region-specific differences in scalp fungal microbiota in severe AA patients suggests that fungal dysbiosis may play a potential role in the pathogenesis of alopecia areata. These findings provide new insights into the disease characteristics of severe AA from the perspective of scalp microecology.
4.Intravitreal Conbercept for macular edema secondary to non-ischemic retinal vein occlusion
Min YANG ; Shanshan LI ; Shuang LIU ; Dawei ZHANG
International Eye Science 2026;26(7):1147-1151
AIM:To observe the clinical efficacy of intravitreal injection of conbercept in the treatment of macular edema secondary to non-ischemic retinal vein occlusion(RVO).METHODS: Single center retrospective study. ME patients secondary to non-ischemic RVO admitted to the hospital from January 2023 to March 2024 were selected, and were divided into central retinal vein occlusion(CRVO)group and branch retinal vein occlusion(BRVO)group according to the location of obstruction. All patients were treated with intravitreal injection of conbercept once a month for 3 mo. The best corrected visual acuity(BCVA), macular foveal thickness(CMT), superficial capillary density(SVD), deep capillary density(DVD), and foveal avascular zone(FAZ)area were recorded before and after treatment(with 3 injections per course)at 1, 3, and 6 mo.RESULTS:This study included a total of 120 ME secondary to non-ischemic RVO patients(128 eyes), who were divided into CRVO group(51 cases, 56 eyes, 31 males, 20 females, mean age 61.39±10.32 y)and BRVO group(69 cases, 72 eyes, 41 males, 28 females, mean age 61.48±10.41 y)based on the location of obstruction. There was no significant difference in general data between the two groups before treatment(both P>0.05). After 1, 3, and 6 mo of treatment, both groups showed improvement in BCVA, CMT, SVD, and DVD compared to before treatment(all P<0.05). BCVA in the BRVO group was better than that in the CRVO group at all time points after treatment(all P<0.05), while there was no difference in CMT, SVD, and DVD between the two groups(all P>0.05); There was no significant difference in FAZ area between the two groups before and after treatment(both P>0.05). Follow up for 6 mo showed no significant difference in the incidence of complications between the two groups of patients(both P>0.05), but there was a significant difference in the recurrence rate(P<0.05).CONCLUSION: The first intravitreal injection of conbercept is effective in treating macular edema caused by non-ischemic CRVO and BRVO, improving visual function, reducing macular edema, and repairing retinal structure and blood flow perfusion. Notably, the recovery of visual function and improvement of capillary density are more significant in BRVO patients.
5.Analysis of the impact of high progesterone ovulation induction protocols on embryo euploidy rates and clinical pregnancy outcomes in infertile patients
Minjie WANG ; Yongjing ZHANG ; Jin QIAN ; Chao WANG ; Yuping XU ; Tianjuan WANG ; Dawei CHEN ; Yan HAO ; Qiong XING
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2026;61(5):923-930
ObjectiveTo analyze the effects of the progestin-primed ovarian stimulation (PPOS) protocol on embryo euploidy rate and clinical pregnancy outcomes in infertile patients. MethodsWomen who underwent Preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A) cycles were selected as study participants (a total of 656 cycles and 3 081 blastocysts). Participants were divided into two age groups (≤35 years and >35 years) and further stratified by ovarian stimulation protocol: the Progestin-Primed Ovarian Stimulation (PPOS) group (n=48 and 60, respectively), the Luteal Phase Long Protocol (LP) group (n=160 and 57, respectively), and the Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Antagonist Protocol (AP) group (n=220 and 111, respectively). Baseline characteristics, ovarian stimulation outcomes, and embryo development parameters were compared among the three protocols within each age group. Additionally, clinical pregnancy outcomes of the first frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycle were compared. The primary outcome measure was the embryo euploidy rate. Results① In the ≤35 years age group, baseline follicle-stimulating hormone (bFSH) levels were significantly higher in the PPOS group compared to the LP and AP groups, and the bFSH/bLH ratio was significantly higher in the PPOS group than in the AP group (P < 0.05). In the >35 years age group, bFSH levels in both the PPOS and AP groups were significantly higher than in the LP group (P < 0.05).② In the ≤35 years group, there were no significant differences in the rates of metaphase II (MII) oocytes, 2-pronuclei (2 PN) zygotes, cleavage, 2 PN cleavage, blastocyst formation, high-quality embryos, or embryo euploidy between the PPOS group and either the LP or AP groups. However, the PPOS group showed significantly lower values for the following parameters compared to the other two groups: total oocytes retrieved, number of MII oocytes, number of 2 PN zygotes, number of cleaved embryos, number of 2 PN cleaved embryos, number of blastocysts formed, number of high-quality embryos, number of high-grade blastocysts, number of transferable embryos, number of cryopreserved embryos, number of biopsied blastocysts, number of euploid embryos, and the rate of obtaining at least one euploid embryo. In the >35 years group, no significant differences were observed among the PPOS, LP, and AP groups in the rates of MII oocytes, 2 PN cleavage, blastocyst formation, or in the number of euploid embryos, euploidy rate, and the rate of obtaining at least one euploid embryo. However, the PPOS group had significantly lower numbers of total oocytes retrieved, MII oocytes, 2 PN zygotes, cleaved embryos, 2 PN cleaved embryos, blastocysts formed, transferable embryos, and cryopreserved embryos compared to the LP group (P<0.05). The high-quality embryo rate was significantly lower in the PPOS group than in the AP group (P<0.05). The numbers of high-quality embryos, high-grade blastocysts, and biopsied blastocysts were significantly lower in the PPOS group than in both the LP and AP groups (P<0.05). Notably, the 2 PN fertilization rate was significantly higher in the PPOS group than in the AP group, and the cleavage rate was significantly higher in the PPOS group than in both the LP and AP groups (P<0.05).③ No significant differences were found among the three groups in the biochemical pregnancy rate, clinical pregnancy rate, live birth rate, early miscarriage rate, and late miscarriage rate following the first FET cycle. ConclusionCompared to the other two protocols, the PPOS protocol does not significantly affect embryo euploidy or clinical pregnancy rates. However, in freeze-all cycles with PGT-A, the PPOS protocol does not reduce the rate of chromosomally normal embryos but may decrease the total number of available embryos. It may not be the optimal choice for younger women, but it can be considered as a viable option for women of advanced maternal age.
6.Study on the Mechanism of Gegen Qinlian Decoction in Improving Diabetic Myocardial Injury
Miaomiao JIANG ; Jinping FANG ; Zongxuan HUANG ; Jiamin LI ; Huan LIAO ; Wenqiang ZHANG ; Jiaying YU ; Yanyan YANG ; Dawei LIAN
Laboratory Animal and Comparative Medicine 2026;46(5):629-639
Objective To explore the effect and mechanism of Gegen Qinlian decoction (GQD) on myocardial injury induced by high-fat diet combined with streptozotocin in type 2 diabetic mice through network pharmacology and animal experiments. MethodsNetwork pharmacology was applied to screen the potential signaling pathways of GQD in the intervention of diabetic heart disease (DHD). A total of 36 specific pathogen-free (SPF) male C57BL/6J mice aged 8 weeks were acclimatized for 1 week and randomly divided into a normal control group (n=6) and a model group (n=30). Mice in the model group were fed a 60% high-fat diet and 5% glucose water for 4 weeks, and were intraperitoneally injected with 100 mg/kg streptozotocin after 12 h of fasting to establish the type 2 diabetes model. Mice in the normal control group were given a conventional diet and drinking water, and were intraperitoneally injected with an equal volume of citrate buffer after 12 h of fasting at the same time point. After successful establishment of the diabetic mouse model, the model mice were randomly divided into five groups according to body weight: model control group, GQD low-dose group, GQD medium-dose group, GQD high-dose group, and metformin positive control group, with 6 mice in each group. After 6 weeks of intragastric administration of corresponding doses of GQD, metformin, and ddH2O respectively, all mice in the six groups (one normal control group and five model groups) were anesthetized with inhaled 2% isoflurane, blood samples were collected via eyeball enucleation, and heart tissues were harvested after euthanasia by cardiac exsanguination. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining and wheat germ agglutinin (WGA) staining were performed to observe the pathological damage of myocardial tissues and measure the cross-sectional area of cardiomyocytes. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in serum. Immunohistochemical staining was adopted to determine the protein expression levels of receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE), nucleotide-binding domain leucine-rich repeat and pyrin domain-containing receptor 3 (NLRP3), and phosphorylated nuclear factor-κB p65 (p-p65) in myocardial tissues. ResultsNetwork pharmacology analysis revealed that the targets of GQD against DHD were significantly enriched in inflammatory pathways, including the advanced glycation end products (AGEs)-RAGE axis, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin-17 (IL-17) signaling pathways. HE and WGA staining results showed that, compared with the normal control group, the model control group exhibited myocardial fiber rupture, cardiomyocyte swelling, and significantly increased cardiomyocyte cross-sectional area (P<0.05). Compared with the model control group, GQD intervention significantly ameliorated the pathological changes, including myocardial fiber rupture, cell swelling, and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy. The results of immunohistochemical staining and ELISA indicated that compared with the model control group, GQD intervention markedly downregulated the protein expression of RAGE, NLRP3, and p-p65 in myocardial tissues, as well as the levels of serum pro-inflammatory cytokines (P<0.05). ConclusionGQD can effectively alleviate myocardial pathological injury in diet-induced type 2 diabetic mice, and its mechanism may be related to inhibiting the activation of the RAGE/p-p65/NLRP3 signaling pathway and reducing myocardial inflammatory response.
7.Protective Effect of Xuebijing on Lung Injury in Rats with Severe Acute Pancreatitis by Blocking FPRs/NLRP3 Inflammatory Pathway
Guixian ZHANG ; Dawei LIU ; Xia LI ; Xijing LI ; Pengcheng SHI ; Zhiqiao FENG ; Jun CAI ; Wenhui ZONG ; Xiumei ZHAO ; Hongbin LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(1):113-120
ObjectiveTo explore the therapeutic effect of Xuebijing injection (XBJ) on severe acute pancreatitis induced acute lung injury (SAP-ALI) by regulating formyl peptide receptors (FPRs)/nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor 3 (NLRP3) inflammatory pathway. MethodsSixty rats were randomly divided into a sham group, a SAP-ALI model group, low-, medium-, and high-dose XBJ groups (4, 8, and 12 mL·kg-1), and a positive drug (BOC2, 0.2 mg·kg-1) group. For the sham group, the pancreas of rats was only gently flipped after laparotomy, and then the abdomen was closed, while for the remaining five groups, SAP-ALI rat models were established by retrograde injection of 5% sodium taurocholate (Na-Tc) via the biliopancreatic duct. XBJ and BOC2 were administered via intraperitoneal injection once daily for 3 d prior to modeling and 0.5 h after modeling. Blood was collected from the abdominal aorta 6 h after the completion of modeling, and the expression of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) in plasma was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The amount of ascites was measured, and the dry-wet weight ratios of pancreatic and lung tissue were determined. Pancreatic and lung tissue was taken for hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining to observe pathological changes and then scored. The protein expression levels of FPR1, FPR2, and NLRP3 in lung tissue were detected by the immunohistochemical method. Western blot was used to detect the expression of FPR1, FPR2, and NLRP3 in lung tissue. Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was used to detect the mRNA expression of FPR1, FPR2, and NLRP3 in lung tissue. ResultsCompared with the sham group, the SAP-ALI model group showed significantly decreased dry-wet weight ratio of lung tissue (P<0.01), serious pathological changes of lung tissue, a significantly increased pathological score (P<0.01), and significantly increased protein and mRNA expression levels of FPR1, FPR2, and NLRP3 in lung tissue (P<0.01). After BOC2 intervention, the above detection indicators were significantly reversed (P<0.01). After treatment with XBJ, the groups of different XBJ doses achieved results consistent with BOC2 intervention. ConclusionXBJ can effectively improve the inflammatory response of the lungs in SAP-ALI rats and reduce damage. The mechanism may be related to inhibiting the expression of FPRs and NLRP3 in lung tissue, which thereby reduces IL-1β and simultaneously antagonize the release of inflammatory factors IL-6 and TNF-α.
8.Signaling Pathways Related to Polycystic Ovary Syndrome and Regulation by Traditional Chinese Medicine: A Review
Manman YAO ; Liya MA ; Dawei ZHANG ; Xuelin ZHANG ; Xuan ZHOU ; Yu TANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(3):301-312
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is one of the most prevalent gynecological diseases, and its incidence is increasing year by year, seriously affecting the physical and mental health of female patients. The pathogenesis of this disease is complex and has not been fully clarified. At present, PCOS is mainly treated by Western medicine, which, however, has poor efficacy and induces various adverse reactions. Therefore, developing safe and effective therapies has become a difficult problem that needs to be solved. Studies have confirmed that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) can regulate phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/protein kinase B(PI3K/Akt), mitogen-activated protein kinase/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (MAPK/ERK), Toll-like receptor 4/nuclear factor-κB (TLR4/NF-κB), transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β)/Smads, secreted glycoprotein/β-catenin (Wnt/β-catenin), adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK), and advanced glycation endproduct/receptor for advanced glycation endproducts (AGE/RAGE) signaling pathways to ameliorate insulin resistance, inhibit inflammation and oxidative stress, regulate endocrine hormone disorders, and intervene in apoptosis and autophagy, thus alleviating the symptoms, slowing down the disease progression, and improving the ovarian function. The treatment of PCOS with TCM has demonstrated definite effects and high safety. Therefore, exploring this disease from cellular and molecular perspectives can provide a theoretical basis for its clinical treatment and new drug development. However, there is a lack of systematic reviews on the modulation of relevant signaling pathways by TCM in the treatment of PCOS. This article reviews the research progress in the treatment of PCOS with the active ingredients and compound prescriptions of TCM by regulating relevant signaling pathways in recent years, with the aim of providing evidence to support the promotion of TCM for treating PCOS in the future.
9.Application of preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic disorders in families with hereditary epilepsy
Wenxiang Zhang ; Dawei Chen ; Tianjuan Wang ; Yunxia Cao
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(9):1725-1729
Objective:
To evaluate the clinical efficacy of preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic disorders(PGT-M) in families with hereditary epilepsy.
Methods :
Whole-exome sequencing(WES) and familial co-segregation analysis were performed to validate the pathogenicity of variants(PCDH19 c. 1031C > G and LGI1 c. 856T >G) in two monogenic epilepsy families. A clinical PGT-M pathway was implemented,and reproductive outcomes were tracked.
Results:
In Family 1(PCDH19 likely pathogenic variant),13 blastocysts were biopsied over two ovarian stimulation cycles,yielding 3 unaffected euploid embryos(23. 1%). After the third frozen embryo transfer,a healthy male infant was successfully delivered. Prenatal diagnosis confirmed that the fetus did not carry the pathogenic variant PCDH19. Family 2(LGI1 variant of uncertain significance,VUS) screened 14 blastocysts,identifying 2 unaffected euploid embryos(14. 3%),with the first transfer unsuccessful. A clinical pregnancy was currently ongoing following the second frozen-thawed embryo transfer(FET).
Conclusion
PGT-M can precisely block the vertical transmission of monogenic epileptic pathogenic variants,offering an effective reproductive intervention strategy for families with hereditary epilepsy.
10.Prediction of suitable habitats of Phlebotomus chinensis in Gansu Province based on the Biomod2 ensemble model
Dawei YU ; Yandong HOU ; Aiwei HE ; Yu FENG ; Guobing YANG ; Chengming YANG ; Hong LIANG ; Hailiang ZHANG ; Fan LI
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(3):276-283
Objective To investigate the suitable habitats of Phlebotomus chinensis in Gansu Province, so as provide insights into effective management of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL). Methods The geographical coordinates of locations where MT-ZVL cases were reported were retrieved in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2023, and data pertaining to 26 environmental variables were captured, including 19 climatic variables (annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter), five geographical variables (elevation, annual normalized difference vegetation index, vegetation type, landform type and land use type), and two population and economic variables (population distribution and gross domestic product). Twelve species distribution models were built using the biomod2 package in R project, including surface range envelope (SRE) model, generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model, generalized boosted model (GBM), classification tree analysis (CTA) model, flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, optimized maximum entropy (MAXNET) model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, random forest (RF) model, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST) model. The performance of 12 models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa coefficient, and single models with high performance was selected to build the optimal ensemble models. Factors affecting the survival of Ph. chinensis were identified based on climatic, geographical, population and economic variables. In addition, the suitable distribution areas of Ph. chinensis were predicted in Gansu Province under shared socioeconomic pathway 126 (SSP126), SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios based on climatic data during the period from 1991 to 2020, from 2041 to 2060 (2050s), and from 2081 to 2100 (2090s) . Results A total of 11 species distribution models were successfully built for prediction of potential distribution areas of Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province, and the RF model had the highest predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.998). The ensemble model built based on the RF model, XGBOOST model, GLM, and MARS model had an increased predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.999) relative to single models. Among the 26 environmental factors, precipitation of the wettest quarter (12.00%), maximum temperature of the warmest month (11.58%), and annual normalized difference vegetation index (11.29%) had the greatest contributions to suitable habitats distribution of Ph. sinensis. Under the climatic conditions from 1991 to 2020, the potential suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province was approximately 5.80 × 104 km2, of which the highly suitable area was 1.42 × 104 km2, and primarily concentrated in the southernmost region of Gansu Province. By the 2050s, the unsuitable and lowly suitable areas for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province had decreased by varying degrees compared to that of 1991 to 2020 period, while the moderately and highly suitable areas exhibited expansion and migration. By the 2090s, under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis increased significantly, and under the SSP585 scenario, the highly suitable areas transformed into extremely suitable areas, also showing substantial growth. Future global warming is conducive to the survival and reproduction of Ph. chinensis. From the 2050s to the 2090s, the highly suitable areas for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province will be projected to expand northward. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province is expected to increase by 194.75% and 204.79% in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, compared to that of the 1991 to 2020 period. Under the SSP370 scenario, the moderately and highly suitable areas will be projected to increase by 164.40% and 209.03% in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, while under the SSP585 scenario, they are expected to increase by 195.98% and 211.66%, respectively. Conclusions The distribution of potential suitable habitats of Ph. sinensis gradually shifts with climatic changes. Intensified surveillance and management of Ph. sinensis is recommended in central and eastern parts of Gansu Province to support early warning of MT-ZVL.


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