1.Age-period-cohort model and prediction of the incidence trend of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2021
Qianwen ZHAO ; Xin SHE ; Lijun GENG ; Danli PENG ; Shanshan LIU
Practical Oncology Journal 2024;38(5):289-294
Objective The objective of this study was to analyze the long-term change trend of gastric cancer incidence in China from 1990 to 2021,and to provide scientific suggestion for the prevention and control of gastric cancer in China.Methods The incidence burden data of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database.The age-period-cohort model was to evaluate its independent effects,and the Nordpred model was used to predict its incidence trend from 2022 to 2031.Results The number and incidence of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2021 in China showed an upward trend,while the age-standardized incidence showed a decreasing trend.The results of age-period-cohort model showed that in the same birth cohort,the incidence of gastric cancer in China increased with age,the incidence of the total population increases from 0.91/100,000 to 233.37/100,000 in total population,the incidence of men increases from 0.91/100,000 to 508.90/100,000,and the incidence of women increases from 1.04/100,000 to 115.86/100,000.During the period from 1992-1996 to 2017-2021,the relative risk(RR)of gastric cancer incidence showed a decreasing trend with the passage of time.The RR of the total population period decreased from 1.10 to 0.72,with males decreasing from 1.06 to 0.75 and females decreasing from 1.19 to 0.65.The later the birth cohort through-out the birth cohort years,the lower the risk of onset;The RR of gastric cancer incidence in the total population decreased from 1.60 to 0.34,from 1.36 to 0.40 for males and from 2.23 to 0.22 for females.The incidence prediction results showed that by 2031,the in-cidence of gastric cancer would increase to 470,429 cases,including 323,399 cases for men and 147,029 cases for women.The stand-ardized incidence of the total population would decrease to 23.80/100,000 cases,35.13/100,000 cases for men and 24.17/100,000 cases for women.Conclusion The prevention and treatment measures of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2021 have achieved certain re-sults in reducing the risk of gastric cancer,but the incidence of gastric cancer is still serious,and it is necessary to focus on strengthe-ning the intervention for men over 50 years old.
2.Age-period-cohort model and prediction of the incidence trend of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2021
Qianwen ZHAO ; Xin SHE ; Lijun GENG ; Danli PENG ; Shanshan LIU
Practical Oncology Journal 2024;38(5):289-294
Objective The objective of this study was to analyze the long-term change trend of gastric cancer incidence in China from 1990 to 2021,and to provide scientific suggestion for the prevention and control of gastric cancer in China.Methods The incidence burden data of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database.The age-period-cohort model was to evaluate its independent effects,and the Nordpred model was used to predict its incidence trend from 2022 to 2031.Results The number and incidence of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2021 in China showed an upward trend,while the age-standardized incidence showed a decreasing trend.The results of age-period-cohort model showed that in the same birth cohort,the incidence of gastric cancer in China increased with age,the incidence of the total population increases from 0.91/100,000 to 233.37/100,000 in total population,the incidence of men increases from 0.91/100,000 to 508.90/100,000,and the incidence of women increases from 1.04/100,000 to 115.86/100,000.During the period from 1992-1996 to 2017-2021,the relative risk(RR)of gastric cancer incidence showed a decreasing trend with the passage of time.The RR of the total population period decreased from 1.10 to 0.72,with males decreasing from 1.06 to 0.75 and females decreasing from 1.19 to 0.65.The later the birth cohort through-out the birth cohort years,the lower the risk of onset;The RR of gastric cancer incidence in the total population decreased from 1.60 to 0.34,from 1.36 to 0.40 for males and from 2.23 to 0.22 for females.The incidence prediction results showed that by 2031,the in-cidence of gastric cancer would increase to 470,429 cases,including 323,399 cases for men and 147,029 cases for women.The stand-ardized incidence of the total population would decrease to 23.80/100,000 cases,35.13/100,000 cases for men and 24.17/100,000 cases for women.Conclusion The prevention and treatment measures of gastric cancer from 1990 to 2021 have achieved certain re-sults in reducing the risk of gastric cancer,but the incidence of gastric cancer is still serious,and it is necessary to focus on strengthe-ning the intervention for men over 50 years old.
3.Discharge heart rate and 1-year clinical outcomes in heart failure patients with atrial fibrillation.
Fuwei XING ; Xin ZHENG ; Lihua ZHANG ; Shuang HU ; Xueke BAI ; Danli HU ; Bing LI ; Jing LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2021;135(1):52-62
BACKGROUND:
The association between heart rate and 1-year clinical outcomes in heart failure (HF) patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), and whether this association depends on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), are unclear. We investigated the relationship between discharge heart rate and 1-year clinical outcomes after discharge among hospitalized HF patients with AF, and further explored this association that differ by LVEF level.
METHODS:
In this analysis, we enrolled 1760 hospitalized HF patients with AF from the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Prospective Heart Failure study from August 2016 to May 2018. Patients were categorized into three groups with low (<65 beats per minute [bpm]), moderate (65-85 bpm), and high (≥86 bpm) heart rate measured at discharge. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to explore the association between heart rate and 1-year primary outcome, which was defined as a composite outcome of all-cause death and HF rehospitalization.
RESULTS:
Among 1760 patients, 723 (41.1%) were women, the median age was 69 (interquartile range [IQR]: 60-77) years, median discharge heart rate was 75 (IQR: 69-84) bpm, and 934 (53.1%) had an LVEF <50%. During 1-year follow-up, a total of 792 (45.0%) individuals died or had at least one HF hospitalization. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, smoking status, medical history, anthropometric characteristics, and medications used at discharge, the groups with low (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.68, P = 0.020) and high (HR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.07-1.67, P = 0.009) heart rate were associated with a higher risk of 1-year primary outcome compared with the moderate group. A significant interaction between discharge heart rate and LVEF for the primary outcome was observed (P for interaction was 0.045). Among the patients with LVEF ≥50%, only those with high heart rate were associated with a higher risk of primary outcome compared with the group with moderate heart rate (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.01-1.89, P = 0.046), whereas there was no difference between the groups with low and moderate heart rate. Among the patients with LVEF <50%, only those with low heart rate were associated with a higher risk of primary outcome compared with the group with moderate heart rate (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.09-1.96, P = 0.012), whereas there was no difference between the groups with high and moderate heart rate.
CONCLUSIONS:
Among the overall HF patients with AF, both low (<65 bpm) and high (≥86 bpm) heart rates were associated with poorer outcomes as compared with moderate (65-85 bpm) heart rate. Among patients with LVEF ≥50%, only a high heart rate was associated with higher risk; while among those with LVEF <50%, only a low heart rate was associated with higher risk as compared with the group with moderate heart rate.
TRAIL REGISTRATION
Clinicaltrials.gov; NCT02878811.
Aged
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Atrial Fibrillation
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Female
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Heart Failure
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Heart Rate
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Humans
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Male
;
Middle Aged
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Patient Discharge
;
Prospective Studies
;
Stroke Volume
;
Ventricular Function, Left
4.Four cases report of functional visual loss
Zhu HUANG ; Danli XIN ; Yangshun GU
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(medical Science) 2010;30(1):118-120
Functional visual loss is caused by the functional disturbance of visual cortical area, which is induced by strong emotion impact. With the characteristics of diverse clinic symptoms, functional visual loss is usually hard to be identified and diagnosed. Four cases of functional visual loss are reported in this article. The patients were diagnosed by the query of medical history, observation of behavior and some examinations such as foggy test. The patients received suggestibility treatment, and achieved favourable therapeutic effect.

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