1.Comparison of the prediction effects of LSTM, SARIMA and SARIMAX models on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
ZHANG Xiaoqiao ; ZHANG Xiaodie ; ZHAO Zhenxi ; XIE Pengliu ; DAI Min
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(3):280-284,287
Objective:
To compare the effects of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) , seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) models in predicting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD).
Methods:
Monthly incidence data of HFMD in Kunming City from 2010 to 2019 were collected. SARIMA, SARIMAX and LSTM models were established using the monthly incidence of HFMD from 2010 to 2018 to predict the monthly incidence of HFMD from January to December 2019. The prediction performance of the three models was compared using mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The optimal prediction model was selected based on the principle of minimizing MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE.
Results:
The HFMD cases were reported every month in Kunming City from 2010 to 2019, with the incidence fluctuating between 188.27/105 and 363.15/105. The disease exhibited a biennial high-incidence bimodal distribution. Among the four evaluation indicators for the training and testing sets, the LSTM model had the smaller values: MSE was 63.182 and 102.745, RMSE was 7.949 and 10.136, MAE was 6.535 and 7.620, and MAPE was 46.726% and 31.138%. The LSTM model performed the better, followed by the SARIMA model, while the SARIMAX model had the relatively poorest performance.
Conclusion
The LSTM model outperforms the SARIMA and SARIMAX models in predicting the incidence of HFMD.
2.Correlation analysis of clinical features between wet and dry gangrene in diabetic foot.
Yu-Zhen WANG ; Cheng-Lin JIA ; Yong-Kang ZHANG ; Jun-Lin DENG ; Zong-Hao DAI ; Cheng ZHAO ; Ye-Min CAO
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(9):884-890
OBJECTIVE:
To explore clinical characteristics, lesion sites and correlation differences of different types of diabetic foot gangrene, and to provide evidence-based basis for clinical classification of diabetic foot gangrene.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 266 patients with newly diagnosed diabetic foot gangrene who were admitted from January 2018 to December 2018, including 183 males and 83 females, aged from 35 to 92 years old with an average of (69.55±10.84) years old, and they were divided into wet gangrene group and dry gangrene group according to the different natures of gangrene. There were 139 patients in wet gangrene group, including 98 males and 41 females, aged from 35 to 90 years old with an average of (68.95±10.93) years old. There were 127 patients in dry gangrene group, including 85 males and 42 females, aged from 38 to 92 years old with an average of (70.21±10.75) years old. Body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), body temperature, skin temperature difference between the affected and healthy sides of the lower extremities, and Wagner grade between two groups were recorded to evaluate symptoms and signs. The white blood cell count (WBC), neutrophil percentage (NEUT%), and C-reactive protein (C-reactive protein), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), procalcitonin (PCT), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in peripheral blood between two groups were detected and compared to evaluate the infection status;the severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) was evaluated by using Toronto Clinical Scoring System (TCSS);the degree of pain in patients with diabetic foot gangrene was evaluated by numerical rating scale (NRS); ankle-brachial index (ABI) and popliteal artery blood flow velocity were used to evaluate the degree of arterial lesions. Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlations between gangrene TCSS, ABI and age, BMI, WHR, body temperature, calf skin temperature difference, WBC, NEUT%, CRP, ESR, PCT, IL-6, NRS, and Wagner classification indicators.
RESULTS:
The body temperature, skin temperature difference between the affected and healthy sides of the lower extremities, Wagner grade, WBC, NEUT%, CRP, ESR, PCT, IL-6, TCSS score, ABI, and popliteal artery blood flow velocity in wet gangrene group were higher than those in dry gangrene group (P<0.01), and BMI, WHR, and NRS score in dry gangrene group were higher than those in wet gangrene group;the differences were all statistically significant (P<0.01). The results of Spearman correlation analysis showed TCSS score of gangrene patients was correlated with body temperature (r=0.214), calf skin temperature difference (r=0.364), WBC (r=0.240), NEUT% (r=0.291), CRP (r=0.347), ESR (r=0.167), PCT (r=0.241), IL-6 (r=0.316), and popliteal fossa arterial blood flow velocity (r=0.261) and Wagner grade (r=0.273) were positively correlated, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.01). ABI was negatively correlated with age (r=-0.183), BMI (r=-0.252), WHR (r=-0.288), and NRS score (r=-0.354), and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.01).
CONCLUSION
Diabetic foot gangrene is an extremely difficult and critical disease. Wet gangrene has a significant synergic effect with infection and neuropathy, while dry gangrene is closely related to vascular occlusion. The main contradiction of gangrene could be revealed through blood vessels, nerves and infection, providing evidence-based basis for the selection of debridement timing, anti-infection strategies and revascularization, with the aim of reducing the risk of amputation.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Diabetic Foot/diagnosis*
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Adult
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Gangrene/physiopathology*
;
C-Reactive Protein
3.Dislocations deteriorate postoperative functional outcomes in supination-external rotation ankle fractures.
Sheng-Ye HU ; Mu-Min CAO ; Yuan-Wei ZHANG ; Liu SHI ; Guang-Chun DAI ; Ya-Kuan ZHAO ; Tian XIE ; Hui CHEN ; Yun-Feng RUI
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(2):124-129
PURPOSE:
To assess the relationship between dislocation and functional outcomes in supination-external rotation (SER) ankle fractures.
METHODS:
A retrospective case series study was performed on patients with ankle fractures treated surgically at a large trauma center from January 2015 to December 2021. The inclusion criteria were young and middle-aged patients of 18 - 65 years with SER ankle fractures that can be classified by Lauge-Hansen classification and underwent surgery at our trauma center. Exclusion criteria were serious life-threatening diseases, open fractures, fractures delayed for more than 3 weeks, fracture sites ≥ 2, etc. Then patients were divided into dislocation and no-dislocation groups. Patient demographics, injury characteristics, surgery-related outcomes, and postoperative functional outcomes were collected and analyzed. The functional outcomes of SER ankle fractures were assessed postoperatively at 1-year face-to-face follow-up using the foot and ankle outcome score (FAOS) and American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society ankle hindfoot score and by 2 experienced orthopedic physicians. Relevant data were analyzed using SPSS version 22.0 by Chi-square or t-test.
RESULTS:
During the study period, there were 371 ankle fractures. Among them, 190 (51.2%) were SER patterns with 69 (36.3%) combined with dislocations. Compared with the no-dislocation group, the dislocation group showed no statistically significant differences in gender, age composition, fracture type, diabetes, or smoking history, preoperative waiting time, operation time, and length of hospital stay (all p > 0.05), but a significantly higher Lauge-Hansen injury grade (p < 0.001) and syndesmotic screw fixation rate (p = 0.033). Moreover, the functional recovery was poorer, revealing a significantly lower FAOS in the sport/rec scale (p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that among SER IV ankle fracture patients, FAOS was much lower in pain (p = 0.042) and sport/rec scales (p < 0.001) for those with dislocations. American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society ankle hindfoot score revealed no significant difference between dislocation and no-dislocation patients.
CONCLUSION
Dislocation in SER ankle fractures suggests more severe injury and negatively affects functional recovery, mainly manifested as more pain and poorer motor function, especially in SER IV ankle cases.
Humans
;
Ankle Fractures/physiopathology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Adult
;
Middle Aged
;
Supination
;
Aged
;
Young Adult
;
Rotation
;
Joint Dislocations/surgery*
;
Fracture Fixation, Internal/methods*
;
Adolescent
;
Recovery of Function
;
Treatment Outcome
4.Correlation of ARID5B Gene Polymorphism and Risk of Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia and Minimal Residual Disease.
Yu MA ; Ya-Dai GAO ; Jing GUO ; Xiao-Min ZHENG ; Xiao-Chun ZHANG
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2025;33(5):1269-1273
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the correlation between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of ARID5B gene and the risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and minimal residual disease (MRD) in children of Hui and Han nationality in Ningxia.
METHODS:
In this case-control study, 54 ALL children and control group with matched age, sex and nationality were detected for the polymorphism of ARID5B gene using fluorescence resonance energy transfer technique, and the susceptibility of different ALL genotypes and their correlation with MRD were analyzed.
RESULTS:
There were no significant differences in genotype and allele frequency of rs10994982, rs7089424, rs10740055, rs7073837, rs4245595 and rs7090445 between the two groups (P >0.05). At the locus of rs10821936, the frequencies of T/T genotype and T allele in ALL group were significantly higher than those in the control group (both P < 0.05). The C/C genotype of ARID5B gene SNP rs10821936 was a risk factor for early MRD positive in ALL children ( P < 0.05).
CONCLUSION
ARID5B gene SNP rs10821936 is related to the development of childhood ALL and MRD.
Humans
;
Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma/genetics*
;
Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Neoplasm, Residual/genetics*
;
DNA-Binding Proteins/genetics*
;
Transcription Factors/genetics*
;
Genotype
;
Genetic Predisposition to Disease
;
Gene Frequency
;
Child
;
Male
;
Female
;
Alleles
;
Risk Factors
;
Child, Preschool
5.Summary of 16-Year Observation of Reflux Esophagitis-Like Symptoms in A Natural Village in A High-Incidence Area of Esophageal Cancer
Junqing LIU ; Lingling LEI ; Yaru FU ; Xin SONG ; Jingjing WANG ; Xueke ZHAO ; Min LIU ; Zongmin FAN ; Fangzhou DAI ; Xuena HAN ; Zhuo YANG ; Kan ZHONG ; Sai YANG ; Qiang ZHANG ; Qide BAO ; Lidong WANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2025;52(6):461-465
Objective To investigate the screening results and factors affecting abnormal detection rates among high-risk groups of esophageal cancer and to explore effective intervention measures. Methods We investigated and collected the information on gender, education level, age, marital status, symptoms of reflux esophagitis (heartburn, acid reflux, belching, hiccup, foreign body sensation in the pharynx, and difficulty swallowing), consumption of pickled vegetables, salt use, and esophageal cancer incidence of villagers in a natural village in Wenfeng District, Anyang City, Henan Province. Changes in reflux esophagitis symptoms in the high-incidence area of esophageal cancer before and after 16 years were observed, and the relationship of such changes with esophageal cancer was analyzed. Results In 2008, 711 cases were epidemiologically investigated, including
6.Prospective Study of Disease Occurrence Spectrum in Asymptomatic Residents in Areas with High Incidence of Esophageal Cancer: 16-year Observation of 711 Cases in Natural Population
Qide BAO ; Fangzhou DAI ; Xueke ZHAO ; Jingjing WANG ; Xin SONG ; Zongmin FAN ; Yanfang ZHANG ; Zhuo YANG ; Junfang GUO ; Kan ZHONG ; Qiang ZHANG ; Junqing LIU ; Min LIU ; Lidong WANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2025;52(8):656-660
Objective To understand the disease spectrum of a natural village in an area with high incidence of esophageal cancer to provide a reference for precise prevention and control. Methods From 2008 to 2024, 711 asymptomatic people over the age of 35 years in a natural village with high incidence of esophageal cancer in China were surveyed, and 171 of them were subjected to gastroscopy, biopsy, and pathological examination. All participants were followed up for a long time, and their disease history was recorded. Results A total of 16 years of follow-up were performed, and 703 people were effectively followed up. In 2008, 171 people underwent gastroscopy, and 160 people had biopsy and pathological results in endoscopic screening. By 2024, 76 people had been diagnosed with malignant tumors of 12 different types, and among these people, 45 had esophageal cancer. Conclusion Esophageal cancer remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality from malignant tumors in this region. Biopsy and pathological examination should be strengthened during gastroscopy, and follow-ups and regular check-ups should be given high importance to reduce the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer.
7.A Case of Multidisciplinary Treatment for Deficiency of Adenosine Deaminase 2
Jingyuan ZHANG ; Xiaoqi WU ; Jiayuan DAI ; Xianghong JIN ; Yuze CAO ; Rui LUO ; Hanlin ZHANG ; Tiekuan DU ; Xiaotian CHU ; Peipei CHEN ; Hao QIAN ; Pengguang YAN ; Jin XU ; Min SHEN
JOURNAL OF RARE DISEASES 2025;4(3):316-324
This case report presents a 16-year-old male patient with deficiency of adenosine deaminase 2(DADA2). The patient had a history of Raynaud′s phenomenon with digital ulcers since childhood. As the disease progressed, the patient developed retinal vasculitis, intracranial hemorrhage, skin necrosis, severe malnutrition, refractory hypertension, and gastrointestinal bleeding. Genetic testing revealed compound heterozygous mutations in the
8.Advances in application of small-molecule compounds in neuronal reprogramming.
Zi-Wei DAI ; Hong LIU ; Yi-Min YUAN ; Jing-Yi ZHANG ; Shang-Yao QIN ; Zhi-Da SU
Acta Physiologica Sinica 2025;77(1):181-193
Neuronal reprogramming is an innovative technique for converting non-neuronal somatic cells into neurons that can be used to replace lost or damaged neurons, providing a potential effective therapeutic strategy for central nervous system (CNS) injuries or diseases. Transcription factors have been used to induce neuronal reprogramming, while their reprogramming efficiency is relatively low, and the introduction of exogenous genes may result in host gene instability or induce gene mutation. Therefore, their future clinical application may be hindered by these safety concerns. Compared with transcription factors, small-molecule compounds have unique advantages in the field of neuronal reprogramming, which can overcome many limitations of traditional transcription factor-induced neuronal reprogramming. Here, we review the recent progress in the research of small-molecule compound-mediated neuronal reprogramming and its application in CNS regeneration and repair.
Humans
;
Cellular Reprogramming/drug effects*
;
Neurons/cytology*
;
Animals
;
Transcription Factors
;
Small Molecule Libraries/pharmacology*
;
Nerve Regeneration
9.A thermo-sensitive hydrogel targeting macrophage reprogramming for sustained osteoarthritis pain relief.
Yue LIU ; Kai ZHOU ; Xinlong HE ; Kun SHI ; Danrong HU ; Chenli YANG ; Jinrong PENG ; Yuqi HE ; Guoyan ZHAO ; Yi KANG ; Yujun ZHANG ; Yue'e DAI ; Min ZENG ; Feier XIAN ; Wensheng ZHANG ; Zhiyong QIAN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(11):6034-6051
Osteoarthritis (OA) causes chronic pain that significantly impairs quality of life, with current treatments often proving insufficient and accompanied by adverse effects. Recent research has identified the dorsal root ganglion (DRG) and its resident macrophages as crucial mediators of chronic OA pain through neuroinflammation driven by macrophage polarization. We present a novel injectable thermo-sensitive hydrogel system, KAF@PLEL, designed to deliver an anti-inflammatory peptide (KAF) specifically to the DRG. This biodegradable hydrogel enables sustained KAF release, promoting the reprogramming of DRG macrophages from pro-inflammatory to anti-inflammatory phenotypes. Through comprehensive in vitro and in vivo studies, we evaluated the hydrogel's biocompatibility, effects on macrophage polarization, and therapeutic efficacy in chronic OA pain management. The system demonstrated significant capabilities in preserving macrophage mitochondrial function, suppressing neuroinflammation, alleviating chronic OA pain, reducing cartilage degradation, and improving motor function in OA rat models. The sustained-release properties of KAF@PLEL enabled prolonged therapeutic effects while minimizing systemic exposure and side effects. These findings suggest that KAF@PLEL represents a promising therapeutic approach for improving outcomes in OA patients through targeted, sustained treatment.
10.Glutamine signaling specifically activates c-Myc and Mcl-1 to facilitate cancer cell proliferation and survival.
Meng WANG ; Fu-Shen GUO ; Dai-Sen HOU ; Hui-Lu ZHANG ; Xiang-Tian CHEN ; Yan-Xin SHEN ; Zi-Fan GUO ; Zhi-Fang ZHENG ; Yu-Peng HU ; Pei-Zhun DU ; Chen-Ji WANG ; Yan LIN ; Yi-Yuan YUAN ; Shi-Min ZHAO ; Wei XU
Protein & Cell 2025;16(11):968-984
Glutamine provides carbon and nitrogen to support the proliferation of cancer cells. However, the precise reason why cancer cells are particularly dependent on glutamine remains unclear. In this study, we report that glutamine modulates the tumor suppressor F-box and WD repeat domain-containing 7 (FBW7) to promote cancer cell proliferation and survival. Specifically, lysine 604 (K604) in the sixth of the 7 substrate-recruiting WD repeats of FBW7 undergoes glutaminylation (Gln-K604) by glutaminyl tRNA synthetase. Gln-K604 inhibits SCFFBW7-mediated degradation of c-Myc and Mcl-1, enhances glutamine utilization, and stimulates nucleotide and DNA biosynthesis through the activation of c-Myc. Additionally, Gln-K604 promotes resistance to apoptosis by activating Mcl-1. In contrast, SIRT1 deglutaminylates Gln-K604, thereby reversing its effects. Cancer cells lacking Gln-K604 exhibit overexpression of c-Myc and Mcl-1 and display resistance to chemotherapy-induced apoptosis. Silencing both c-MYC and MCL-1 in these cells sensitizes them to chemotherapy. These findings indicate that the glutamine-mediated signal via Gln-K604 is a key driver of cancer progression and suggest potential strategies for targeted cancer therapies based on varying Gln-K604 status.
Glutamine/metabolism*
;
Myeloid Cell Leukemia Sequence 1 Protein/genetics*
;
Humans
;
Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-myc/genetics*
;
Cell Proliferation
;
Signal Transduction
;
Neoplasms/pathology*
;
F-Box-WD Repeat-Containing Protein 7/genetics*
;
Cell Survival
;
Cell Line, Tumor
;
Apoptosis


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