1.Construction of a nomogram model for clinical cure of chronic hepatitis B with a low level of hepatitis B surface antigen treated with pegylated interferon α-2b
Yingyuan ZHANG ; Huan MU ; Lixian CHANG ; Danqing XU ; Yuanzhen WANG ; Chunyun LIU ; Weikun LI ; Huangchenghao ZHANG ; Chunyan MOU ; Li LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(5):1038-1047
ObjectiveTo investigate the predictive factors for HBsAg clearance in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with a low level of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) treated with pegylated interferon α-2b (PEG-IFN-α-2b), to establish a combined predictive model and a nomogram based on multiple factors, and to provide a reference for formulating individualized treatment regimens and predicting treatment outcome in clinical practice. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 167 CHB patients with HBsAg <1 500 IU/mL who attended The Third People’s Hospital of Kunming from January 2022 to January 2024 and were treated with PEG-IFN-α-2b. According to whether clinical cure was achieved, the patients were divided into HBsAg clearance group and HBsAg non-clearance group. Related data were collected, including general information and serological/biochemical/virological indicators at different time points during treatment. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent influencing factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the value of indicators used alone or in combination in predicting clinical cure, and calibration curves were plotted to assess the risk prediction model. ResultsThe univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences between the two groups in age (t=-6.839, P<0.05), history of nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment for over 1 year (χ2=59.339, P<0.05), genotype (χ2=4.610, P<0.05), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (χ2=5.319, P<0.05), hepatitis B virus DNA status before treatment (χ2=60.861, P <0.05), compensated liver cirrhosis (χ2=10.960, P<0.05), HBeAg status before treatment (χ2=19.060, P<0.05), a history of interferon treatment (χ2=8.162, P<0.05), presence of interferon antibodies after treatment (χ2=12.858, P<0.05), HBsAg level before treatment (Z=-7.412, P<0.05), alanine aminotransaminase (ALT) level at baseline (Z=-6.117, P<0.05), ALT level at 12 weeks of treatment (Z=-7.171, P<0.05), platelet count (PLT) at 24 weeks of treatment (Z=-3.622, P<0.05), and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level at 24 weeks of treatment (Z=-2.830, P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR]=1.230, P=0.007), history of nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment for over 1 year (OR=0.008, P=0.011), HBeAg status before treatment (OR=0.003, P=0.012), HBsAg level before treatment (OR=1.005, P=0.014), ALT level at baseline (OR=0.949, P=0.014), ALT level at 12 weeks of treatment (OR=0.969, P=0.016), PLT at 24 weeks of treatment (OR=0.969, P=0.022), and TSH level at 24 weeks of treatment (OR=3.608, P=0.045) were independent influencing factors for HBsAg clearance at 48 weeks of treatment in CHB patients with HBsAg <1 500 IU/mL. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded χ2=1.398, P=0.994, indicating that the model had good fitting. The Bootstrap method was used to perform internal validation of the nomogram model, and there was a good degree of fitting between the calibration curve and the ideal curve, with a mean absolute error of 0.029. The ROC curve analysis showed that the combination of predictive factors had an area under the ROC curve of 0.982 (95% confidence interval: 0.961 — 0.999), with a sensitivity of 94.10% and a specificity of 93.10%, suggesting that the nomogram model had a good discriminatory ability. For the CHB patients with HBsAg <1 500 IU/mL and different features, further analysis of HBsAg clearance rate at 48 weeks of treatment showed an HBsAg clearance rate of 69.60% for those with HBsAg ≤67.65 IU/mL before treatment, 58.30% for those with a baseline ALT level of ≥62.50 U/L, 68.30% for those with an ALT level of ≥92.50 U/L at 12 weeks of treatment, 42.40% for those with PLT ≥104×109/L at 24 weeks of treatment, and 48.30% for those with a TSH level of ≤1.38 μIU/mL at 24 weeks of treatment, with significant differences between the two groups (all P<0.001). ConclusionAge, history of nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment for over 1 year, HBeAg status before treatment, HBsAg level before treatment, baseline ALT level, ALT level at 12 weeks of treatment, PLT level at 24 weeks, and TSH level at 24 weeks of treatment are independent predictive factors. The combined prediction nomogram model constructed in this study has a relatively high value in predicting clinical cure at 48 weeks of PEG-IFN-α-2b treatment in CHB patients with HBsAg<1 500 IU/mL, thereby providing a reference for selecting suitable treatment population and predicting clinical cure.
2.Diagnostic value of cytokines combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score in predicting hepatic encephalopathy in end-stage liver disease
Jinyu XIANG ; Lixian CHANG ; Yingyuan ZHANG ; Huan MU ; Wenyan LI ; Hongyan WEI ; Chunyun LIU ; Li LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(7):1638-1647
ObjectiveTo construct and validate a predictive model for hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) by combining key indicators such as cytokines and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and to provide evidence-based support for the early identification of high-risk populations and the optimization of intervention strategies in clinical practice. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 2 167 patients with ESLD who were admitted to The Third People’s Hospital of Kunming from January 2022 to December 2024, the patients were divided into a training set with 1 517 patients and a validation set with 650 patients at a ratio of 7∶3 using the stratified random sampling method. A univariate analysis and a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis were performed for the training set to identify potential influencing variables, and then a binary Logistic regression model was constructed to investigate the independent influencing factors for HE in ESLD patients. A nomogram prediction model was established based on this regression model, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was performed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curve were used to comprehensively evaluate the degree of fit, accuracy, consistency, and clinical practicability of the predictive model derived from the training set. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed quantitative data between two groups. The chi-square test or Fisher exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. ResultsThe univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences between the study group and the control group in age, sex, blood ammonia, lymphocytes, hemoglobin, platelet count, prothrombin time, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, total protein, albumin, prealbumin, alkaline phosphatase, cholinesterase, total bile acid, triglyceride, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, blood glucose, CD3+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, carcinoembryonic antigen, triiodothyronine, thyroxine, free triiodothyronine, free thyroxine, interleukin-1β, interleukin-5, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, interleukin-12p70, interleukin-17, interferon-γ, and MELD score (all P<0.05). The LASSO regression analysis identified nine variables of age, blood ammonia, albumin, prealbumin, cholinesterase, total cholesterol, thyroxine, interleukin-17, and MELD score, and the binary Logistic regression analysis showed that blood ammonia, interleukin-17, and MELD score were independent risk factors for HE in ESLD patients, while age and thyroxine were independent protective factors (all P<0.05). A nomogram model was constructed based on these five variables. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test in the training set showed a good degree of fit (P=0.207), with a McFadden’s pseudo-R2 of 0.184, suggesting that the model had acceptable explanatory power; the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test in the internal validation set further confirmed the calibration stability of the model (P=0.067), suggesting that the model had a good degree of fit in independent data. The model had an area under the ROC curve of 0.784 in the validation set, with a sensitivity of 0.710 and a specificity of 0.752. The mean absolute error of the calibration curve was 0.067, and decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve showed that the nomogram model had positive net benefit and good clinical practicability. ConclusionThe nomogram model constructed based on age, blood ammonia, thyroxine, interleukin-17, and MELD score for predicting HE in patients with ESLD has a good degree of fit, high accuracy and consistency, and excellent clinical practicability.
3.Risk factors for concurrent myocardial injury before intervention in patients with primary hepatic carcinoma and construction of a nomogram prediction model
Lingfen DENG ; Jinyu XIANG ; Lixian CHANG ; Yingling WANG ; Wenjing JI ; Chunyun LIU ; Li LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(9):2143-2153
ObjectiveTo investigate the independent risk factors for concurrent myocardial injury before intervention in patients with primary hepatic carcinoma (PHC), to construct and validate a nomogram prediction model for the early identification of such patients, and to provide a basis for early clinical prevention and management. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 1 822 patients with PHC in two medical institutions from January 2019 to June 2025, among whom the 1 518 patients from The Third People’s Hospital of Kunming were used as the training set to construct the nomogram prediction model, and the 304 patients from The Second People’s Hospital of Baoshan were used as the validation set. According to the result of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T measurement before intervention, the patients with PHC were divided into myocardial injury group and non-myocardial injury group. The univariate analysis, the LASSO regression analysis, and the multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to identify the risk factors of concurrent myocardial injury in PHC patients before intervention, and then a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on these findings. The independent data of the 304 patients in the validation set were used for external validation, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curve were used to assess model performance. ResultsIn the training set, there were 346 patients in the myocardial injury group and 1 172 patients in the non-myocardial injury group, and the prevalence rate of concurrent myocardial injury was 22.79%. The mean age was 56.44±9.45 years, and the male patients accounted for 81.49%. The patients with drinking, smoking, chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, hypertension, diabetes, Child-Pugh class A liver disease, BCLC stage B liver disease, or abnormal electrocardiographic findings accounted for 49.34%, 57.44%, 61.73%, 32.48%, 22.66%, 17.19%, 50.53%, 33.86%, and 62.12%, respectively. The univariate analysis, the LASSO regression analysis, and the multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR]=1.051, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.036 — 1.067, P<0.001), history of diabetes (OR=1.862, 95%CI: 1.346 — 2.574, P<0.001), electrocardiographic findings (OR=1.446, 95%CI: 1.077 — 1.940, P=0.014), hemoglobin (HGB) (OR=0.993, 95%CI: 0.988 — 0.998, P=0.003), albumin (Alb) (OR=0.951, 95%CI: 0.930 — 0.972, P<0.001), and creatinine (Cr) (OR=1.021, 95%CI: 1.016 — 1.026, P<0.001) were independent influencing factors for myocardial injury in PHC patients. A regression equation was established as Logit(Y)=-3.406+0.050×age+0.621×history of diabetes+0.369×electrocardiogram-0.007×HGB-0.051×Alb+0.021×Cr, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on these factors. The Bootstrap internal validation of the model yielded an AUC of 0.743 (95%CI: 0.707 — 0.778), and the model had an AUC of 0.766 (95%CI: 0.738 — 0.794) in the training set and 0.730 (95%CI: 0.688 — 0.793) in the validation set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a P value of 0.716 for the training set and 0.408 for the validation set, suggesting that the model had a good degree of fitting. Calibration curves, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves in both the training set and the validation set showed that the model had a good clinical application value. ConclusionAge, history of diabetes, electrocardiographic findings, HGB, Alb, and Cr are independent influencing factors for myocardial injury in patients with PHC, and the nomogram prediction model constructed based on these factors has good discriminatory ability, accuracy, and clinical practicability.
4.Risk factors for concurrent hepatic hydrothorax before intervention in primary liver cancer and construction of a nomogram prediction model
Yuanzhen WANG ; Renhai TIAN ; Yingyuan ZHANG ; Danqing XU ; Lixian CHANG ; Chunyun LIU ; Li LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(1):75-83
ObjectiveTo investigate the influencing factors for hepatic hydrothorax (HH) before intervention for primary hepatic carcinoma (PHC), and to construct and assess the nomogram risk prediction model. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 353 hospitalized patients who attended the Third People’s Hospital of Kunming for the first time from October 2012 to October 2021 and there diagnosed with PHC, and according to the presence or absence of HH, they were divided into HH group with 153 patients and non-HH group with 200 patients. General data and the data of initial clinical testing after admission were collected from all PHC patients. The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. After the multicollinearity test was performed for the variables with statistical significance determined by the univariate analysis, the multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent influencing factors. The “rms” software package was used to construct a nomogram risk prediction model, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the risk prediction model; the “Calibration Curves” software package was used to plot the calibration curve, and the “rmda” software package was used to plot the clinical decision curve and the clinical impact curve. ResultsAmong the 353 patients with PHC, there were 153 patients with HH, with a prevalence rate of 43.34%. Child-Pugh class B (odds ratio [OR]=2.652, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.050 — 6.698, P=0.039), Child-Pugh class C (OR=7.963, 95%CI: 1.046 — 60.632, P=0.045), total protein (OR=0.947, 95%CI: 0.914 — 0.981, P=0.003), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (OR=1.007, 95%CI: 1.001 — 1.014, P=0.025), and interleukin-2 (OR=0.801, 95%CI: 0.653 — 0.981, P=0.032) were independent influencing factors for HH before PHC intervention, and a nomogram risk prediction model was established based on these factors. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had a good degree of fitting (χ2=5.006, P=0.757), with an area under the ROC curve of 0.752 (95%CI: 0.701 — 0.803), a sensitivity of 78.40%, and a specificity of 63.50%. The calibration curve showed that the model had good consistency in predicting HH before PHC intervention, and the clinical decision curve and the clinical impact curve showed that the model had good clinical practicability within a certain threshold range. ConclusionChild-Pugh class, total protein, interleukin-2, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein are independent influencing factors for developing HH before PHC intervention, and the nomogram model established based on these factors can effectively predict the risk of developing HH.
5.Tubeimoside I promoted Snail ubiquitination degradation and inhibited the malignant progression of PANC-1 pancreatic cancer cells
Lixue FENG ; Chunyun ZHANG ; Zeyan LI ; Huiqi YIN ; Yingning SUN ; Dian-hui LIU ; Baogang YU ; He LIU ; Qingzhu YANG
Chinese Journal of Pathophysiology 2025;41(10):1955-1962
AIM:This study aims to investigate the molecular mechanism by which tubeimoside I(TBMS1)inhibits Snail expression in pancreatic cancer cells(PANC-1).METHODS:Human pancreatic cancer PANC-1 cells were cultured in vitro.The inhibitory effect of TBMS1 on PANC-1 cells was assessed using the MTT assay,and the data were analyzed based on the IC50 value of TBMS1.The impact of TBMS1 on the clonal formation ability of PANC-1 cells was evaluated through colony formation assays.The Transwell assay was employed to assess the effect of TBMS1 on the migrato-ry capability of PANC-1 cells.Apoptosis and cell cycle alterations in PANC-1 cells were analyzed using acridine orange staining and flow cytometry.The expression of Snail protein in pancreatic cancer and its relationship with survival of the patients were analyzed using the GEPIA database and Kaplan-Meier Plotter data.Immunofluorescence staining was con-ducted to investigate the effect of TBMS1 on Snail expression,while Western blot was used to evaluate the expression of poly(ADP-ribose)polymerase(PARP),E-cadherin and Snail in the cells.The ubiquitination of Snail protein was mea-sured using immunoprecipitation techniques.RESULTS:As the concentration of TBMS1 increased,the survival rate and number of clones formed by PANC-1 cells progressively decreased,leading to apoptosis,cleavage of PARP,and cell cycle arrest in the G1 phase.There was also a reduction in the proportion of cells in the S phase and a decrease in cell migration ability.The expression of Snail protein,a critical factor in cell migration,was inhibited,while E-cadherin protein levels were increased.Treatment with the proteasome inhibitor MG132 was able to reverse the suppression of Snail protein ex-pression caused by TBMS1.Immunoprecipitation results indicated that TBMS1 enhances the ubiquitination and subse-quent degradation of Snail protein.CONCLUSION:TBMS1 effectively inhibits the malignant progression of pancreatic cancer cells by promoting the ubiquitination and degradation of Snail protein in PANC-1 cells.
6.Establishment and evaluation of a Nomogram early prediction model for severe dengue fever
Li LIU ; Hongjun LI ; Lixian CHANG ; Hui CHEN ; Zhihui MA ; Zhijian DONG ; Lingjun SHEN ; Chunyun LIU
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(3):179-185
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of severe dengue fever patients in the early stage, construct a early prediction model for severe dengue fever, and evaluate it.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted to collect early clinical data of dengue fever patients admitted to the People's Hospital of Mengla County and the Third People's Hospital of Kunming in Yunnan Province from July to December 2023. The multifactor logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting the severe dengue fever patients, and Nomogram prediction model was used for visualization. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve analysis were used to evaluate the model.Results:A total of 534 dengue fever patients were included, including 291 males and 243 females, aged (39.95 ± 15.69) years. Among them, there were 59 cases (11.05%) of severe dengue fever. The results of multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that age ( OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.08, P < 0.001), cardiovascular disease ( OR = 5.28, 95% CI: 2.08 - 13.40, P < 0.001), serous effusion ( OR = 4.34, 95% CI: 1.63 - 11.57, P = 0.003), aspartate aminotransferase ( OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.04, P < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase ( OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.01, P = 0.001), and fibrinogen ( OR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28 - 0.76, P = 0.003) were independent influencing factors in the early stage of severe dengue fever. The area under the ROC curve of the Nomogram prediction model constructed from the above six variables was 0.96 (0.93 - 0.98). The calibration curve analysis results showed that the mean absolute error between the predicted values of the Nomogram prediction model and the actual observed values was 0.014. Conclusions:Age, cardiovascular disease, serous effusion, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, and fibrinogen are independent influencing factors in the early stage of severe dengue fever. The Nomogram prediction model established based on these variables has good predictive ability for severe dengue fever.
7.Value of FibroScan, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio, S index, interleukin-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α in the diagnosis of HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B liver fibrosis
Yingyuan ZHANG ; Danqing XU ; Huan MU ; Chunyan MOU ; Lixian CHANG ; Yuanzhen WANG ; Hongyan WEI ; Li LIU ; Weikun LI ; Chunyun LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(4):670-676
ObjectiveTo investigate the value of noninvasive imaging detection (FibroScan), two serological models of gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) score and S index, and two inflammatory factors of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) in predicting liver fibrosis in patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB), as well as the consistency of liver biopsy in pathological staging, and to provide early warning for early intervention of CHB. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 131 HBeAg-positive CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy in The Third People’s Hospital of Kunming from January 2019 to December 2023. The results of liver biopsy were collected from all patients, and related examinations were performed before liver biopsy, including total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, IL-6, TNF-α, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and abdominal ultrasound. An analysis of variance was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between groups, and the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. A Kappa analysis was used to investigate the consistency between LSM noninvasive histological staging and pathological staging based on liver biopsy, and the Spearman analysis was used to investigate the correlation between each variable and FibroScan in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis stage. The Logistic regression analysis was used to construct joint predictive factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of each indicator alone and the joint predictive model in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis, and the Delong test was used for comparison of the area under the ROC curve (AUC). ResultsIn the consistency check, inflammation degree based on liver biopsy had a Kappa value of 0.807 (P<0.001), and liver fibrosis degree based on liver biopsy had a Kappa value of 0.827 (P<0.001), suggesting that FibroScan noninvasive histological staging and liver biopsy showed good consistency in assessing inflammation degree and liver fibrosis stage. Age was positively correlated with LSM, GPR score, S index, IL-6, and TNF-α (all P<0.05), and GPR score, S index, IL-6, and TNF-α were positively correlated with LSM (all P<0.05). GPR score, S index, IL-6, and TNF-α were all independent risk factors for diagnosing significant liver fibrosis (≥S2) and progressive liver fibrosis (≥S3) (all P<0.05). As for each indicator alone, GPR score had the highest value in the diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis (≥S2), followed by S index, IL-6, and TNF-α, while S index had the highest value in the diagnosis of progressive liver fibrosis (≥S3), followed by GPR score, TNF-α, and IL-6. The joint model had a higher predictive value than each indicator alone (all P<0.05). ConclusionThere is a good consistency between FibroScan noninvasive histological staging and pathological staging based on liver biopsy. GPR score, S index, IL-6, and TNF-α are independent risk factors for evaluating different degree of liver fibrosis in CHB, and the combined prediction model established by them can better diagnose liver fibrosis.
8.Establishment and evaluation of a Nomogram early prediction model for severe dengue fever
Li LIU ; Hongjun LI ; Lixian CHANG ; Hui CHEN ; Zhihui MA ; Zhijian DONG ; Lingjun SHEN ; Chunyun LIU
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(3):179-185
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of severe dengue fever patients in the early stage, construct a early prediction model for severe dengue fever, and evaluate it.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted to collect early clinical data of dengue fever patients admitted to the People's Hospital of Mengla County and the Third People's Hospital of Kunming in Yunnan Province from July to December 2023. The multifactor logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting the severe dengue fever patients, and Nomogram prediction model was used for visualization. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve analysis were used to evaluate the model.Results:A total of 534 dengue fever patients were included, including 291 males and 243 females, aged (39.95 ± 15.69) years. Among them, there were 59 cases (11.05%) of severe dengue fever. The results of multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that age ( OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.08, P < 0.001), cardiovascular disease ( OR = 5.28, 95% CI: 2.08 - 13.40, P < 0.001), serous effusion ( OR = 4.34, 95% CI: 1.63 - 11.57, P = 0.003), aspartate aminotransferase ( OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.04, P < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase ( OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.01, P = 0.001), and fibrinogen ( OR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28 - 0.76, P = 0.003) were independent influencing factors in the early stage of severe dengue fever. The area under the ROC curve of the Nomogram prediction model constructed from the above six variables was 0.96 (0.93 - 0.98). The calibration curve analysis results showed that the mean absolute error between the predicted values of the Nomogram prediction model and the actual observed values was 0.014. Conclusions:Age, cardiovascular disease, serous effusion, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, and fibrinogen are independent influencing factors in the early stage of severe dengue fever. The Nomogram prediction model established based on these variables has good predictive ability for severe dengue fever.
9.Distribution and drug resistance of pathogens isolated from different age groups of children with urinary tract infections in a health care hospital of Guangxi Province
Minxue LIU ; Liying HUANG ; Jiahui LIANG ; Huan ZHANG ; Chunyun FU
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(12):1846-1851
OBJECTIVE To analyze the situation of urinary tract infections(UTIs)in children of different age groups in a health care hospital of Guangxi,and to analyze the detected pathogens and drug resistance rate.METHOD Data on urinary tract infections in children between 2017 and 2023 in Guangxi provincial maternal and child healthcare hospitals were retrospectively analyzed,and children were classified according to age:neonates(≤28 days),infants(>28 days and ≤1 year),preschoolers(>1 year and<6 year)and 6-14 years old.The urina-ry tract infections,pathogen identification and drug resistance rates of major pathogens in children of different age groups were analyzed.RESULTS The pathogens of pediatric UTIs in each group were dominated by gram-negative bacilli(44.16%-67.36%),with the highest percentage of Escherichia coli(21.81%—38.60%),gram-posi-tive infections were dominated by Enterococcus faecium(5.96%—21.40%)and Enterococcus faecalis(4.66%—13.68%),and fungi were dominated by Candida albicans(8.03%-12.75%).Admission to intensive care unit was higher in the neonates group(37.38%,P<0.001).Urine culture positivity rate was elevated in the 6-14 years age group(31.93%,P<0.001),with girls being more common(59.47%,P<0.001).The rate of E.coli resistance to cephalosporins was relative high in urine culture isolates from the infant group(28%—54%).In ad-dition,the resistance rate of Enterococcus faecium from urine to ampicillin was higher in the infant group than that in the preschool children and 6-14 years old groups(P=0.002).CONCLUSIONS The gram-negative bacteri-a were dominant among the pathogens isolated from the children with urinary tract infections and showed certain drug resistance to the commonly used antibiotics.Urinary tract infections are more difficult to diagnose and treat in younger children,and pediatricians should pay more attention to them.
10.Value of albumin-bilirubin, easy albumin-bilirubin, and platelet-albumin-bilirubin scores in predicting the prognosis of patients with HCV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma
Huan MU ; Yingyuan ZHANG ; Danqing XU ; Yuanqiang HE ; Chunyan MOU ; Chunyun LIU ; Li LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(5):921-926
ObjectiveTo investigate the value of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), easy albumin-bilirubin (EZ-ALBI), and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) scores in predicting 2-year survival in patients with HCV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCV-HCC). MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 174 patients with HCV-HCC who were admitted to The Third People’s Hospital of Kunming from January 2020 to January 2022, and the patients were followed up till 2 years after admission. According to the follow-up results, the patients were divided into survival group with 95 patients and death group with 79 patients. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model analyses were used to investigate the influencing factors for the survival of HCV-HCC patients. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves and analyze the 2-year survival rate of HCV-HCC patients with different EZ-ALBI grades, and the log-rank test was used for comparison between groups. ResultsThere were significant differences between the survival group and the death group in platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin, albumin (Alb), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), prealbumin, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, PALBI score, ALBI score, EZ-ALBI score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, HCV genotype, peritoneal effusion, and vascular invasion (all P<0.05). The univariate Cox regression analysis showed that AST, Alb, AFP, ALBI score, EZ-ALBI score, PALBI score, MELD score, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Staging, and peritoneal effusion were influencing factors for the survival of patients (all P<0.05), and the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that EZ-ALBI score (hazard ratio [HR]=1.850, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.054 — 3.247, P=0.032) and peritoneal effusion (HR=1.993, 95%CI: 1.030 — 3.858, P=0.041) were independent risk factors for the survival of HCV-HCC patients. The survival curve analysis showed that the patients with EZ-ALBI grade 1/2/3 had a 2-year survival rate of 90.9%, 60.2%, and 32.2%, respectively, and there was a significant difference in cumulative survival rate between the patients with different EZ-ALBI grades (χ2=26.294, P<0.001). ConclusionEZ-ALBI score and the presence or absence of peritoneal effusion can be used as predictors of the survival of HCV-HCC patients.

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