1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Comparison of small-sample multi-class machine learning models for plasma concentration prediction of valproic acid
Xi CHEN ; Shen’ao YUAN ; Hailing YUAN ; Jie ZHAO ; Peng CHEN ; Chunyan TIAN ; Yi SU ; Yunsong ZHANG ; Yu ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(11):1399-1404
OBJECTIVE To construct three-class (insufficient, normal, excessive) and two-class (insufficient, normal) models for predicting plasma concentration of valproic acid (VPA), and compare the performance of these two models, with the aim of providing a reference for formulating clinical medication strategies. METHODS The clinical data of 480 patients who received VPA treatment and underwent blood concentration test at the Xi’an International Medical Center Hospital were collected from November 2022 to September 2024 (a total of 695 sets of data). In this study, predictive models were constructed for target variables of three-class and two-class models. Feature ranking and selection were carried out using XGBoost scores. Twelve different machine learning algorithms were used for training and validation, and the performance of the models was evaluated using three indexes: accuracy, F1 score, and the area under the working characteristic curve of the subject (AUC). RESULTS XGBoost feature importance scores revealed that in the three-class model, the importance ranking of kidney disease and electrolyte disorders was higher. However, in the two-class model, the importance ranking of these features significantly decreased, suggesting a close association with the excessive blood concentration of VPA. In the three-class model, Random Forest method performed best, with F1 score of 0.704 0 and AUC of 0.519 3 on the test set; while in the two-class model, CatBoost method performed optimally, with F1 score of 0.785 7 and AUC of 0.819 5 on the test set. CONCLUSIONS The constructed three-class model has the ability to predict excessive VPA blood concentration, but its prediction and model generalization abilities are poor; the constructed two-class model can only perform classification prediction for insufficient and normal blood concentration cases, but its model performance is stronger.
3.Drug resistance in 38 cases of carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens infection in a grade Ⅲ level A general hospital in Shanghai
Yuan LI ; Liang TIAN ; Chunyan LI ; Yun LIU ; Wei JI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(6):484-489
ObjectiveTo understand the infection characteristics and drug resistance of carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens (CRSM) in a general hospital in Shanghai, and to provide a theoretical basis for clinical anti-infective treatment and prevention of drug-resistant bacteria. MethodsClinical data on cases with CRSM infections detected in clinical specimens at a gradeⅢ level A general hospital in Shanghai from June 2022 to June 2024 were retrospectively collected, and their clinical distributions, factors of hospital-acquired infections, prognosis, and drug-resistant situation were analyzed simultaneously. ResultsA total of 38 cases with CRSM were detected from June 2022 to June 2024, and the number of CRSM strains accounted for 25.00% (38/152) of the number of SM strains. The 38 CRSM infection samples were all derived from sputum. CRSM were distributed in 9 clinical departments, and the top 3 departments having the highest percentages of CRSM among SM strains, were intensive care unit (ICU) (78.79%, 26/33), gastrointestinal surgery department (57.14%, 4/7), and thyroid hernia surgery department (50.00%, 1/2). Among the 38 patients with CRSM infections, 8 cases were identified as hospital-acquired infection, resulting in a hospital-acquired infection rate of 21.05. The mortality rate of the 38 cases of CRSM infected patients within 30 days after detection of CRSM was 23.68% (9/38). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score
4.The levels and clinical significance of serum miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection pneumonia
Chunyan QU ; Fan ZHANG ; Xiaohua YUAN ; Lihong CAI ; Bin LI ; Xiaohua ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1733-1738
To investigate the levels and clinical significance of serum microRNA ( miR) -146a, miR-145, T-helpertype17 (Th17)/regulatory T cell (Treg) in children with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infectious pneumonia. The clinical data of 200 children with RSV infectious pneumonia admitted to Nantong Maternal and Child Health Hospital from June 2020 to June 2023 were retrospectively collected as the study group. At the same time, 200 children with mycoplasma pneumonia were selected as the common pneumonia group and 200 healthy children were selected as the healthy group. The levels of serum inflammatory factors [interleukin-6 (IL-6), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)] were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The expression levels of serum miR-146a and miR-145 were detected by RT-qPCR. The levels of Th17/Treg were detected by flow cytometry. The levels of miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg and serum inflammatory factors were compared among the three groups. Pearson method was used to analyze the correlation between miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg and serum inflammatory factors in children with RSV infectious pneumonia. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the diagnostic value of miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection pneumonia. The results showed that in the study group, miR-146a (2.01±0.58), miR-145 (1.81±0.46), Th17/Treg (1.09±0.31), IL-6 (7.82±2.11) ng/L and TNF-α (9.82±2.96) ng/L were higher than those in the common pneumonia group miR-146a (1.49±0.42), miR-145 (1.43±0.31), Th17/Treg (0.77±0.24), IL-6 (5.89±1.32) ng/L, TNF-α (7.34±2.32) ng/L and healthy group miR-146a (1.25±0.19), miR-145 (1.19±0.16), Th17/Treg (0.38±0.09), IL-6 (4.52±1.04) ng/L, TNF-α (5.39±1.07)ng/L. The levels of the above indexes in the common pneumonia group were higher than those in the healthy group, and the differences were statistically significant ( F=183.543, 175.938, 617.182, 226.657, 193.459, P<0.05). In the study group, IFN-γ (14.18±3.25) pg/ml was lower than that in the control group (19.52±5.13) pg/ml, but higher than that in the healthy group (9.77±2.40) pg/ml, and the difference was statistically significant ( F=335.432, P<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis showed that miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg were positively correlated with IL-6 and TNF-α ( P<0.05), but negatively correlated with IFN-γ ( P<0.05). ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg in the diagnosis of RSV infectious pneumonia was 0.767, 0.762 and 0.790, respectively, while the combined detection of the three was 0.904. In conclusion, the levels of miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg are highly expressed in children with RSV infectious pneumonia, and are closely related to the inflammatory response of children. The combined detection of the three may have certain application value in the auxiliary diagnosis of RSV infectious pneumonia.
5.Reference values of carotid intima-media thickness and arterial stiffness in Chinese adults based on ultrasound radio frequency signal: A nationwide, multicenter study
Changyang XING ; Xiujing XIE ; Yu WU ; Lei XU ; Xiangping GUAN ; Fan LI ; Xiaojun ZHAN ; Hengli YANG ; Jinsong LI ; Qi ZHOU ; Yuming MU ; Qing ZHOU ; Yunchuan DING ; Yingli WANG ; Xiangzhu WANG ; Yu ZHENG ; Xiaofeng SUN ; Hua LI ; Chaoxue ZHANG ; Cheng ZHAO ; Shaodong QIU ; Guozhen YAN ; Hong YANG ; Yinjuan MAO ; Weiwei ZHAN ; Chunyan MA ; Ying GU ; Wu CHEN ; Mingxing XIE ; Tianan JIANG ; Lijun YUAN
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(15):1802-1810
Background::Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and diameter, stiffness, and wave reflections, are independent and important clinical biomarkers and risk predictors for cardiovascular diseases. The purpose of the present study was to establish nationwide reference values of carotid properties for healthy Chinese adults and to explore potential clinical determinants.Methods::A total of 3053 healthy Han Chinese adults (1922 women) aged 18-79 years were enrolled at 28 collaborating tertiary centers throughout China between April 2021 and July 2022. The real-time tracking of common carotid artery walls was achieved by the radio frequency (RF) ultrasound system. The IMT, diameter, compliance coefficient, β stiffness, local pulse wave velocity (PWV), local systolic blood pressure, augmented pressure (AP), and augmentation index (AIx) were then automatically measured and reported. Data were stratified by age groups and sex. The relationships between age and carotid property parameters were analyzed by Jonckheere-Terpstra test and simple linear regressions. The major clinical determinants of carotid properties were identified by Pearson’s correlation, multiple linear regression, and analyses of covariance.Results::All the parameters of carotid properties demonstrated significantly age-related trajectories. Women showed thinner IMT, smaller carotid diameter, larger AP, and AIx than men. The β stiffness and PWV were significantly higher in men than women before forties, but the differences reversed after that. The increase rate of carotid IMT (5.5 μm/year in women and 5.8 μm/year in men) and diameter (0.03 mm/year in both men and women) were similar between men and women. For the stiffness and wave reflections, women showed significantly larger age-related variations than men as demonstrated by steeper regression slopes (all P for age by sex interaction <0.05). The blood pressures, body mass index (BMI), and triglyceride levels were identified as major clinical determinants of carotid properties with adjustment of age and sex. Conclusions::The age- and sex-specific reference values of carotid properties measured by RF ultrasound for healthy Chinese adults were established. The blood pressures, BMI, and triglyceride levels should be considered for clinical application of corresponding reference values.
6.The levels and clinical significance of serum miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection pneumonia
Chunyan QU ; Fan ZHANG ; Xiaohua YUAN ; Lihong CAI ; Bin LI ; Xiaohua ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1733-1738
To investigate the levels and clinical significance of serum microRNA ( miR) -146a, miR-145, T-helpertype17 (Th17)/regulatory T cell (Treg) in children with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infectious pneumonia. The clinical data of 200 children with RSV infectious pneumonia admitted to Nantong Maternal and Child Health Hospital from June 2020 to June 2023 were retrospectively collected as the study group. At the same time, 200 children with mycoplasma pneumonia were selected as the common pneumonia group and 200 healthy children were selected as the healthy group. The levels of serum inflammatory factors [interleukin-6 (IL-6), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)] were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The expression levels of serum miR-146a and miR-145 were detected by RT-qPCR. The levels of Th17/Treg were detected by flow cytometry. The levels of miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg and serum inflammatory factors were compared among the three groups. Pearson method was used to analyze the correlation between miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg and serum inflammatory factors in children with RSV infectious pneumonia. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the diagnostic value of miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection pneumonia. The results showed that in the study group, miR-146a (2.01±0.58), miR-145 (1.81±0.46), Th17/Treg (1.09±0.31), IL-6 (7.82±2.11) ng/L and TNF-α (9.82±2.96) ng/L were higher than those in the common pneumonia group miR-146a (1.49±0.42), miR-145 (1.43±0.31), Th17/Treg (0.77±0.24), IL-6 (5.89±1.32) ng/L, TNF-α (7.34±2.32) ng/L and healthy group miR-146a (1.25±0.19), miR-145 (1.19±0.16), Th17/Treg (0.38±0.09), IL-6 (4.52±1.04) ng/L, TNF-α (5.39±1.07)ng/L. The levels of the above indexes in the common pneumonia group were higher than those in the healthy group, and the differences were statistically significant ( F=183.543, 175.938, 617.182, 226.657, 193.459, P<0.05). In the study group, IFN-γ (14.18±3.25) pg/ml was lower than that in the control group (19.52±5.13) pg/ml, but higher than that in the healthy group (9.77±2.40) pg/ml, and the difference was statistically significant ( F=335.432, P<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis showed that miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg were positively correlated with IL-6 and TNF-α ( P<0.05), but negatively correlated with IFN-γ ( P<0.05). ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg in the diagnosis of RSV infectious pneumonia was 0.767, 0.762 and 0.790, respectively, while the combined detection of the three was 0.904. In conclusion, the levels of miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg are highly expressed in children with RSV infectious pneumonia, and are closely related to the inflammatory response of children. The combined detection of the three may have certain application value in the auxiliary diagnosis of RSV infectious pneumonia.
7.Carrier screening for 223 monogenic diseases in Chinese population:a multi-center study in 33 104 individuals
Wei HOU ; Xiaolin FU ; Xiaoxiao XIE ; Chunyan ZHANG ; Jiaxin BIAN ; Xiao MAO ; Juan WEN ; Chunyu LUO ; Hua JIN ; Qian ZHU ; Qingwei QI ; Yeqing QIAN ; Jing YUAN ; Yanyan ZHAO ; Ailan YIN ; Shutie LI ; Yulin JIANG ; Manli ZHANG ; Rui XIAO ; Yanping LU
Journal of Southern Medical University 2024;44(6):1015-1023
Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and mutation spectrum of monogenic diseases in Chinese population through a large-scale,multicenter carrier screening.Methods This study was conducted among a total of 33 104 participants(16 610 females)from 12 clinical centers across China.Carrier status for 223 genes was analyzed using high-throughput sequencing and different PCR methods.Results The overall combined carrier frequency was 55.58%for 197 autosomal genes and 1.84%for 26 X-linked genes in these participants.Among the 16 669 families,874 at-risk couples(5.24%)were identified.Specifically,584 couples(3.50%)were at risk for autosomal genes,306(1.84%)for X-linked genes,and 16 for both autosomal and X-linked genes.The most frequently detected autosomal at-risk genes included GJB2(autosomal recessive deafness type 1A,393 couples),HBA1/HBA2(α-thalassemia,36 couples),PAH(phenylketonuria,14 couples),and SMN1(spinal muscular atrophy,14 couples).The most frequently detected X-linked at-risk genes were G6PD(G6PD deficiency,236 couples),DMD(Duchenne muscular dystrophy,23 couples),and FMR1(fragile X syndrome,17 couples).After excluding GJB2 c.109G>A,the detection rate of at-risk couples was 3.91%(651/16 669),which was lowered to 1.72%(287/16 669)after further excluding G6PD.The theoretical incidence rate of severe monogenic birth defects was approximately 4.35‰(72.5/16 669).Screening for a battery of the top 22 most frequent genes in the at-risk couples could detect over 95%of at-risk couples,while screening for the top 54 genes further increased the detection rate to over 99%.Conclusion This study reveals the carrier frequencies of 223 monogenic genetic disorders in the Chinese population and provides evidence for carrier screening strategy development and panel design tailored to the Chinese population.In carrier testing,genetic counseling for specific genes or gene variants can be challenging,and the couples need to be informed of these difficulties before testing and provided with options for not screening these genes or gene variants.
8.Carrier screening for 223 monogenic diseases in Chinese population:a multi-center study in 33 104 individuals
Wei HOU ; Xiaolin FU ; Xiaoxiao XIE ; Chunyan ZHANG ; Jiaxin BIAN ; Xiao MAO ; Juan WEN ; Chunyu LUO ; Hua JIN ; Qian ZHU ; Qingwei QI ; Yeqing QIAN ; Jing YUAN ; Yanyan ZHAO ; Ailan YIN ; Shutie LI ; Yulin JIANG ; Manli ZHANG ; Rui XIAO ; Yanping LU
Journal of Southern Medical University 2024;44(6):1015-1023
Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and mutation spectrum of monogenic diseases in Chinese population through a large-scale,multicenter carrier screening.Methods This study was conducted among a total of 33 104 participants(16 610 females)from 12 clinical centers across China.Carrier status for 223 genes was analyzed using high-throughput sequencing and different PCR methods.Results The overall combined carrier frequency was 55.58%for 197 autosomal genes and 1.84%for 26 X-linked genes in these participants.Among the 16 669 families,874 at-risk couples(5.24%)were identified.Specifically,584 couples(3.50%)were at risk for autosomal genes,306(1.84%)for X-linked genes,and 16 for both autosomal and X-linked genes.The most frequently detected autosomal at-risk genes included GJB2(autosomal recessive deafness type 1A,393 couples),HBA1/HBA2(α-thalassemia,36 couples),PAH(phenylketonuria,14 couples),and SMN1(spinal muscular atrophy,14 couples).The most frequently detected X-linked at-risk genes were G6PD(G6PD deficiency,236 couples),DMD(Duchenne muscular dystrophy,23 couples),and FMR1(fragile X syndrome,17 couples).After excluding GJB2 c.109G>A,the detection rate of at-risk couples was 3.91%(651/16 669),which was lowered to 1.72%(287/16 669)after further excluding G6PD.The theoretical incidence rate of severe monogenic birth defects was approximately 4.35‰(72.5/16 669).Screening for a battery of the top 22 most frequent genes in the at-risk couples could detect over 95%of at-risk couples,while screening for the top 54 genes further increased the detection rate to over 99%.Conclusion This study reveals the carrier frequencies of 223 monogenic genetic disorders in the Chinese population and provides evidence for carrier screening strategy development and panel design tailored to the Chinese population.In carrier testing,genetic counseling for specific genes or gene variants can be challenging,and the couples need to be informed of these difficulties before testing and provided with options for not screening these genes or gene variants.
9.Investigation on pharmacognosic identification of two Yi Medicine in Yunnan province
LIN Chunyan ; FU Xingqing ; REN Jie ; DONG Yuan ; ZHANG Wenjie
Drug Standards of China 2024;25(1):010-017
Objective: To understand their appearance and microscopic characteristics, as well as their differences by studying the pharmacognosy of Yi medicine Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri, in order to provide a basis for identification and improvement of quality standards.
Methods: Stereo microscopy and optical microscopy and the macroscopic and microscopic identification methods were adopted to compare identification and digital representation for Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri from overall character, local characteristics, the microscopic identification characteristics, the transverse section and the powder.
Results:There were significant differences in the the macroscopic and the microscopic identification characteristics of Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri.
Conclusion: This study summarized the exclusive and practical features in pharmacognosic identification of Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri, it provides a useful reference for supervision the clinical medication,inspection,and standard drafting.
10.Association between dietary habits and sleep duration among middle school students in Shanghai
YIN Xiaoya, ZHAI Yani, YUAN Linlin, YAN Qiong, ZHOU Xinyi, LUO Chunyan, SUN Lijing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(8):1140-1143
Objective:
To explore the association between dietary behaviors and sleep duration among middle school students in Shanghai, so as to provide reference for interventions targeting insufficient sleep.
Methods:
From May to June 2021, a stratified cluster random sampling method was employed to select a sample of 10-17yearold middle school students for monitoring their healthrisk behaviors. A total of 5 538 valid questionnaires were collected. The survey included items such as daily sleep duration, weekly consumption of sugary beverages, freshly squeezed fruit juice, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, fried foods, milk and yogurt, breakfast habits, and frequency of eating outside. Statistical analysis was conducted using Chisquare test, Wilcoxon ranksum test, and multivariable Logistic regression model.
Results:
About 73.7% of middle school students reported insufficient sleep in Shanghai. There was a positive correlation between the average daily consumption of fresh fruits and breakfast consumption with sleep duration. In other words, a higher frequency of consuming fresh fruits (OR=1.29) and eating breakfast (OR=1.07) were associated with a higher likelihood of sufficient sleep. Conversely, there was a negative correlation between the frequency of consuming desserts (OR=0.78) and fried foods (OR=0.88) and sleep duration (P<0.05).
Conclusions
Increasing the consumption of fresh fruits and maintaining regular breakfast habits while reducing the intake of fried foods can contribute to achieving sufficient sleep among middle school students. When implementing interventions to improve sleep among middle school students, promoting healthy and balanced diets can be considered as one of the intervention strategies.


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail