1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Comparison of small-sample multi-class machine learning models for plasma concentration prediction of valproic acid
Xi CHEN ; Shen’ao YUAN ; Hailing YUAN ; Jie ZHAO ; Peng CHEN ; Chunyan TIAN ; Yi SU ; Yunsong ZHANG ; Yu ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(11):1399-1404
OBJECTIVE To construct three-class (insufficient, normal, excessive) and two-class (insufficient, normal) models for predicting plasma concentration of valproic acid (VPA), and compare the performance of these two models, with the aim of providing a reference for formulating clinical medication strategies. METHODS The clinical data of 480 patients who received VPA treatment and underwent blood concentration test at the Xi’an International Medical Center Hospital were collected from November 2022 to September 2024 (a total of 695 sets of data). In this study, predictive models were constructed for target variables of three-class and two-class models. Feature ranking and selection were carried out using XGBoost scores. Twelve different machine learning algorithms were used for training and validation, and the performance of the models was evaluated using three indexes: accuracy, F1 score, and the area under the working characteristic curve of the subject (AUC). RESULTS XGBoost feature importance scores revealed that in the three-class model, the importance ranking of kidney disease and electrolyte disorders was higher. However, in the two-class model, the importance ranking of these features significantly decreased, suggesting a close association with the excessive blood concentration of VPA. In the three-class model, Random Forest method performed best, with F1 score of 0.704 0 and AUC of 0.519 3 on the test set; while in the two-class model, CatBoost method performed optimally, with F1 score of 0.785 7 and AUC of 0.819 5 on the test set. CONCLUSIONS The constructed three-class model has the ability to predict excessive VPA blood concentration, but its prediction and model generalization abilities are poor; the constructed two-class model can only perform classification prediction for insufficient and normal blood concentration cases, but its model performance is stronger.
3.Drug resistance in 38 cases of carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens infection in a grade Ⅲ level A general hospital in Shanghai
Yuan LI ; Liang TIAN ; Chunyan LI ; Yun LIU ; Wei JI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(6):484-489
ObjectiveTo understand the infection characteristics and drug resistance of carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens (CRSM) in a general hospital in Shanghai, and to provide a theoretical basis for clinical anti-infective treatment and prevention of drug-resistant bacteria. MethodsClinical data on cases with CRSM infections detected in clinical specimens at a gradeⅢ level A general hospital in Shanghai from June 2022 to June 2024 were retrospectively collected, and their clinical distributions, factors of hospital-acquired infections, prognosis, and drug-resistant situation were analyzed simultaneously. ResultsA total of 38 cases with CRSM were detected from June 2022 to June 2024, and the number of CRSM strains accounted for 25.00% (38/152) of the number of SM strains. The 38 CRSM infection samples were all derived from sputum. CRSM were distributed in 9 clinical departments, and the top 3 departments having the highest percentages of CRSM among SM strains, were intensive care unit (ICU) (78.79%, 26/33), gastrointestinal surgery department (57.14%, 4/7), and thyroid hernia surgery department (50.00%, 1/2). Among the 38 patients with CRSM infections, 8 cases were identified as hospital-acquired infection, resulting in a hospital-acquired infection rate of 21.05. The mortality rate of the 38 cases of CRSM infected patients within 30 days after detection of CRSM was 23.68% (9/38). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score
4.The role of CB2 in accelerating orthodontic tooth movement
Dengying FAN ; Haoyan ZHAI ; Huijuan LIU ; Yuan ZHAO ; Dongna LI ; Xing QIAO ; Wenjing KANG ; Dechao ZHU ; Chunyan LIU
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2024;59(2):212-218
Objective To explore the effect of cannabinoid receptor 2(CB2)on orthodontic tooth movement(OTM)rate and periodontal tissue reconstruction of pressure area in mice.Methods Thirty CB2-/-male mice and thirty littermate control WT male mice were individually accepted the orthodontic appliance at their age of 6 weeks.The mice were respectively scarified at 3 days,7 days,14 days and 21 days after the operation.Then the tooth movement distance was examined through the stereomicroscope.Hematoxylin-eosin staining was performed to explore the biological responses of periodontium at the distal mesial root pressure area.Anti-tartrate acid phospha-tase staining was performed to calculate the number and distribution of osteoclasts at the distal mesial root pressure area,and MMP-9 was evaluated by immunohistochemistry to examine the number of MMP-9(+)monocytes and multinucleated cells in the same district as the TRAP staining.Results Compared with those WT mice at 3,7,14 and 21 days,OTM distance showed a gradual increased tendency according with experimental time over 21 days.The widths of periodontal ligament on the pressure side were markedly greater in CB2-/-mice than WT mice at 7,14 and 21 days(P<0.000 1).The numbers of TRAP positive osteoclasts were significantly greater in CB2-/-mice than those in WT mice at 14 days of OTM(P<0.001).MMP-9 immunohistochemical staining showed that the number of MMP-9(+)monocytes and multinucleated cells was more in CB2-/-mice than that in WT mice at 14 days of OTM(P<0.05).Conclusion The absence of CB2 accelerates orthodontic tooth movement under or-thodontic force.The absence of CB2 reinforces bone resorption in orthodontic tooth movement compressive area dur-ing orthodontic tooth movement.
5.Effect of enriched environment combined with acupuncture at head points on behavior in rats with autism spectrum disorder
Zichen MU ; Qiang TANG ; Yunqiu SHI ; Yan WANG ; Shuwei ZHU ; Ya'nan ZHUANG ; Danshuang XU ; Hongyu LI ; Baolong LI ; Chunyan ZHANG ; Mengke YUAN
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2024;30(2):176-182
ObjectiveTo observe the effect of enriched environment (EE) combined with acupuncture at head point (HA) on behavior in rats with autism spectrum disorder. MethodsHealthy female Wistar rats were given peritoneal injection of sodium valproate at 12.5 days of gestation. Twenty-four male offspring rats were randomly selected and then randomly divided into model group (n = 6), EE group (n = 6), HA group (n = 6) and EE combined with HA group (the combined group, n = 6). Six male offspring rats born from female mice injected with the same amount of saline intraperitoneally were as control group. After four weeks of treatment, all the five groups were tested with three-chamber test and marble burying test, and the sociability index, the social novelty index and the number of buried marbles were recorded. The levels of interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 in peripheral blood were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). ResultsAfter treatment, compared with the model group, the sociability index and the social novelty index improved (P < 0.05), the number of buried marbles reduced (P < 0.05), and the levels of IL-6 and IL-1β in peripheral blood decreased in EE group, HA group and the combined group (P < 0.05); while the combined group was the best (P < 0.01). ConclusionBoth EE or acupuncture at HA could improve behavioral symptoms, and reduce the expression of inflammatory factors in rats with autism spectrum disorder. The combination of the two methods showed the best result.
6.A multicenter population investigation on precancerous lesions of gastric cancer in Lishui District,Nan-jing
Chunyan NIU ; Xiaoping WANG ; Xiangyang ZHAO ; Jiankang HUANG ; Yue CHEN ; Yongqiang SHI ; Yongqiang SONG ; Hui WANG ; Xinguo WU ; Yongdan BU ; Jijin LI ; Tao TAO ; Jinhua WU ; Changlin XUE ; Fuyu ZHANG ; Jinming YANG ; Chunrong HAN ; Juan YUAN ; Yinling WU ; Hongbing XIONG ; Peng XIAO
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2024;40(20):2929-2934
Objective By population survey,to explore the epidemiological characteristics of gastric precancerous lesions in Lishui District of Nanjing and provide objective basis for the prevention and treatment of early gastric cancer.Methods From July 2021 to December 2022,21 977 patients who received endoscopy and/or 13C-UBT in Lishui District People's Hospital and 6 medical community units in Nanjing City were retrospectively analyzed for demography characteristics,detection rate of gastric precancerous lesions,and H.Pylori infection rate.Results(1)590 cases of gastric precancerous lesions were detected(detection rate 2.68%);(2)The total detection rate of precancerous lesions and three pathological types in males were all higher than those in females(all P<0.001);(3)The minimum age for the total detection rate of precancerous lesions in males and the mini-mum age for each pathological type were lower than in females(P<0.001,0.009,0.005,0.002);(4)The popu-lation total H.pylori infection rate was 23.10%,the H.pylori infection rate in patients with precancerous lesions was higher than that in non-precancerous lesions(P<0.001),both H.pylori infection rate of male and female in precancerous lesions were all higher than those of non-precancerous lesions of the same sex(all P<0.001),in addition,the H.pylori infection rate of male whether in precancerous or non-precancerous lesions was higher than that of female(all P<0.001);(5)The precancerous lesions detection rate in male,female,and the overall age range of 20~29 to 70~79 years is positively correlated with age growth(P<0.001),and rapidly decreases after the age of 79,the of H.pylori infection rate was also positively correlated with age growth(P<0.001),and the trend of age change(P<0.001)was parallel to the precancerous lesions detection rate.Conclusions The detec-tion rate of gastric precancerous lesions in this region is above the average level in China;the total H.pylori infec-tion rate is at a relatively low level in China;the H.pylori infection rate is parallel to the age trend of the detection rate of gastric precancerous lesions,and increases with age.
7.Application of monocyte monolayer assay on hemolytic disease of fetus and newborn caused by IgG anti-M
Chunyan MO ; Shuangshuang JIA ; Siying ZHU ; Yanli JI ; Yuan SHAO ; Zhijian LIAO ; Guangping LUO ; Ling WEI
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2024;37(6):643-647
Objective To elucidate the prediction ability of monocyte monolayer assay(MMA)used in hemolytic dis-ease of fetus and newborn(HDFN)caused by IgG anti-M.Methods Plasma from eight pregnant women containing IgG an-ti-M were collected,and were divided into two groups(4 cases with HDFN,with severe clinical symptoms such as fetal hy-drops,and 4 cases without HDFN)according to the clinical outcomes.M antigen positive cells were sensitized with dithioth-reitol(DTT)treated plasma from eight pregnant women respectively.MMA was performed by coincubation with monocytes and sensitized M cells,along with negative and positive control set up.T-test was conducted to compare the difference in phagocytic efficiency between two groups.Results The phagocytic efficiency in group with HDFN were 15.37%,13.05%,9.17%and 24.50%respectively,with the mean value of 15.52%,while the group without HDFN were 8.74%,11.07%,5.12%and 6.23%respectively,with the mean value of 7.79%.There was no significant difference in phagocytic efficiency between two groups(P>0.05).The mean values of both groups were not significantly different from the negative control(P>0.05),but both were significantly lower than positive control(P<0.05).Conclusion The low phagocytic efficiency couldn't convince that the MMA is an effective predictor for the HDFN caused by IgG anti-M,indicating that another mech-anism might be responsible for it rather than monocyte phagocytosis.The assessment of the peak systolic velocity in middle cerebral artery of the fetal should be considered in the management for pregnant women who produce IgG anti-M to estimate the situation of fetal anemia.
8.The levels and clinical significance of serum miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection pneumonia
Chunyan QU ; Fan ZHANG ; Xiaohua YUAN ; Lihong CAI ; Bin LI ; Xiaohua ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1733-1738
To investigate the levels and clinical significance of serum microRNA ( miR) -146a, miR-145, T-helpertype17 (Th17)/regulatory T cell (Treg) in children with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infectious pneumonia. The clinical data of 200 children with RSV infectious pneumonia admitted to Nantong Maternal and Child Health Hospital from June 2020 to June 2023 were retrospectively collected as the study group. At the same time, 200 children with mycoplasma pneumonia were selected as the common pneumonia group and 200 healthy children were selected as the healthy group. The levels of serum inflammatory factors [interleukin-6 (IL-6), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)] were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The expression levels of serum miR-146a and miR-145 were detected by RT-qPCR. The levels of Th17/Treg were detected by flow cytometry. The levels of miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg and serum inflammatory factors were compared among the three groups. Pearson method was used to analyze the correlation between miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg and serum inflammatory factors in children with RSV infectious pneumonia. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the diagnostic value of miR-146a, miR-145, Th17/Treg in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection pneumonia. The results showed that in the study group, miR-146a (2.01±0.58), miR-145 (1.81±0.46), Th17/Treg (1.09±0.31), IL-6 (7.82±2.11) ng/L and TNF-α (9.82±2.96) ng/L were higher than those in the common pneumonia group miR-146a (1.49±0.42), miR-145 (1.43±0.31), Th17/Treg (0.77±0.24), IL-6 (5.89±1.32) ng/L, TNF-α (7.34±2.32) ng/L and healthy group miR-146a (1.25±0.19), miR-145 (1.19±0.16), Th17/Treg (0.38±0.09), IL-6 (4.52±1.04) ng/L, TNF-α (5.39±1.07)ng/L. The levels of the above indexes in the common pneumonia group were higher than those in the healthy group, and the differences were statistically significant ( F=183.543, 175.938, 617.182, 226.657, 193.459, P<0.05). In the study group, IFN-γ (14.18±3.25) pg/ml was lower than that in the control group (19.52±5.13) pg/ml, but higher than that in the healthy group (9.77±2.40) pg/ml, and the difference was statistically significant ( F=335.432, P<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis showed that miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg were positively correlated with IL-6 and TNF-α ( P<0.05), but negatively correlated with IFN-γ ( P<0.05). ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg in the diagnosis of RSV infectious pneumonia was 0.767, 0.762 and 0.790, respectively, while the combined detection of the three was 0.904. In conclusion, the levels of miR-146a, miR-145 and Th17/Treg are highly expressed in children with RSV infectious pneumonia, and are closely related to the inflammatory response of children. The combined detection of the three may have certain application value in the auxiliary diagnosis of RSV infectious pneumonia.
9.Investigation on pharmacognosic identification of two Yi Medicine in Yunnan province
LIN Chunyan ; FU Xingqing ; REN Jie ; DONG Yuan ; ZHANG Wenjie
Drug Standards of China 2024;25(1):010-017
Objective: To understand their appearance and microscopic characteristics, as well as their differences by studying the pharmacognosy of Yi medicine Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri, in order to provide a basis for identification and improvement of quality standards.
Methods: Stereo microscopy and optical microscopy and the macroscopic and microscopic identification methods were adopted to compare identification and digital representation for Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri from overall character, local characteristics, the microscopic identification characteristics, the transverse section and the powder.
Results:There were significant differences in the the macroscopic and the microscopic identification characteristics of Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri.
Conclusion: This study summarized the exclusive and practical features in pharmacognosic identification of Elsholtzia rugulosa and Elsholtzia bodinieri, it provides a useful reference for supervision the clinical medication,inspection,and standard drafting.
10.Association between dietary habits and sleep duration among middle school students in Shanghai
YIN Xiaoya, ZHAI Yani, YUAN Linlin, YAN Qiong, ZHOU Xinyi, LUO Chunyan, SUN Lijing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(8):1140-1143
Objective:
To explore the association between dietary behaviors and sleep duration among middle school students in Shanghai, so as to provide reference for interventions targeting insufficient sleep.
Methods:
From May to June 2021, a stratified cluster random sampling method was employed to select a sample of 10-17yearold middle school students for monitoring their healthrisk behaviors. A total of 5 538 valid questionnaires were collected. The survey included items such as daily sleep duration, weekly consumption of sugary beverages, freshly squeezed fruit juice, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, fried foods, milk and yogurt, breakfast habits, and frequency of eating outside. Statistical analysis was conducted using Chisquare test, Wilcoxon ranksum test, and multivariable Logistic regression model.
Results:
About 73.7% of middle school students reported insufficient sleep in Shanghai. There was a positive correlation between the average daily consumption of fresh fruits and breakfast consumption with sleep duration. In other words, a higher frequency of consuming fresh fruits (OR=1.29) and eating breakfast (OR=1.07) were associated with a higher likelihood of sufficient sleep. Conversely, there was a negative correlation between the frequency of consuming desserts (OR=0.78) and fried foods (OR=0.88) and sleep duration (P<0.05).
Conclusions
Increasing the consumption of fresh fruits and maintaining regular breakfast habits while reducing the intake of fried foods can contribute to achieving sufficient sleep among middle school students. When implementing interventions to improve sleep among middle school students, promoting healthy and balanced diets can be considered as one of the intervention strategies.


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