1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Comparison of small-sample multi-class machine learning models for plasma concentration prediction of valproic acid
Xi CHEN ; Shen’ao YUAN ; Hailing YUAN ; Jie ZHAO ; Peng CHEN ; Chunyan TIAN ; Yi SU ; Yunsong ZHANG ; Yu ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(11):1399-1404
OBJECTIVE To construct three-class (insufficient, normal, excessive) and two-class (insufficient, normal) models for predicting plasma concentration of valproic acid (VPA), and compare the performance of these two models, with the aim of providing a reference for formulating clinical medication strategies. METHODS The clinical data of 480 patients who received VPA treatment and underwent blood concentration test at the Xi’an International Medical Center Hospital were collected from November 2022 to September 2024 (a total of 695 sets of data). In this study, predictive models were constructed for target variables of three-class and two-class models. Feature ranking and selection were carried out using XGBoost scores. Twelve different machine learning algorithms were used for training and validation, and the performance of the models was evaluated using three indexes: accuracy, F1 score, and the area under the working characteristic curve of the subject (AUC). RESULTS XGBoost feature importance scores revealed that in the three-class model, the importance ranking of kidney disease and electrolyte disorders was higher. However, in the two-class model, the importance ranking of these features significantly decreased, suggesting a close association with the excessive blood concentration of VPA. In the three-class model, Random Forest method performed best, with F1 score of 0.704 0 and AUC of 0.519 3 on the test set; while in the two-class model, CatBoost method performed optimally, with F1 score of 0.785 7 and AUC of 0.819 5 on the test set. CONCLUSIONS The constructed three-class model has the ability to predict excessive VPA blood concentration, but its prediction and model generalization abilities are poor; the constructed two-class model can only perform classification prediction for insufficient and normal blood concentration cases, but its model performance is stronger.
3.Drug resistance in 38 cases of carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens infection in a grade Ⅲ level A general hospital in Shanghai
Yuan LI ; Liang TIAN ; Chunyan LI ; Yun LIU ; Wei JI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(6):484-489
ObjectiveTo understand the infection characteristics and drug resistance of carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens (CRSM) in a general hospital in Shanghai, and to provide a theoretical basis for clinical anti-infective treatment and prevention of drug-resistant bacteria. MethodsClinical data on cases with CRSM infections detected in clinical specimens at a gradeⅢ level A general hospital in Shanghai from June 2022 to June 2024 were retrospectively collected, and their clinical distributions, factors of hospital-acquired infections, prognosis, and drug-resistant situation were analyzed simultaneously. ResultsA total of 38 cases with CRSM were detected from June 2022 to June 2024, and the number of CRSM strains accounted for 25.00% (38/152) of the number of SM strains. The 38 CRSM infection samples were all derived from sputum. CRSM were distributed in 9 clinical departments, and the top 3 departments having the highest percentages of CRSM among SM strains, were intensive care unit (ICU) (78.79%, 26/33), gastrointestinal surgery department (57.14%, 4/7), and thyroid hernia surgery department (50.00%, 1/2). Among the 38 patients with CRSM infections, 8 cases were identified as hospital-acquired infection, resulting in a hospital-acquired infection rate of 21.05. The mortality rate of the 38 cases of CRSM infected patients within 30 days after detection of CRSM was 23.68% (9/38). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score
4.Reference values of carotid intima-media thickness and arterial stiffness in Chinese adults based on ultrasound radio frequency signal: A nationwide, multicenter study
Changyang XING ; Xiujing XIE ; Yu WU ; Lei XU ; Xiangping GUAN ; Fan LI ; Xiaojun ZHAN ; Hengli YANG ; Jinsong LI ; Qi ZHOU ; Yuming MU ; Qing ZHOU ; Yunchuan DING ; Yingli WANG ; Xiangzhu WANG ; Yu ZHENG ; Xiaofeng SUN ; Hua LI ; Chaoxue ZHANG ; Cheng ZHAO ; Shaodong QIU ; Guozhen YAN ; Hong YANG ; Yinjuan MAO ; Weiwei ZHAN ; Chunyan MA ; Ying GU ; Wu CHEN ; Mingxing XIE ; Tianan JIANG ; Lijun YUAN
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(15):1802-1810
Background::Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and diameter, stiffness, and wave reflections, are independent and important clinical biomarkers and risk predictors for cardiovascular diseases. The purpose of the present study was to establish nationwide reference values of carotid properties for healthy Chinese adults and to explore potential clinical determinants.Methods::A total of 3053 healthy Han Chinese adults (1922 women) aged 18-79 years were enrolled at 28 collaborating tertiary centers throughout China between April 2021 and July 2022. The real-time tracking of common carotid artery walls was achieved by the radio frequency (RF) ultrasound system. The IMT, diameter, compliance coefficient, β stiffness, local pulse wave velocity (PWV), local systolic blood pressure, augmented pressure (AP), and augmentation index (AIx) were then automatically measured and reported. Data were stratified by age groups and sex. The relationships between age and carotid property parameters were analyzed by Jonckheere-Terpstra test and simple linear regressions. The major clinical determinants of carotid properties were identified by Pearson’s correlation, multiple linear regression, and analyses of covariance.Results::All the parameters of carotid properties demonstrated significantly age-related trajectories. Women showed thinner IMT, smaller carotid diameter, larger AP, and AIx than men. The β stiffness and PWV were significantly higher in men than women before forties, but the differences reversed after that. The increase rate of carotid IMT (5.5 μm/year in women and 5.8 μm/year in men) and diameter (0.03 mm/year in both men and women) were similar between men and women. For the stiffness and wave reflections, women showed significantly larger age-related variations than men as demonstrated by steeper regression slopes (all P for age by sex interaction <0.05). The blood pressures, body mass index (BMI), and triglyceride levels were identified as major clinical determinants of carotid properties with adjustment of age and sex. Conclusions::The age- and sex-specific reference values of carotid properties measured by RF ultrasound for healthy Chinese adults were established. The blood pressures, BMI, and triglyceride levels should be considered for clinical application of corresponding reference values.
5.Pharmacognostic identification and digitization for three medicinal fruits from the Tibetan medicine
Xingqing FU ; Chunyan LIN ; Jie REN ; Yuan DONG ; Wenjie ZHANG
Drug Standards of China 2024;25(4):358-365
Objective:To explore the Pharmacognostic identification for the famous three medicinal fruits—Chebu-lae Fructus,Terminaliae Belliricae Fructus and Phyllanthi Fructus from the Tibetan medicine,and to establish the standards of the macroscopic,microscopic identification and digital characterization for the authentication study of three medicinal fruits from the Tibetan medicine.Methods:Using the terms and research methods of botanical morphological identification and classification,the comparative identification and digital characterization of three medicinal fruits from the Tibetan medicine were carried out by optical microscope,stereo microscope,digital cam-era and digital imaging technology from the aspects of front,side,abdomen,basic,surface appearance,cross sec-tion and longitudinal section characteristics,as well as the microscopic characteristics of cross section and powder.Then,the related characteristics were compared.Results:The macroscopic identification characters,such as the appearance,and microscopic identification characters,such as the epidermal cells,fiber,stone cells,calcium ox-alate cluster crystals,of three medicinal fruits from the Tibetan medicine were clarified,and the identification methods were summarized,in order to provide reference for the identification of three medicinal fruits from the Ti-betan medicine.Conclusion:The identification method is simple,environmental friendly,accurate and reliable,and can be used for the identification basis of four medicinal fruits from three medicinal fruits from the Tibetan medicine.
6.Trajectory of perioperative symptom cluster in middle-aged and elderly patients with gynecological malignant tumors: a longitudinal study
Xiuyun CUI ; Chunyan XU ; Jing ZHAO ; Jing SU ; Jing YUAN ; Jia ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2024;30(17):2323-2329
Objective:To explore the composition and trajectory of symptom clusters during perioperative period in middle-aged and elderly patients with gynecological malignant tumors, so as to provide reference for formulating symptom management programs.Methods:From December 2022 to September 2023, convenience sampling was used to select 145 middle-aged and elderly patients with gynecological malignant tumors who underwent surgical treatment at the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University as the study subject. A longitudinal survey was conducted on patients at four time points [1 day before surgery (T1), 1 day after surgery (T2), 3 days after surgery (T3), and 7 days after surgery (T4, before discharge) ] using the General Information Questionnaire and the Chinese version of the Anderson Symptom Inventory-Perioperative Module in Patients with Gynecological Cancer.Results:A total of 145 questionnaires were distributed, and 130 valid questionnaires were collected, with an effective response rate of 89.66% (130/145). Exploratory factor analysis extracted six symptom clusters, namely perimenopausal symptom cluster, psychological symptom cluster, fatigue-pain symptom cluster, gastrointestinal symptom cluster, energy deficiency symptom cluster, and surgery related symptom cluster. Perimenopausal symptom group was a specific symptom cluster of gynecological malignant tumor patients, existing at T1. Psychological symptom cluster persisted during the patient's perioperative period. Fatigue-pain symptom cluster and surgery related symptom cluster existed at T2 to T4. Gastrointestinal symptom cluster and energy deficiency symptom cluster existed at T2 and T3.Conclusions:Middle aged and elderly patients with gynecological malignant tumors have various symptoms during the perioperative period, and the symptoms can cluster at different time points. The number of symptom clusters increases with the progress of surgical treatment, while the core symptoms within the cluster remain relatively stable over time. Clinical nursing staff should pay attention to the dynamic changes in the patient's perioperative symptom cluster, adopt efficient and targeted management measures based on the trajectory of symptom clusters, and reduce the burden of perioperative symptoms on patients.
7.Related factors of depression symptom among middle-aged and older adults of Zhiguo ethnic minority groups in Yunnan Province
Xinping WANG ; Jie CHEN ; Xingmei DU ; Chunyan DENG ; Yuan HUANG ; Weiqing SHAO ; Rui DENG
Chinese Mental Health Journal 2024;38(8):666-673
Objective:To analyze the prevalence and related factors of depression symptom among middle-aged and older adults belonging to Zhiguo ethnic minority groups,who experienced relative isolation prior to mod-emization and bypassed the transitional period associated with feudal monarchy in Yunnan Province.Methods:Using stratified cluster sampling,a total of 1 035 individuals from Zhiguo ethnic minority groups were investigated with the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire(PHQ-9)to measure depression symptom scores(a total score≥5 was considered indicative of depression symptom).A self-administered questionnaire was utilized to investigate 24 cova-riates across five dimensions:sociodemographic,social-interpersonal network,mental health status,physical health status,and health behaviors.Results:Among the surveyed participants,231 individuals(22.32%)exhibited depres-sion symptoms.The logistic regression analysis showed that middle-aged and elderly people belonging to Zhiguo ethnic minority groups with occupations as laborers(OR=8.73),farmers(OR=7.34),and other professions(OR=7.13),those who reported feeling stressed or anxious in the last month(OR=5.43),those suffering from one(OR=2.81)or more chronic illnesses(OR=2.14),experiencing sleep problems(OR=3.74)/debilitating(OR=1.69)/mild-moderate pain(OR=2.23,4.37),and engaging in sedentary behavior(OR=2.27)were at higher risk for depressive symptoms.The risk of depressive symptoms was lower among middle-aged and elderly people be-longing to Zhiguo ethnic minority groups with higher social support scores(OR=0.96)and meaning in life scores(OR=0.96).Conclusion:The prevalence of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and elderly individuals of Zhiguo ethnic minorities is substantial,influenced by multiple factors.
8.Validity and reliability of the Chinese version of the Cyberbullying Bystander Scale in college students
Caihong YUAN ; Yafei JIA ; Qiongxiang LIU ; Wenqi ZHOU ; Chunyan ZHOU ; Chenling LIU
Chinese Mental Health Journal 2024;38(11):1003-1008
Objective:To test the validity and reliability of the Chinese version of the Cyberbullying Bystand-er Scale(CBS)in Chinese college students.Methods:Totally 722 college students were randomly divided into sample 1(n=356)and sample 2(n=366).Exploratory factor analysis was performed on sample 1,and confirma-tory factor analysis,criterion validity,and internal consistency reliability were performed on sample 2.The criterion validity was tested with the Short Form of Moral Disengagement Scale(MDS).Thirty-seven students of sample 2 were randomly selected and retested 2 week later.Results:The Chinese version of CBS contained 6 distinct factors(40 items),named passive outsider online,defender of the cybervictim online,reinforcer of the cyberbully online,passive face-to-face outsider,face to face defender of the cybervictim,face-to-face reinforcer of the cyberbully.The results of confirmatory factor analysis confirmed that the fitting index of the six-factor modelis good(x2/df=2.83,CFI=0.90,TLI=0.89,RMSEA=0.07,SRMR=0.06).The scores of passive outsider online,reinforcer of the cyberbully online,passive face-to-face outsider and face-to-face reinforcer of the cyberbully were positively correla-ted with the moral disengagement(ICC=0.11-0.28,Ps<0.05).The internal consistency reliabilities of the scale were from 0.89 to 0.96,the retest reliabilities(ICC)of the scale were between 0.75 to 0.89.Conclusion:The Chinese version of the Cyberbullying Bystander Scale(CBS)shows good validity and reliability in Chinese college students.
9.Report of six cases with mast cell leukemia and a literature review
Feng ZHU ; Yuan YU ; Chunyan CHEN ; Wenbing DUAN ; Qian JIANG ; Rui YAN ; Yu SUN ; Yanqiu HAN ; Jing ZHANG ; Huan WANG ; Qiurong ZHANG ; Suning CHEN ; Wanhui YAN ; Mengjie CAI ; Zhibo ZHANG ; Jia YIN ; Qian WANG
Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine 2024;63(10):996-1000
From October 2021 to February 2023, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical and laboratory data of six patients (three male and three female, median age: 54 years, age range: 29-73 years) with mast cell leukemia (MCL) diagnosed in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University (The Mastocytosis Collaborative Network of China). All patients had acute MCL, with at least one C-finding present. The main clinical presentations were hypoalbuminemia ( n=4), fatigue ( n=3), fever ( n=2), abdominal discomfort ( n=2), osteolytic lesions ( n=2), dizziness ( n=1), skin flushing ( n=1), and weight loss ( n=1). Splenomegaly and lymphadenopathy were noted in six and three patients, respectively. Six patients were strongly positive for CD117, five were positive for CD30 and CD25, and four were positive for CD2. Four patients had a normal karyotype and two patients had an abnormal karyotype. Gene mutations were detected in 4/6 cases. The median serum tryptase level was 24.9 (range: 20.1-171.9) μg/L. Two patients were treated with venetoclax and azacitidine for induction (one patient achieved partial remission by combination with afatinib, while there was no remission after combination with dasatinib in the other patient). Two patients did not achieve complete remission despite treatment with cladribine and imatinib, respectively. One patient treated with interferon combined with glucocorticoids was lost to follow-up, and one patient abandoned treatment. The follow-up time ranged from 1.1 to 21.7 months. Three patients died and two survived. Overall, MCL is a rare subtype of systemic mastocytosis with heterogeneous clinical course, and these patients have poor outcome. A better understanding of the clinical characteristics, treatment, and prognosis of MCL is urgently needed.
10.Effects of acupuncture and moxibustion on UHRF1 and DNMT1 in ectopic endometrium of rats with endometriosis
Mingyang LI ; Yanwen WANG ; Yanting SHAO ; Yichun SUN ; Jiawei HU ; Yuan GAO ; Yuran LI ; Chuting WU ; Chunyan ZHANG
Journal of Acupuncture and Tuina Science 2024;22(3):204-213
Objective:To observe the effects of acupuncture and moxibustion on ubiquitin-like containing PHD and RING finger domains 1(UHRF1)and DNA methyltransferase 1(DNMT1)in ectopic endometrium of rats with endometriosis(EMS). Methods:Forty Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into a sham operation group with 10 rats and a model-building group with 30 rats according to body mass.EMS rat models were established in the model-building group and then were divided into a model group,an acupuncture and moxibustion group,and a progesterone group,with 10 rats in each group.All rats were fixed by a fixator.The sham operation group and the model group were given normal saline by gavage.The acupuncture and moxibustion group received acupuncture at Xuehai(SP10)and Sanyinjiao(SP6),moxibustion at Guanyuan(CV4),and gavage of normal saline.The progesterone group was given the mixed liquid made of dydrogesterone and normal saline by gavage.After 28 d of treatments,the three diameters(length,width,and height)of EMS rats'ectopic cysts were measured,the cyst volumes were calculated,the volumes before intervention were subtracted,and the difference values were used to evaluate the growth of ectopic cysts.UHRF1 and DNMT1 mRNA and protein levels in normal endometrium,eutopic endometrium,and ectopic endometrium were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemistry. Results:There was no significant difference in the ectopic cyst volume difference between the acupuncture and moxibustion group and the progesterone group(P>0.05),but they were smaller than that of the model group(P<0.05).The levels of UHRF1 and DNMT1 mRNA and protein in the ectopic endometrium of the model group were lower than those in the normal endometrium(P<0.05).The levels of DNMT1 mRNA and UHRF1 protein in the eutopic endometrium of the model group were lower than those in the normal endometrium(P<0.05).The levels of UHRF1 mRNA and protein and the level of DNMT1 protein in the ectopic endometrium of the acupuncture and moxibustion group were higher than those in the model group(P<0.05),and the level of UHRF1 mRNA was higher than that in the progesterone group(P<0.05).The level of DNMT1 mRNA in the eutopic endometrium of the acupuncture and moxibustion group was higher than that in the model group(P<0.05).The levels of UHRF1 and DNMT1 mRNA and protein in the acupuncture and moxibustion group were insignificantly different from those in the normal endometrium(P>0.05). Conclusion:Acupuncture and moxibustion may up-regulate the levels of UHRF1 mRNA and UHRF1 and DNMT1 proteins in the ectopic endometrium to the normal level so as to reduce the volume of ectopic cysts and cure EMS in rats.


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