1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Traditional Chinese Medicine Intervenes in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease by Regulating TLR4 Signaling Pathway: A Review
Zhiwei SU ; Juan XUE ; Jun SUN ; Heng FAN ; Rui ZHU ; Chunyan JI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(5):291-299
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a chronic liver disease closely related to metabolism, which is mainly characterized by abnormal lipid deposition in hepatocytes. In recent years, with the increasing prevalence of obesity and metabolic syndrome, NAFLD has become one of the most common chronic diseases in the world. The pathogenesis of NAFLD is complex and varied, involving the cross-regulation of multiple signaling pathways such as glucose-lipid metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation. The TLR4 signaling pathway plays a key role in the development and progression of NAFLD, and abnormal activation of this pathway accelerates the deterioration of NAFLD by promoting the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, inducing oxidative stress, and exacerbating insulin resistance. Studies have shown that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) can regulate the TLR4 signaling pathway to alleviate the symptoms and pathological features of NAFLD. The present review summarizes the experimental research progress in the TCM regulation of the TLR4 signaling pathway in treating NAFLD in the past 5 years, covering a wide range of TCM active ingredients (such as polysaccharides, terpenoids, alkaloids, flavonoids) and compound prescriptions. The active ingredients and compound prescriptions of TCM can effectively ameliorate lipid metabolism disorders, reduce insulin resistance, regulate intestinal flora, and inhibit inflammation and oxidative stress by regulating the TLR4 signaling pathway via multiple targets and pathways, thus slowing down the progression of NAFLD. Through in-depth analysis of the pathological mechanisms of NAFLD and exploration of the potential of TLR4 signaling pathway as a therapeutic target, we can provide theoretical support for the application of TCM in the treatment of NAFLD, as well as new perspectives and directions for future clinical research and new drug development, thereby promoting the innovation and development of therapeutic strategies for NAFLD.
3.Reference values of carotid intima-media thickness and arterial stiffness in Chinese adults based on ultrasound radio frequency signal: A nationwide, multicenter study
Changyang XING ; Xiujing XIE ; Yu WU ; Lei XU ; Xiangping GUAN ; Fan LI ; Xiaojun ZHAN ; Hengli YANG ; Jinsong LI ; Qi ZHOU ; Yuming MU ; Qing ZHOU ; Yunchuan DING ; Yingli WANG ; Xiangzhu WANG ; Yu ZHENG ; Xiaofeng SUN ; Hua LI ; Chaoxue ZHANG ; Cheng ZHAO ; Shaodong QIU ; Guozhen YAN ; Hong YANG ; Yinjuan MAO ; Weiwei ZHAN ; Chunyan MA ; Ying GU ; Wu CHEN ; Mingxing XIE ; Tianan JIANG ; Lijun YUAN
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(15):1802-1810
Background::Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and diameter, stiffness, and wave reflections, are independent and important clinical biomarkers and risk predictors for cardiovascular diseases. The purpose of the present study was to establish nationwide reference values of carotid properties for healthy Chinese adults and to explore potential clinical determinants.Methods::A total of 3053 healthy Han Chinese adults (1922 women) aged 18-79 years were enrolled at 28 collaborating tertiary centers throughout China between April 2021 and July 2022. The real-time tracking of common carotid artery walls was achieved by the radio frequency (RF) ultrasound system. The IMT, diameter, compliance coefficient, β stiffness, local pulse wave velocity (PWV), local systolic blood pressure, augmented pressure (AP), and augmentation index (AIx) were then automatically measured and reported. Data were stratified by age groups and sex. The relationships between age and carotid property parameters were analyzed by Jonckheere-Terpstra test and simple linear regressions. The major clinical determinants of carotid properties were identified by Pearson’s correlation, multiple linear regression, and analyses of covariance.Results::All the parameters of carotid properties demonstrated significantly age-related trajectories. Women showed thinner IMT, smaller carotid diameter, larger AP, and AIx than men. The β stiffness and PWV were significantly higher in men than women before forties, but the differences reversed after that. The increase rate of carotid IMT (5.5 μm/year in women and 5.8 μm/year in men) and diameter (0.03 mm/year in both men and women) were similar between men and women. For the stiffness and wave reflections, women showed significantly larger age-related variations than men as demonstrated by steeper regression slopes (all P for age by sex interaction <0.05). The blood pressures, body mass index (BMI), and triglyceride levels were identified as major clinical determinants of carotid properties with adjustment of age and sex. Conclusions::The age- and sex-specific reference values of carotid properties measured by RF ultrasound for healthy Chinese adults were established. The blood pressures, BMI, and triglyceride levels should be considered for clinical application of corresponding reference values.
4.Association between coronary artery stenosis and myocardial injury in patients with acute pulmonary embolism: A case-control study
Yinjian YANG ; Chao LIU ; Jieling MA ; Xijie ZHU ; Jingsi MA ; Dan LU ; Xinxin YAN ; Xuan GAO ; Jia WANG ; Liting WANG ; Sijin ZHANG ; Xianmei LI ; Bingxiang WU ; Kai SUN ; Yimin MAO ; Xiqi XU ; Tianyu LIAN ; Chunyan CHENG ; Zhicheng JING
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(16):1965-1972
Background::The potential impact of pre-existing coronary artery stenosis (CAS) on acute pulmonary embolism (PE) episodes remains underexplored. This study aimed to investigate the association between pre-existing CAS and the elevation of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) levels in patients with PE.Methods::In this multicenter, prospective case-control study, 88 cases and 163 controls matched for age, sex, and study center were enrolled. Cases were patients with PE with elevated hs-cTnI. Controls were patients with PE with normal hs-cTnI. Coronary artery assessment utilized coronary computed tomographic angiography or invasive coronary angiography. CAS was defined as ≥50% stenosis of the lumen diameter in any coronary vessel >2.0 mm in diameter. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between CAS and hs-cTnI elevation.Results::The percentage of CAS was higher in the case group compared to the control group (44.3% [39/88] vs. 30.1% [49/163]; P = 0.024). In multivariable conditional logistic regression model 1, CAS (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.680; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.243–5.779), heart rate >75 beats/min (OR, 2.306; 95% CI, 1.056–5.036) and N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) >420 pg/mL (OR, 12.169; 95% CI, 4.792–30.900) were independently associated with elevated hs-cTnI. In model 2, right CAS (OR, 3.615; 95% CI, 1.467–8.909) and NT-proBNP >420 pg/mL (OR, 13.890; 95% CI, 5.288–36.484) were independently associated with elevated hs-cTnI. Conclusions::CAS was independently associated with myocardial injury in patients with PE. Vigilance towards CAS is warranted in patients with PE with elevated cardiac troponin levels.
5.Analysis of 45 elements in Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation based on ICP-MS and multivariate statistic method
Chunyan BI ; Jianqiao XUE ; Qian ZHU ; Yantao SUN
China Pharmacist 2024;27(5):762-771
Objective To determine and analyze the content of 45 inorganic elements in Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation and to provide a reference for the safety detection of Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation.Methods Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS)was used to ascertain the concentrations of 45 inorganic elements,including Li,B,Al,K,Zn and As from 16 batches of Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation which were gathered.The content determination findings were plotted as heatmaps,Pearson correlation analysis plot,PCA scatter plots,fingerprints,and control maps.The Pearson correlation analysis and PCA analysis were performed on the content determination results of 16 batches using SPSS 21.0,to evaluate the safety and quality uniformity of Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation.Results The inorganic elements in Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation were dominated by K and Ca.The content of different elements in the sample could be categorised into 5 levels.The content of various elements in different batches of Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation was similar.Pb,Cd,As,Hg and Cu were all within the safety limit as those specified in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia.Co,Y,Sm,Gd,Dy,Th,Al,Si,Fe,Sb and Tl were the characteristic inorganic elements of Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation.Conclusion This method is easy to operate and suitable for the determination of inorganic elements in Fufang Xiling Jiedu preparation,providing references for the clinical medication safety.
6.Effects of manual prompts in the first detection of lung function and fractional exhaled nitric oxide in patients with airway inflammation of unknown origin
Jingbo SUN ; Chunyan HAO ; Shaomin SHI ; Liping SUN
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2024;30(15):2021-2026
Objective:To explore the effect of manual prompts in the first detection of lung function and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) in patients with airway inflammation of unknown origin.Methods:From May 2018 to December 2020, convenience sampling was used to select 810 patients with airway inflammation of unknown origin in the Department of Respiratory of the China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University as the subject. Subjects were divided into a observation group ( n=406) and a control group ( n=404) . This study compared the quality control parameters of lung function detection [forced expiratory time (PET) , backward extrapolated volume (VBE) , time from forced expiratory to peak flow rate (FET-PET) , percentage of backward extrapolated volume to forced vital capacity (VBE/FVC%) ] , reproducibility parameters [variation between optimal and suboptimal forced vital capacity (ΔFVC) , variation between optimal and suboptimal first second forced expiratory volume (ΔFEV 1) ] , and detection efficiency indicators (detection time for lung function and FeNO, one-time success rate of FeNO detection) between two groups. Results:The VBE/FVC%, ΔFVC, and ΔFEV 1 in the observation group were lower than those in the control group, and the differences were statistically significant ( P<0.05) . The lung function and FeNO detection time of the observation group were shorter than those of the control group, and the one-time success rate of FeNO detection was higher than that of the control group, with statistical differences ( P<0.05) . Conclusions:In lung function and FeNO detection for the first time among patients with airway inflammation of unknown origin, manual prompts can improve the quality control and reproducibility of the detection, shorten the detection time, and increase the one-time success rate of FeNO detection.
7.Investigation on the quality management of intravenous therapy in 1 926 hospitals
Fangfang DONG ; Lei WANG ; Wei GAO ; Jingzhi GENG ; Wenyan SUN ; Yu WANG ; Qiaofang YANG ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Chunyan LI
Chinese Journal of Nursing 2024;59(20):2447-2455
Objective To investigate the current state of quality management on intravenous therapy in secondary and tertiary hospitals in China.This study aims to provide a reference for the development of relevant policies,promoting the professionalization,standardization,and homogenization of intravenous therapy.Methods By a convenience sampling method,intravenous therapy nursing managers from secondary and tertiary hospitals in 31 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities were selected as survey participants in November 2023.A self-designed questionnaire was used for the survey.Results A total of 2 129 questionnaires were collected,of which 1,926 were valid,resulting in a response rate of 90.47%.Among the 1926 hospitals,1 733(89.98%)had established quality evaluation standards for intravenous therapy,and 1 734(90.03%)conducted regular quality inspections for intravenous therapy or peripherally inserted central catheter(PICC)insertion and maintenance.Additionally,1 604 hospitals(83.28%)had established protocols for handling and reporting intravenous therapy or PICC-related complications,and 1 574 hospitals(81.72%)regularly collected and analyzed data related to intravenous therapy or PICC insertion and maintenance.Moreover,371 hospitals(19.26%)had implemented intravenous therapy information management systems.Regarding various types of intravenous therapy documents,the highest rate of document types was informed consent forms,with a compliance rate of over 80.00%,followed by insertion records and catheter maintenance records,respectively.The lowest rate was complication management records,with a compliance rate of less than 50.00%.For catheter maintenance protocols,the highest compliance rate was for maintenance procedures,at over 85.00%,followed by insertion procedures.Except for PICCs,the compliance rate for establishing catheter removal and complication management procedures for other types of catheters was less than 65.00%.In terms of quality management of intravenous therapy,there are significant differences between secondary and tertiary hospitals.Conclusion The quality evaluation standards for intravenous therapy are relatively comprehensive,but the informatization of intravenous therapy quality management is still underdeveloped.Furthermore,there is a need to further standardize the documentation and procedures related to intravenous therapy,and there are differences in the level of intravenous therapy management among hospitals of different levels.
8.Progress of nuclide targeted α-particle therapy for blood tumors
Shanqi HUO ; Jin WANG ; Bei ZHANG ; Kai CAO ; Shaohua SUN ; Cheng CHEN ; Chunyan LIU ; Shicang SU
Chinese Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging 2024;44(9):564-568
The incidence of blood tumors is getting higher and higher. In addition to traditional chemoradiotherapy, in recent years, with the development of nuclear medicine technology and nuclide, nuclide therapy is playing an increasingly important role in the treatment of blood tumors. At present, the main research on the treatment of blood tumors focuses on acute myeloid leukemia (AML), but progress has also been made in other blood tumors. 213Bi and 225Ac-labeled monoclonal antibodies have achieved good results in blood tumors. 225Ac has overcome the short half-life of 213Bi and the problems of transportation and preservation. However, there are still many problems to be solved in the clinical use of α particles. This article reviews the progress of α-particle therapy in blood system, in order to provide a broader idea for the treatment of blood tumors.
9.Report of six cases with mast cell leukemia and a literature review
Feng ZHU ; Yuan YU ; Chunyan CHEN ; Wenbing DUAN ; Qian JIANG ; Rui YAN ; Yu SUN ; Yanqiu HAN ; Jing ZHANG ; Huan WANG ; Qiurong ZHANG ; Suning CHEN ; Wanhui YAN ; Mengjie CAI ; Zhibo ZHANG ; Jia YIN ; Qian WANG
Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine 2024;63(10):996-1000
From October 2021 to February 2023, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical and laboratory data of six patients (three male and three female, median age: 54 years, age range: 29-73 years) with mast cell leukemia (MCL) diagnosed in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University (The Mastocytosis Collaborative Network of China). All patients had acute MCL, with at least one C-finding present. The main clinical presentations were hypoalbuminemia ( n=4), fatigue ( n=3), fever ( n=2), abdominal discomfort ( n=2), osteolytic lesions ( n=2), dizziness ( n=1), skin flushing ( n=1), and weight loss ( n=1). Splenomegaly and lymphadenopathy were noted in six and three patients, respectively. Six patients were strongly positive for CD117, five were positive for CD30 and CD25, and four were positive for CD2. Four patients had a normal karyotype and two patients had an abnormal karyotype. Gene mutations were detected in 4/6 cases. The median serum tryptase level was 24.9 (range: 20.1-171.9) μg/L. Two patients were treated with venetoclax and azacitidine for induction (one patient achieved partial remission by combination with afatinib, while there was no remission after combination with dasatinib in the other patient). Two patients did not achieve complete remission despite treatment with cladribine and imatinib, respectively. One patient treated with interferon combined with glucocorticoids was lost to follow-up, and one patient abandoned treatment. The follow-up time ranged from 1.1 to 21.7 months. Three patients died and two survived. Overall, MCL is a rare subtype of systemic mastocytosis with heterogeneous clinical course, and these patients have poor outcome. A better understanding of the clinical characteristics, treatment, and prognosis of MCL is urgently needed.
10.Pregnancy outcomes of expectant management in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes before 28 weeks
Mengying ZHANG ; Malipati MAERDAN ; Xiao SUN ; Xin ZHANG ; Chunyan SHI ; Huixia YANG
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine 2024;27(10):809-815
Objective:To explore the feasibility of expectant management in pregnant women with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) before 28 weeks of gestation.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 92 pregnant women diagnosed with PPROM before 28 weeks and delivered in Peking University First Hospital from January 2015 to March 2023. These women were divided into the termination group or expectant management group, and the latter was further divided based on whether the rupture of membranes occurred before 24 weeks or after. Clinical data of the women and neonates between the two groups and the two subgroups were analyzed. Additionally, all the subjects were divided based on the presence or absence of severe neonatal complications and clinical data of the mothers and their neonates were also analyzed. Statistical analyses were performed using t-tests, Mann-Whitney U tests, Chi-square tests, or Fisher's exact tests. Results:(1) Among the 92 women with PPROM, 53 (57.6%) chose to terminate the pregnancy, while 39 (42.4%) chose expectant management including ten twins and 29 singletons. (2) Compared to the termination group, the expectant management group had a smaller percentage of multiparous women [7.7% (3/39) vs. 32.1% (17/53), Fisher's exact test, P=0.019], greater gestational age at membrane rupture [24 +6 weeks (18-27 +6) weeks vs.21 +3weeks (14 +2-27 weeks), Z=53.14, P=0.042], and a lower incidence of oligohydramnios after membrane rupture [46.2% (18/39) vs. 84.9% (45/53), χ2=6.56, P=0.031]. (3) All of the 39 women in the expectant group gave birth before 37 weeks with the mean gestational age at delivery of 28 +1weeks (25 +1-36 +1 weeks) and 49 live born babies, among which four neonates died giving the survival rate of 91.8%(45/49). There were no statistically significant differences in gestational age at delivery or neonatal outcomes between women with membrane rupture before 24 weeks and those ruptured between 24 and 27 weeks and 6 days of gestation (all P>0.05), but the expectant duration was significantly longer in the former group [55.0 d (20.0-96.0 d) vs. 9.0 d (0.5-52.0 d ), Z=-4.95, P<0.001]. (4) The 49 neonates were further divided into with ( n=9, including the death) or without ( n=40) severe complication subgroups. Those neonates in the non-severe complication subgroup had a significantly greater gestational age at birth compared to those in the other subgroup [30 +6 weeks (27 +5-36 +4 weeks) vs. 27 +5 weeks (25 +1-31 +5 weeks), Z=-3.42, P=0.001], a longer expectant duration [42.0 d (3.0-80.0 d) vs. 19.0 d (0.5-59.0 d), Z=-2.31, P=0.021], a higher birth weight [(1 630±544) g vs. (1 069±272) g, t=4.56, P=0.009], a lower incidence of neonatal asphyxia [2/9 vs. 70.0% (28/40), Fisher's exact test, P=0.012], a shorter hospital stay [37.5 d (3.0-54.0 d) vs. 67.0 d (60.0-105.0 d), Z=-3.01, P=0.003] and a higher proportion of pregnancies completing two courses of fetal lung maturation [5/9 vs. 17.5% (7/40), Fisher's exact test, P=0.029]. (5) Among the ten twin pregnancies, all the 20 babies developed severe complication resulting a higher proportion of twins in the severe complication group than in the non-severe complication group [50% (20/40) vs. 0/9, Fisher's exact test, P=0.005]. Conclusions:For pregnant women with PPROM before 28 weeks, under the premise of informed consent and thorough evaluation, expectant management can be considered if there are no indications for immediate termination of pregnancy, to achieve a higher neonatal survival rate. However, the incidence of severe complications related to preterm infants remains high in the short term, with most having a good prognosis after treatment in the neonatal intensive care unit. Twin pregnancies and lower gestational age at birth are risk factors for severe complications in preterm infants.


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