INTRODUCTION: The 30-day readmission rate for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common performance metric but may be confounded by factors unrelated to quality of care. Our aim was to assess how sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity and frailty impact 30-day readmission risk after COPD hospitalisation, and whether risk adjustment alters interpretation of temporal trends. METHOD: This is a retrospective analysis of administra-tive data from October 2017 to June 2023 from Changi General Hospital, Singapore. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate unadjusted and risk-adjusted 30-day readmission odds. Covariates included age, sex, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and year. Temporal trends in readmission risk were compared across unadjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: Of the 2774 admissions, 749 (27%) resulted in 30-day readmissions. Higher CCI (CCI≥4 versus [vs] CCI=1: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.99, P=0.003; CCI 2-3 vs CCI=1: aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.96, P=0.001) and higher HFRS (≥5 vs <5: aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.65, P=0.04) were independently associated with increased readmission risk. While unadjusted analyses showed no significant temporal trends, the risk-adjusted model revealed a 32-35% reduction in readmission odds in 2021-2023 compared to baseline. CONCLUSION Multimorbidity and frailty significantly impact COPD readmissions. Risk adjustment revealed improvements in readmission risk not evident in unadjusted analyses, emphasising the importance of applying risk adjustments to ensure valid performance metrics.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/therapy* ; Patient Readmission/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Aged ; Singapore/epidemiology* ; Multimorbidity ; Frailty/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Risk Adjustment ; Aged, 80 and over ; Logistic Models ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Despite some studies identifying a potential association between obesity and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk, previous research had overlooked the dynamic nature of body weight over time, leading to inconsistent findings. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the relationship between adult weight change and COPD risk by adjusting for potential confounding factors. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from ten NHANES cycles (1999-2018), including adults aged 40-74 years. Weight change patterns were assessed using BMI at three time points and classified into five categories per period. Absolute weight change was also grouped into five levels. Multivariate logistic regression models, incorporating sampling weights, were used to examine associations between weight change and COPD, adjusting for demographic and lifestyle covariates. RESULTS: Compared with participants who maintained normal weight, stable obesity participants had increased risk of COPD from age 25 years to 10 years before the survey (OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.83), in the 10 years period before the survey (OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.47 to 2.08), and from age 25 years to survey (OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.46 to 2.31). Three periods indicate that weight gain in adulthood was associated with risk of COPD. In addition, substantial weight gain of more than 20 kg was associated with a higher risk of COPD. In stratified analyses, we also observed a more significant association between weight change and the risk of COPD in never smokers compared to former smokers. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggested that stable obesity and weight gain in adulthood were associated with an increased risk of COPD compared to those who maintain a normal weight, and that the association between weight gain and the incidence of COPD appears closer in patients who have never smoked.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/etiology* ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Aged ; Retrospective Studies ; Weight Gain ; Obesity/complications* ; Risk Factors ; United States/epidemiology* ; Nutrition Surveys ; Body Mass Index

OBJECTIVE: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034. METHODS: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one. CONCLUSION COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Incidence ; Asia/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between physical activity and genetic risk and their combined effects on the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 318,085 biobank participants from the UK. Physical activity was assessed using the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The participants were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-genetic-risk groups based on their polygenic risk scores. Multivariate Cox regression models and multiplicative interaction analyses were used. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 13 years, 9,209 participants were diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. For low genetic risk, compared to low physical activity, the hazard ratios ( HRs) for moderate and high physical activity were 0.853 (95% confidence interval [ CI]: 0.748-0.972) and 0.831 (95% CI: 0.727-0.950), respectively. For intermediate genetic risk, the HRs were 0.829 (95% CI: 0.758-0.905) and 0.835 (95% CI: 0.764-0.914), respectively. For participants with high genetic risk, the HRs were 0.809 (95% CI: 0.746-0.877) and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.754-0.888), respectively. A significant interaction was observed between genetic risk and physical activity. CONCLUSION Moderate or high levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across all genetic risk groups, highlighting the need to tailor activity interventions for genetically susceptible individuals.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Exercise ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Prospective Studies ; Aged ; Genetic Predisposition to Disease ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Adult

OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major health concern in northwest China; however, the impact of particulate matter (PM) exposure during sand-dust storms (SDS) remains poorly understood. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between PM exposure on SDS days and COPD hospitalization risk in arid regions. METHODS: Data on daily COPD hospitalizations were collected from 323 hospitals from 2018 to 2022, along with the corresponding air pollutant and meteorological data for each city in Gansu Province. Employing a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional Poisson regression, we analyzed 265,379 COPD hospitalizations. RESULTS: PM exposure during SDS days significantly increased COPD hospitalization risk [relative risk ( RR) for PM _2.5, lag 3:1.028, 95% confidence interval ( CI): 1.021-1.034], particularly among men and the elderly, and during the cold season. The burden of PM exposure on COPD hospitalization was substantially high in Northwest China, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions. CONCLUSION Our findings revealed a positive correlation between PM exposure during SDS episodes and elevated hospitalization rates for COPD in arid and semi-arid zones in China. This highlights the urgency of developing region-specific public health strategies to address adverse respiratory outcomes associated with SDS-related air quality deterioration.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/chemically induced* ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects* ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Adult ; Sand ; Air Pollution

Objective To investigate the association between gastroesophageal reflux disease(GERD)and the risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and explore potential effect modifiers influencing this association.Methods Clinical data from 476 175 participants in the UK Biobank(2006-2010)were collected.A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the relationship between GERD and the risk of incident COPD.Subgroup analyses were conducted to examine potential modifiers of the primary findings.Results A total of 11 587(2.43%)new COPD cases were diagnosed.The Cox proportional hazards model revealed that GERD was associated with an increased risk of incident COPD(HR=1.59,95%CI=1.46-1.74,P<0.001).GERD was linked to a higher risk of incident COPD in individuals aged<60 years(P<0.001)and non-smokers(P=0.011).No association was observed between GERD and the risk of incident COPD in current smokers with a daily cigarette consumption<10 cigarettes(P=0.261).Conclusion GERD may increase the risk of incident COPD.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Gastroesophageal Reflux/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Female ; Aged

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a causal relationship between ambient ozone (O 3 ) and mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which is the only outcome considered in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 for O 3 . This study aims to evaluate the temporal trend and spatial distribution of the COPD burden attributable to O 3 across China from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: The ambient O 3 concentrations in China were estimated. Based on the methodology framework and standard analytical methods applied in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we estimated the annual number, age-standardized rate, and percentage of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from COPD attributable to O 3 pollution during 1990-2021 at the national and provincial levels in China. RESULTS: In 2021, a total of 125.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 26.4-228.3) thousand deaths and 1917.5 (95% UI, 398.7-3504.6) thousand DALYs from COPD were attributable to ambient O 3 pollution in China, accounting for 9.8% (95% UI, 2.1-17.0%) and 8.1% (95% UI, 1.8-14.1%) of the total COPD deaths and DALYs, respectively. Generally, a higher burden was observed among males, the elderly, and the population residing in regions with worse health conditions. The age-standardized rates of COPD deaths and DALYs per 100,000 populations ranged from 0.5 (95% UI, 0-1.4) and 8.1 (95% UI, 0.7-20.9) in Hong Kong to 22.8 (95% UI, 3.9-43.5) and 396.6 (95% UI, 68.9-763.7) in Xizang. From 1990 to 2021, there was a notable decrease in the age-standardized rates of COPD-related deaths (68.2%, 95% UI, 60.1-74.9%) and DALYs (71.5%, 95% UI, 63.7-77.6%), especially in regions with poor health conditions. However, the attributable numbers and percentages changed relatively marginally. CONCLUSIONS Ambient O 3 pollution is a major contributor to the COPD burden in China. Our findings highlight the significant spatial heterogeneity across different provinces and underscore the implementation of geographically tailored policies to effectively reduce O 3 pollution and alleviate the associated disease burden.
Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/etiology* ; Ozone/analysis* ; Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Male ; Air Pollution/adverse effects* ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

Objective: To explore the characteristics, patterns of multimorbidity and the impact on quality of life and the prognosis of middle-aged and elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods: This is a cross-sectional study. From January 2012 to December 2021, 939 middle-aged and elderly COPD patients hospitalized in Beijing Hospital were selected by the convenient sampling method. The basic data of patients and the date of 16 common chronic diseases were collected. Patterns of multimorbidity were depicted by cluster analysis. Generalized linear regression model and logistic regression were used to evaluate the multimorbidity patterns and their prognosis. Results: At least one multimorbidity existed among 93.40% of COPD patients, and the median number of multimorbidity was 3. The top five multimorbidity among the patients were hypertension (57.93%, 544/939), coronary heart disease (33.76%,317/939), heart failure (31.95%,300/939), hyperlipidemia (31.63%,297/939) and arrhythmia (27.37%,257/939). Four multimorbidity patterns were identified, cardiometabolic and metabolic multimorbidity, kidney disease multimorbidity, respiratory-digestive-tumor multimorbidity and other multimorbidity. Cardiometabolic and metabolic multimorbidity was most common (590/939, 62.83%). Compared with non-cardiometabolic and metabolic multimorbidity, the incharge ADL score of patients with this multimorbidity decreased by 7 points (95%CI:-11.22- -3.34), Correspondingly, patients with kidney disease multimorbidity decreased by 14 points (95%CI:-24.12- -3.30) on the incharge score. The presence or absence of kidney disease multimorbidity had the greatest impact on discharge score, which was reduced by 12 points in comparison with patients without this multimorbidity (95%CI:-22.43- -2.40). ICU admission is mostly affected by the presence of cardiometabolic and metabolic multimorbidity (OR=2.44, 95%CI: 1.51-3.92) and kidney disease multimorbidity (OR=2.58, 95%CI: 1.01-6.60). The risk of death is the highest for cardiometabolic and metabolic multimorbidity (OR=2.24, 95%CI: 1.19-4.21). Conclusion: Multimorbidity is common in COPD patients. The most common pattern is cardiometabolic and metabolic multimorbidity. Cardiometabolic and metabolic multimorbidity and kidney disease multimorbidity significantly affect the quality of life and often associate with a poor prognosis.
Aged ; Middle Aged ; Humans ; Multimorbidity ; Inpatients ; Prevalence ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Quality of Life ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Chronic Disease

Objective: To understand the incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the Suzhou cohort, and explore the risk factors for the development of COPD in Suzhou, and provide a scientific basis for COPD prevention. Methods: This study was based on the China Kadoorie Biobank project in Wuzhong District, Suzhou. After excluding individuals with airflow obstruction and self-reported chronic bronchitis, emphysema, or pulmonary heart disease at baseline, 45 484 individuals were finally included in the analysis. Cox proportional risk models were used to analyze risk factors of COPD and calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI) in the Suzhou cohort. The effect modifications of smoking on the association between other risk factors and COPD were evaluated. Results: Complete follow-up was available through December 31, 2017. Participants were followed up for a median of 11.12 years, and 524 individuals were diagnosed with COPD during the follow-up period; the incidence was 105.54 per 100 000 person-years. Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression models showed that age (HR=3.78, 95%CI:3.32-4.30), former smoking (HR=2.00, 95%CI:1.24-3.22), current smoking (<10 cigarettes/day, HR=2.14, 95%CI:1.36-3.35;≥10 cigarettes/day, HR=2.69, 95%CI:1.60-4.54), history of respiratory disease (HR=2.08, 95%CI:1.33-3.26), daily sleep duration ≥10 hours (HR=1.41, 95%CI:1.02-1.95) were associated with increased risk of COPD. However, education level of primary school and above (primary or junior high school, HR=0.65, 95%CI:0.52-0.81; high school and above, HR=0.54, 95%CI:0.33-0.87), consuming fresh fruit daily (HR=0.59, 95%CI:0.42-0.83) and consuming spicy food weekly (HR=0.71, 95%CI:0.53-0.94) were associated with reduced risk of COPD. Conclusions: The incidence of COPD is low in Suzhou. Older age, smoking, history of respiratory disease, and long sleep duration were risk factors for the development of COPD in the Suzhou cohort.
Humans ; Incidence ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors ; Smoking/epidemiology* ; Tobacco Smoking

Objective: To analyze the case characteristics of Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease caused by occupational irritant chemicals (OI-COPD). To provide basis for revising its diagnostic criteria. Methods: From June to December 2021, we investigated the information of OI-COPD patients confirmed by Shandong Institute of Occupational Health and Prevention of Occupational Diseases, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Institute of Occupational Disease Prevention and Control, Qingdao Central Hospital affiliated to Qingdao University and other diagnostic institutions in the past five years, a total of 41 cases. The basic information of OI-COPD cases, occupational risk factors exposure information, medical history, smoking history and clinical symptoms were analyzed retrospectively. The measurement data were tested for normal distribution, which was described by x±s, and compared between groups by t test; Those who do not conform to the normal distribution are described by the median [M (Q(1), Q(3)) ] and analyzed by nonparametric test; The counting data were expressed in frequency and rate (% ), and the comparison between groups was tested. Results: Of the 41 cases, 33 were male and 8 were female. The age of the patient diagnosed with OI-COPD was (49.5±10.3) years old, and the minimum age was 30 years old; Among them, 8 patients had a definite long-term smoking history (more than 5 years) ; The exposure duration of occupational risk factors was (18.6±10.3) years, of which 3 patients had exposure duration of less than 5 years; The occupational risk factors leading to OI-COPD include acids and acid-forming compounds, bases, aldehydes, nitrogen oxides, chlorine and its compounds, etc. The exposure level of occupational risk factors is related to the degree of COPD airflow restriction (χ(2)=6.17, P <0.05). 18 patients with diagnosis age <50 years old were diagnosed as early-onset COPD. The incidence of respiratory symptoms in the early diagnosis COPD group was lower than that in the non-early diagnosis COPD group, and the FEV1% pred was significantly higher than that in the non-early diagnosis COPD group. The difference was statistically significant (P<0.01 ) . Conclusion: The exposure level of occupational risk factors may be the risk factor affecting the degree of COPD airflow restriction. With the increase of the exposure level of COPD patients, the proportion of respiratory symptoms will also increase accordingly.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Retrospective Studies ; China/epidemiology* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/diagnosis* ; Lung ; Risk Factors ; Occupational Diseases/diagnosis* ; Occupational Exposure/adverse effects*