INTRODUCTION: The 30-day readmission rate for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common performance metric but may be confounded by factors unrelated to quality of care. Our aim was to assess how sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity and frailty impact 30-day readmission risk after COPD hospitalisation, and whether risk adjustment alters interpretation of temporal trends. METHOD: This is a retrospective analysis of administra-tive data from October 2017 to June 2023 from Changi General Hospital, Singapore. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate unadjusted and risk-adjusted 30-day readmission odds. Covariates included age, sex, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and year. Temporal trends in readmission risk were compared across unadjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: Of the 2774 admissions, 749 (27%) resulted in 30-day readmissions. Higher CCI (CCI≥4 versus [vs] CCI=1: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.99, P=0.003; CCI 2-3 vs CCI=1: aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.96, P=0.001) and higher HFRS (≥5 vs <5: aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.65, P=0.04) were independently associated with increased readmission risk. While unadjusted analyses showed no significant temporal trends, the risk-adjusted model revealed a 32-35% reduction in readmission odds in 2021-2023 compared to baseline. CONCLUSION Multimorbidity and frailty significantly impact COPD readmissions. Risk adjustment revealed improvements in readmission risk not evident in unadjusted analyses, emphasising the importance of applying risk adjustments to ensure valid performance metrics.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/therapy* ; Patient Readmission/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Aged ; Singapore/epidemiology* ; Multimorbidity ; Frailty/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Risk Adjustment ; Aged, 80 and over ; Logistic Models ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Despite some studies identifying a potential association between obesity and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk, previous research had overlooked the dynamic nature of body weight over time, leading to inconsistent findings. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the relationship between adult weight change and COPD risk by adjusting for potential confounding factors. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from ten NHANES cycles (1999-2018), including adults aged 40-74 years. Weight change patterns were assessed using BMI at three time points and classified into five categories per period. Absolute weight change was also grouped into five levels. Multivariate logistic regression models, incorporating sampling weights, were used to examine associations between weight change and COPD, adjusting for demographic and lifestyle covariates. RESULTS: Compared with participants who maintained normal weight, stable obesity participants had increased risk of COPD from age 25 years to 10 years before the survey (OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.83), in the 10 years period before the survey (OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.47 to 2.08), and from age 25 years to survey (OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.46 to 2.31). Three periods indicate that weight gain in adulthood was associated with risk of COPD. In addition, substantial weight gain of more than 20 kg was associated with a higher risk of COPD. In stratified analyses, we also observed a more significant association between weight change and the risk of COPD in never smokers compared to former smokers. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggested that stable obesity and weight gain in adulthood were associated with an increased risk of COPD compared to those who maintain a normal weight, and that the association between weight gain and the incidence of COPD appears closer in patients who have never smoked.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/etiology* ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Aged ; Retrospective Studies ; Weight Gain ; Obesity/complications* ; Risk Factors ; United States/epidemiology* ; Nutrition Surveys ; Body Mass Index

OBJECTIVE: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034. METHODS: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one. CONCLUSION COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Incidence ; Asia/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between physical activity and genetic risk and their combined effects on the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 318,085 biobank participants from the UK. Physical activity was assessed using the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The participants were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-genetic-risk groups based on their polygenic risk scores. Multivariate Cox regression models and multiplicative interaction analyses were used. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 13 years, 9,209 participants were diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. For low genetic risk, compared to low physical activity, the hazard ratios ( HRs) for moderate and high physical activity were 0.853 (95% confidence interval [ CI]: 0.748-0.972) and 0.831 (95% CI: 0.727-0.950), respectively. For intermediate genetic risk, the HRs were 0.829 (95% CI: 0.758-0.905) and 0.835 (95% CI: 0.764-0.914), respectively. For participants with high genetic risk, the HRs were 0.809 (95% CI: 0.746-0.877) and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.754-0.888), respectively. A significant interaction was observed between genetic risk and physical activity. CONCLUSION Moderate or high levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across all genetic risk groups, highlighting the need to tailor activity interventions for genetically susceptible individuals.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Exercise ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Prospective Studies ; Aged ; Genetic Predisposition to Disease ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Adult

OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major health concern in northwest China; however, the impact of particulate matter (PM) exposure during sand-dust storms (SDS) remains poorly understood. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between PM exposure on SDS days and COPD hospitalization risk in arid regions. METHODS: Data on daily COPD hospitalizations were collected from 323 hospitals from 2018 to 2022, along with the corresponding air pollutant and meteorological data for each city in Gansu Province. Employing a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional Poisson regression, we analyzed 265,379 COPD hospitalizations. RESULTS: PM exposure during SDS days significantly increased COPD hospitalization risk [relative risk ( RR) for PM _2.5, lag 3:1.028, 95% confidence interval ( CI): 1.021-1.034], particularly among men and the elderly, and during the cold season. The burden of PM exposure on COPD hospitalization was substantially high in Northwest China, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions. CONCLUSION Our findings revealed a positive correlation between PM exposure during SDS episodes and elevated hospitalization rates for COPD in arid and semi-arid zones in China. This highlights the urgency of developing region-specific public health strategies to address adverse respiratory outcomes associated with SDS-related air quality deterioration.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/chemically induced* ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects* ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Adult ; Sand ; Air Pollution

Objective To investigate the association between gastroesophageal reflux disease(GERD)and the risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and explore potential effect modifiers influencing this association.Methods Clinical data from 476 175 participants in the UK Biobank(2006-2010)were collected.A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the relationship between GERD and the risk of incident COPD.Subgroup analyses were conducted to examine potential modifiers of the primary findings.Results A total of 11 587(2.43%)new COPD cases were diagnosed.The Cox proportional hazards model revealed that GERD was associated with an increased risk of incident COPD(HR=1.59,95%CI=1.46-1.74,P<0.001).GERD was linked to a higher risk of incident COPD in individuals aged<60 years(P<0.001)and non-smokers(P=0.011).No association was observed between GERD and the risk of incident COPD in current smokers with a daily cigarette consumption<10 cigarettes(P=0.261).Conclusion GERD may increase the risk of incident COPD.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Gastroesophageal Reflux/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Female ; Aged

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a causal relationship between ambient ozone (O 3 ) and mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which is the only outcome considered in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 for O 3 . This study aims to evaluate the temporal trend and spatial distribution of the COPD burden attributable to O 3 across China from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: The ambient O 3 concentrations in China were estimated. Based on the methodology framework and standard analytical methods applied in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we estimated the annual number, age-standardized rate, and percentage of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from COPD attributable to O 3 pollution during 1990-2021 at the national and provincial levels in China. RESULTS: In 2021, a total of 125.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 26.4-228.3) thousand deaths and 1917.5 (95% UI, 398.7-3504.6) thousand DALYs from COPD were attributable to ambient O 3 pollution in China, accounting for 9.8% (95% UI, 2.1-17.0%) and 8.1% (95% UI, 1.8-14.1%) of the total COPD deaths and DALYs, respectively. Generally, a higher burden was observed among males, the elderly, and the population residing in regions with worse health conditions. The age-standardized rates of COPD deaths and DALYs per 100,000 populations ranged from 0.5 (95% UI, 0-1.4) and 8.1 (95% UI, 0.7-20.9) in Hong Kong to 22.8 (95% UI, 3.9-43.5) and 396.6 (95% UI, 68.9-763.7) in Xizang. From 1990 to 2021, there was a notable decrease in the age-standardized rates of COPD-related deaths (68.2%, 95% UI, 60.1-74.9%) and DALYs (71.5%, 95% UI, 63.7-77.6%), especially in regions with poor health conditions. However, the attributable numbers and percentages changed relatively marginally. CONCLUSIONS Ambient O 3 pollution is a major contributor to the COPD burden in China. Our findings highlight the significant spatial heterogeneity across different provinces and underscore the implementation of geographically tailored policies to effectively reduce O 3 pollution and alleviate the associated disease burden.
Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/etiology* ; Ozone/analysis* ; Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Male ; Air Pollution/adverse effects* ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2017 proposed a new classification that reclassified many chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients from group D to B. However, there is a paucity of data related to the comparison between reclassified and non-reclassified COPD patients in terms of long-term prognosis. This study aimed to investigate long-term outcomes of them and determine whether the GOLD 2017 revision improved the assessment of COPD patients. METHODS: This observational, multicenter, prospective study recruited outpatients at 12 tertiary hospitals in China from November 2016 to February 2018 and followed them up until February 2022. All enrolled patients were classified into groups A to D based on GOLD 2017, and the subjects in group B included patients reclassified from group D to B (group DB) and those remaining in group B (group BB). Incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for the exacerbation of COPD and hospitalization in each group. RESULTS: We included and followed up 845 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the GOLD 2017 classification had a better discrimination ability for different risks of COPD exacerbation and hospitalization than GOLD 2013. Group DB was associated with a higher risk of moderate-to-severe exacerbation (HR = 1.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37-2.59, P  <0.001) and hospitalization for COPD exacerbation (HR = 2.23, 95% CI = 1.29-3.85, P  = 0.004) than group BB. However, during the last year of follow-up, the differences in the risks of frequent exacerbations and hospitalizations between group DB and BB were not statistically significant (frequent exacerbations: HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.51-2.03, P  = 0.955; frequent hospitalizations: HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 0.58-4.78, P  = 0.348). The mortality rates of the two groups were both approximately 9.0% during the entire follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS The long-term prognosis of patients reclassified into group B and of those remaining in group B was similar, although patients reclassified from group D to group B had worse short-term outcomes. The GOLD 2017 revision could improve the assessment of Chinese COPD patients in terms of long-term prognosis.
Humans ; Prospective Studies ; East Asian People ; Disease Progression ; Severity of Illness Index ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology*

Background Hospitalizations for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations frequently occur in Thailand. National trends in hospital outcomes are essential for planning preventive strategies within the healthcare system. We examined temporal trends in in-hospital outcomes, including mortality rate, length of stay (LOS), and expenses for reimbursement in adults hospitalized for asthma and COPD exacerbations in southern Thailand.Methods A retrospective, population-based study on adults hospitalized for exacerbations of asthma and COPD was carried out using data from the National Health Security Office in southern Thailand. Baseline demographic and in-hospital outcome assessments were conducted on 19,459 and 66,457 hospitalizations for asthma and COPD, respectively, between 2017 and 2021.Results Significant reductions in hospital admissions for exacerbations of asthma and COPD were observed over time, particularly in 2020/2021. From 2017 to 2021, the in-hospital mortality rate for asthma rose from 3.2 to 3.7 deaths per 1,000 admissions (P<0.05). The rates for COPD admissions, on the other hand, reduced from 20.3 to 16.4 deaths per 1,000 admissions between 2017 and 2020, but subsequently increased to 21.8 in 2021 (P<0.05). The prominent contributor to the higher mortality rate was found to be increasing age. Nonetheless, the average LOS for both asthma and COPD decreased slightly over the study period. The total expenses for reimbursing exacerbations of asthma and COPD per hospitalisation have risen significantly each year, with a particularly notable increase in 2020/2021.Conclusion During 2017-2021, exacerbations of asthma and COPD in Thailand continued to account for significant in-hospital mortality rates and reimbursement expenses, despite the overall decrease in hospitalizations and slight fluctuations in the LOS.
Adult ; Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; Hospital Mortality ; Thailand/epidemiology* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive ; Asthma/epidemiology* ; Hospitals ; Disease Progression

Objective: To compare the incidence of radiation-related toxicities between conventional and hypofractionated intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for limited-stage small cell lung cancer (SCLC), and to explore the risk factors of hypofractionated radiotherapy-induced toxicities. Methods: Data were retrospectively collected from consecutive limited-stage SCLC patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy in Cancer Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from March 2016 to April 2022. The enrolled patients were divided into two groups according to radiation fractionated regimens. Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE, version 5.0) was used to evaluate the grade of radiation esophagus injuries and lung injuries. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with radiation-related toxicities in the hypofractionated radiotherapy group. Results: Among 211 enrolled patients, 108 cases underwent conventional IMRT and 103 patients received hypofractionated IMRT. The cumulative incidences of acute esophagitis grade ≥2 [38.9% (42/108) vs 35.0% (36/103), P=0.895] and grade ≥ 3 [1.9% (2/108) vs 5.8% (6/103), P=0.132] were similar between conventional and hypofractionated IMRT group. Late esophagus injuries grade ≥2 occurred in one patient in either group. No differences in the cumulative incidence of acute pneumonitis grade ≥2[12.0% (13/108) vs 5.8% (6/103), P=0.172] and late lung injuries grade ≥2[5.6% (6/108) vs 10.7% (11/103), P=0.277] were observed. There was no grade ≥3 lung injuries occurred in either group. Using multiple regression analysis, mean esophageal dose ≥13 Gy (OR=3.33, 95% CI: 1.23-9.01, P=0.018) and the overlapping volume between planning target volume (PTV) and esophageal ≥8 cm(3)(OR=3.99, 95% CI: 1.24-12.79, P=0.020) were identified as the independent risk factors associated with acute esophagitis grade ≥2 in the hypofractionated radiotherapy group. Acute pneumonitis grade ≥2 was correlated with presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, P=0.025). Late lung injuries grade ≥2 was correlated with tumor location(P=0.036). Conclusions: Hypofractionated IMRT are tolerated with manageable toxicities for limited-stage SCLC patients treated with IMRT. Mean esophageal dose and the overlapping volume between PTV and esophageal are independently predictive factors of acute esophagitis grade ≥2, and COPD and tumor location are valuable factors of lung injuries for limited-stage SCLC patients receiving hyofractionated radiotherapy. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.
Humans ; Small Cell Lung Carcinoma/pathology* ; Lung Neoplasms/pathology* ; Radiotherapy, Intensity-Modulated/methods* ; Retrospective Studies ; Lung Injury ; Radiotherapy Dosage ; Radiation Injuries/epidemiology* ; Esophagitis/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/complications*