1.Effects of Tripterygium wilfordii multiglycoside on renal injury in rats with diabetic nephropathy
Chong ZHANG ; Chundong SONG ; Mo WANG ; Shuang LIANG ; Xiaoxiao GUO ; Hanhan ZHANG ; Peijia LI ; Ke SONG ; Chenchen CHEN
China Pharmacy 2025;36(7):815-819
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of Tripterygium wilfordii multiglycoside (TWM) on renal injury in diabetic nephropathy (DN) rats through tumor protein p53/microRNA-214 (miR-214)/UNC-51-like kinase 1 (ULK1) axis. METHODS Male SD rats were randomly divided into normal group (n=6) and modeling group (n=28); the modeling group was fed with high fat and high glucose plus intraperitoneal injection of streptozotocin to establish DN model. The modeled rats were randomly divided into model group, valsartan group [8.33 mg/(kg·d)] and TWM group[6.25 mg/(kg·d)], with 8 rats in each group. Rats in each group were gavaged with the corresponding medication or normal saline, once a day, for 6 consecutive weeks. After the last medication, liver and renal function indexes [24 h urinary total protein (24 h-UTP), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (SCr), albumin (ALB), alanine transaminase (ALT)], blood lipid indexes (triglycerides, total cholesterol) and blood glucose index (fasting blood glucose) in urine/blood sample of rats were detected in each group. Renal pathologic change was observed, protein and mRNA expressions of p53, ULK1, Beclin-1 and microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3 (LC3), and expression of miR-214 in renal tissue were also determined. RESULTS Compared with the normal group, the renal tubular epithelium of rats in the model group showed obvious edema, cell swelling, accompanied by lymphocyte infiltration; the levels of 24h-UTP, BUN, SCr, ALT and glycolipid indexes, the expressions of p53 protein and mRNA, as well as the expression of miR-214 in rats in the model group and administration groups were significantly increased or up-regulated, while ALB level, LC3-Ⅱ/LC3-Ⅰ, the expressions of LC3 mRNA, the expressions of ULK1, Beclin-1 protein and mRNA were significantly decreased or down-regulated (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the histopathological damage of the kidney in rats was improved in administration groups; the levels of 24 h-UTP, BUN, SCr, ALT and glycolipid indexes, the expressions of p53 protein and mRNA, as well as the expression of miR-214 were all significantly decreased or down-regulated, while ALB level, LC3-Ⅱ/LC3-Ⅰ, the expressions of LC3 mRNA, the expressions of ULK1 and Beclin-1 protein and mRNA were significantly increased or up-regulated (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS TG can alleviate renal damage in DN rats, and improve their liver and renal function, as well as glucose and lipid levels. These effects may be related to the regulation of the p53/miR-214/ULK1 axis and the restoration of cellular autophagy.
2.Exploring Regulatory Effect of Kaixuan Jiedu Core Prescription on SPHK2/S1P/MCP-1 Pathway in Psoriasis-like Mouse Model Based on Sphingolipid Metabolism
Yeping QIN ; Wenhui LIU ; Dan DAI ; Jia XU ; Chong LI ; Bin YANG ; Ping SONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):60-68
ObjectiveTo explore the effects of Kaixuan Jiedu core prescription (KXJD) on sphingolipid metabolism in the mouse model of imiquimod-induced psoriasis-like skin lesions. MethodsThirty-seven male C57BL/6J mice were randomly assigned into five groups: healthy control (n=11), model (n=11), methotrexate (MTX, n=5), low-dose (15.21 g·kg-1) KXJD (n=5), and high-dose (30.42 g·kg-1) KXJD (n=5). Psoriasis-like skin lesions were induced in mice with 62.5 mg 5% imiquimod cream applied on the back. The KXJD groups and MTX group were treated with 0.2 mL corresponding decoction and MTX, respectively, by gavage daily, while the other groups were given an equal volume of normal saline by the same way. After 5 days of treatment, back skin lesions were collected. Firstly, healthy control and model mice were selected for tandem mass tag (TMT) quantitative proteomics (control vs model=3 vs 3) and targeted lipid metabolomics (control vs model=11 vs 11). Then, the binding degree between core components and target proteins was predicted via network pharmacology and molecular docking. Finally, an animal experiment was performed to decipher the specific regulation mechanism of KXJD on sphingolipid metabolism. Immunohistochemistry was employed to determine the expression level of sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), and Western blot was employed to determine the expression levels of sphingosine kinase 2 (SPHK2) and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1). ResultsTMT proteomics and targeted lipid metabolomics suggested that sphingolipid metabolism was active in the psoriatic skin, and key proteases [serine palmitoyltransferase, long chain base subunit 2 (SPTLC2), SPHK2, delta(4)-desaturase sphingolipid 1 (Degs1), and ceramide synthase 4 (CerS4)] and 8 sphingolipid metabolites (including ceramides, sphingol, sphingomyelin, and glycosphingolipid) expressed abnormally (P<0.05) compared with those in the healthy skin. The molecular docking results indicated that the binding energy between the active components (quercetin, kaempferol, and luteolin) in KXJD and key proteins involved in sphingolipid metabolism was less than-8 kal·mol-1. Further experimental verification showed elevated expression levels of SPHK2, S1P, and MCP-1 in psoriatic skin compared with healthy skin (P<0.05), and KXJD down-regulated the expression levels of SPHK2, S1P, and MCP-1 compared with the model group (P<0.05). ConclusionThis study indicates that there is an imbalance in sphingolipid metabolism in psoriatic skin lesions. KXJD may reduce psoriasis-like lesions in mice by regulating sphingolipid metabolism via the SPHK2/S1P/MCP-1 pathway.
3.Exploring Regulatory Effect of Kaixuan Jiedu Core Prescription on SPHK2/S1P/MCP-1 Pathway in Psoriasis-like Mouse Model Based on Sphingolipid Metabolism
Yeping QIN ; Wenhui LIU ; Dan DAI ; Jia XU ; Chong LI ; Bin YANG ; Ping SONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):60-68
ObjectiveTo explore the effects of Kaixuan Jiedu core prescription (KXJD) on sphingolipid metabolism in the mouse model of imiquimod-induced psoriasis-like skin lesions. MethodsThirty-seven male C57BL/6J mice were randomly assigned into five groups: healthy control (n=11), model (n=11), methotrexate (MTX, n=5), low-dose (15.21 g·kg-1) KXJD (n=5), and high-dose (30.42 g·kg-1) KXJD (n=5). Psoriasis-like skin lesions were induced in mice with 62.5 mg 5% imiquimod cream applied on the back. The KXJD groups and MTX group were treated with 0.2 mL corresponding decoction and MTX, respectively, by gavage daily, while the other groups were given an equal volume of normal saline by the same way. After 5 days of treatment, back skin lesions were collected. Firstly, healthy control and model mice were selected for tandem mass tag (TMT) quantitative proteomics (control vs model=3 vs 3) and targeted lipid metabolomics (control vs model=11 vs 11). Then, the binding degree between core components and target proteins was predicted via network pharmacology and molecular docking. Finally, an animal experiment was performed to decipher the specific regulation mechanism of KXJD on sphingolipid metabolism. Immunohistochemistry was employed to determine the expression level of sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), and Western blot was employed to determine the expression levels of sphingosine kinase 2 (SPHK2) and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1). ResultsTMT proteomics and targeted lipid metabolomics suggested that sphingolipid metabolism was active in the psoriatic skin, and key proteases [serine palmitoyltransferase, long chain base subunit 2 (SPTLC2), SPHK2, delta(4)-desaturase sphingolipid 1 (Degs1), and ceramide synthase 4 (CerS4)] and 8 sphingolipid metabolites (including ceramides, sphingol, sphingomyelin, and glycosphingolipid) expressed abnormally (P<0.05) compared with those in the healthy skin. The molecular docking results indicated that the binding energy between the active components (quercetin, kaempferol, and luteolin) in KXJD and key proteins involved in sphingolipid metabolism was less than-8 kal·mol-1. Further experimental verification showed elevated expression levels of SPHK2, S1P, and MCP-1 in psoriatic skin compared with healthy skin (P<0.05), and KXJD down-regulated the expression levels of SPHK2, S1P, and MCP-1 compared with the model group (P<0.05). ConclusionThis study indicates that there is an imbalance in sphingolipid metabolism in psoriatic skin lesions. KXJD may reduce psoriasis-like lesions in mice by regulating sphingolipid metabolism via the SPHK2/S1P/MCP-1 pathway.
4.Singapore consensus statements on the management of obstructive sleep apnoea.
Leong Chai LEOW ; Chuen Peng LEE ; Sridhar VENKATESWARAN ; Michael Teik Chung LIM ; Oon Hoe TEOH ; Ruth CHANG ; Yam Cheng CHEE ; Khai Beng CHONG ; Ai Ping CHUA ; Joshua GOOLEY ; Hong Juan HAN ; Nur Izzianie KAMARUDDIN ; See Meng KHOO ; Lynn Huiting KOH ; Shaun Ray Han LOH ; Kok Weng LYE ; Mark IGNATIUS ; Yingjuan MOK ; Jing Hao NG ; Thun How ONG ; Chu Qin PHUA ; Rui Ya SOH ; Pei Rong SONG ; Adeline TAN ; Alvin TAN ; Terry TAN ; Jenny TANG ; David TAY ; Jade TAY ; Song Tar TOH ; Serene WONG ; Chiang Yin WONG ; Mimi YOW
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore 2025;54(10):627-643
INTRODUCTION:
Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is common in Singapore, with moderate to severe OSA affecting around 30% of residents. These consensus statements aim to provide scientifically grounded recommendations for the management of OSA, standar-dise the management of OSA in Singapore and promote multidisciplinary collaboration.
METHOD:
An expert panel, which was convened in 2024, identified several areas of OSA management that require guidance. The expert panel reviewed the current literature and developed consensus statements, which were later independently voted on using a 3-point Likert scale (agree, neutral or disagree). Consensus (total ratings of agree and neutral) was set a priori at ≥80% agreement. Any statement not reaching consensus was excluded.
RESULTS:
The final consensus included 49 statements that provide guidance on the screening, diagnosis and management of adults with OSA. Additionally, 23 statements on the screening, diagnosis and management of paediatric OSA achieved consensus. These 72 consensus statements considered not only the latest clinical evidence but also the benefits and harms, resource implications, feasibility, acceptability and equity impact of the recommendations.
CONCLUSION
The statements presented in this paper aim to guide clinicians based on the most updated evidence and collective expert opinion from sleep specialists in Singapore. These recommendations should augment clinical judgement rather than replace it. Management decisions should be individualised, taking into account the patient's clinical characteristics, as well as patient and caregiver concerns and preferences.
Humans
;
Sleep Apnea, Obstructive/diagnosis*
;
Singapore
;
Consensus
;
Adult
5.Effect of Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Decoction on apoptosis in rats with heart failure after myocardial infarction through IκBα/NF-κB pathway.
Miao-Yu SONG ; Cui-Ling ZHU ; Yi-Zhuo LI ; Xing-Yuan LI ; Gang LIU ; Xiao-Hui LI ; Yan-Qin SUN ; Ming-Yuan DU ; Lei JIANG ; Chao-Chong YUE
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(8):2184-2192
This study aims to explore the protective effect of Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Decoction on rats with heart failure after myocardial infarction, and to clarify its possible mechanisms, providing a new basis for basic research on the mechanism of classic Chinese medicinal formula-mediated inflammatory response in preventing and treating heart failure induced by apoptosis after myocardial infarction. A heart failure model after myocardial infarction was established in rats by coronary artery ligation. The rats were divided into sham group, model group, and low, medium, and high-dose groups of Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Decoction, with 10 rats in each group. The low-dose, medium-dose, and high-dose groups of Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Decoction were given 6.3, 12.6, and 25.2 g·kg~(-1) doses by gavage, respectively. The sham group and model group were given an equal volume of distilled water by gavage once daily for four consecutive weeks. Cardiac function was assessed using color Doppler echocardiography. Myocardial pathology was detected by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining, apoptosis was measured by TUNEL assay, and mitophagy was observed by transmission electron microscopy. The levels of tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), interleukin(IL)-1β, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP) in serum were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). The expression of apoptosis-related proteins B-cell lymphoma 2(Bcl-2), Bcl-2-associated X protein(Bax), and cleaved caspase-3 was detected by Western blot. Additionally, the expression of phosphorylated nuclear transcription factor-κB(NF-κB) p65(p-NF-κB p65)(upstream) and nuclear factor kappa B inhibitor alpha(IκBα)(downstream) in the NF-κB signaling pathway was assessed by Western blot. The results showed that compared with the sham group, left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF) and left ventricular short axis shortening(LVFS) in the model group were significantly reduced, while left ventricular end diastolic diameter(LVEDD) and left ventricular end systolic diameter(LVESD) increased significantly. Myocardial tissue damage was severe, with widened intercellular spaces and disorganized cell arrangement. The apoptosis rate was increased, and mitochondria were enlarged with increased vacuoles. Levels of TNF-α, IL-1β, and NT-proBNP were elevated, indicating an obvious inflammatory response. The expression of pro-apoptotic factors Bax and cleaved caspase-3 increased, while the anti-apoptotic factor Bcl-2 decreased. The expression of p-NF-κB p65 was upregulated, and the expression of IκBα was downregulated. In contrast, the Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Decoction groups showed significantly improved of LVEF, LVFS and decreased LVEDD, LVESD compared to the model group. Myocardial tissue damage was alleviated, and intercellular spaces were reduced. The apoptosis rate decreased, mitochondrial volume decreased, and the levels of TNF-α, IL-1β, and NT-proBNP were lower. The expression of pro-apoptotic factors Bax and cleaved caspase-3 decreased, while the expression of the anti-apoptotic factor Bcl-2 increased. Additionally, the expression of p-NF-κB p65 decreased, while IκBα expression increased. In summary, this experimental study shows that Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Decoction can reduce the inflammatory response and apoptosis rate in rats with heart failure after myocardial infarction, which may be related to the regulation of the IκBα/NF-κB signaling pathway.
Animals
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Apoptosis/drug effects*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Rats
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Myocardial Infarction/physiopathology*
;
Male
;
NF-kappa B/genetics*
;
Heart Failure/etiology*
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
NF-KappaB Inhibitor alpha/genetics*
;
Humans
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Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha/genetics*
6.Short-term Effects of Fine Particulate Matter and its Constituents on Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Bronchitis: A Time-stratified Case-crossover Study.
Jing Wei ZHANG ; Jian ZHANG ; Peng Fei LI ; Yan Dan XU ; Xue Song ZHOU ; Xiu Li TANG ; Jia QIU ; Zhong Ao DING ; Ming Jia XU ; Chong Jian WANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(3):389-393
7.Clinical study on deciduous fused teeth and inherited permanent teeth.
Fenfang QIU ; Shan MENG ; Yangyang CHONG ; Xiaoli SONG
West China Journal of Stomatology 2025;43(1):92-97
OBJECTIVES:
This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics of deciduous fused teeth and their inherited permanent-tooth performance type by using panoramic radiographs.
METHODS:
A total of 14 404 panoramic radiographs of 3- to 6-year-old children with deciduous dentition were collected from January 2023 to July 2024. The incidence of deciduous fused teeth was observed, and the abnormality of permanent teeth was recorded. SPSS 24.0 software was used for statistical analysis.
RESULTS:
The incidence of deciduous fused teeth was 3.06% (441/14 404). The order of dental position was as follows: mandibular deciduous incisors and cusp teeth fused (58.18%) > mandibular deciduous central and lateral incisors fused (30.91%) > maxillary deciduous central and lateral incisors fused (8.89%) > deciduous incisors and supernumerary teeth fused (2.02%). Deciduous fused teeth were found in 226 boys and 215 girls, with no significant difference between the sexes (P>0.05). We observed one pair (87.76%, 387/441) and two pairs (12.24%, 54/441) of fused teeth (54/441), respectively. A total of 287 pairs of fusion teeth on the right side more than 208 pairs on the left side, and the difference between them was statistically significant (P<0.01). More fusion teeth existed in mandibular deciduous teeth (443 pairs) than in maxillary ones (54 pairs), and the difference between them was statistically significant (P<0.01). More unilateral deciduous teeth (387 subjects) were found than bilateral ones (54 subjects), and the difference between them was statistically significant (P<0.01). Three types of deciduous fused teeth with inherited permanent teeth were observed as follows: 1) 49.49% (245/495) of inherited permanent teeth was absent, 2) 46.67% (231/495) of inherited permanent teeth was not absent, and 3) the number of fused permanent teeth accounted for 3.84% (19/495).
CONCLUSIONS
The incidence of deciduous fused teeth was 3.06%, mostly occurring in the lower anterior teeth region, with no gender difference. One pair of fused teeth is commonly observed, more often on the right than the left. These fusions occur more frequently in the mandible than the maxillary, and unilateral cases are more common than bilateral ones. Deciduous fused teeth had a certain impact on inherited permanent teeth. Pediatric dentists should pay attention to and closely observe whether any abnormality exists in the permanent dentition for early detection to prevent the harm caused by deciduous fused teeth.
Humans
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Tooth, Deciduous/abnormalities*
;
Male
;
Child
;
Female
;
Child, Preschool
;
Dentition, Permanent
;
Radiography, Panoramic
;
Fused Teeth/diagnostic imaging*
;
Incisor/diagnostic imaging*
;
Tooth, Supernumerary/diagnostic imaging*
;
Incidence
;
Mandible
8.Exploration and validation of optimal cut-off values for tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening of prostate cancer at different ages
Xiaomin LIU ; Hongyuan DUAN ; Dongqi ZHANG ; Chong CHEN ; Yuting JI ; Yunmeng ZHANG ; Zhuowei FENG ; Ya LIU ; Jingjing LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Chenyang LI ; Yacong ZHANG ; Lei YANG ; Zhangyan LYU ; Fangfang SONG ; Fengju SONG ; Yubei HUANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(4):354-364
Objective:To determine the total and age-specific cut-off values of total prostate specific antigen (tPSA) and the ratio of free PSA divided total PSA (fPSA/tPSA) for screening prostate cancer in China.Methods:Based on the Chinese Colorectal, Breast, Lung, Liver, and Stomach cancer Screening Trial (C-BLAST) and the Tianjin Common Cancer Case Cohort (TJ4C), males who were not diagnosed with any cancers at baseline since 2017 and received both tPSA and fPSA testes were selected. Based on Cox regression, the overall and age-specific (<60, 60-<70, and ≥70 years) accuracy and optimal cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA ratio for screening prostate cancer were evaluated with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tdROC) and area under curve (AUC). Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the stability of the optimal cut-off value, and the PLCO study was used to externally validate the accuracy under different cut-off values.Results:A total of 5 180 participants were included in the study, and after a median follow-up of 1.48 years, a total of 332 prostate cancer patients were included. In the total population, the tdAUC of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening for prostate cancer were 0.852 and 0.748, respectively, with the optimal cut-off values of 5.08 ng/ml and 0.173, respectively. After age stratification, the age specific cut-off values of tPSA in the <60, 60-<70, and ≥70 age groups were 3.13, 4.82, and 11.54 ng/ml, respectively, while the age-specific cut-off values of fPSA/tPSA were 0.153, 0.135, and 0.130, respectively. Under the age-specific cut-off values, the sensitivities of tPSA screening for prostate cancer in males <60, 60-70, and ≥70 years old were 92.3%, 82.0%, and 77.6%, respectively, while the specificities were 84.7%, 81.3%, and 75.4%, respectively. The age-specific sensitivities of fPSA/tPSA for screening prostate cancer were 74.4%, 53.3%, and 55.9%, respectively, while the specificities were 83.8%, 83.7%, and 83.7%, respectively. Both bootstrap's internal validation and PLCO external validation provided similar results. The combination of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA could further improve the accuracy of screening.Conclusion:To improve the screening effects, it is recommended that age-specific cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA should be used to screen for prostate cancer in the general risk population.
9.Exploration and validation of optimal cut-off values for tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening of prostate cancer at different ages
Xiaomin LIU ; Hongyuan DUAN ; Dongqi ZHANG ; Chong CHEN ; Yuting JI ; Yunmeng ZHANG ; Zhuowei FENG ; Ya LIU ; Jingjing LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Chenyang LI ; Yacong ZHANG ; Lei YANG ; Zhangyan LYU ; Fangfang SONG ; Fengju SONG ; Yubei HUANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(4):354-364
Objective:To determine the total and age-specific cut-off values of total prostate specific antigen (tPSA) and the ratio of free PSA divided total PSA (fPSA/tPSA) for screening prostate cancer in China.Methods:Based on the Chinese Colorectal, Breast, Lung, Liver, and Stomach cancer Screening Trial (C-BLAST) and the Tianjin Common Cancer Case Cohort (TJ4C), males who were not diagnosed with any cancers at baseline since 2017 and received both tPSA and fPSA testes were selected. Based on Cox regression, the overall and age-specific (<60, 60-<70, and ≥70 years) accuracy and optimal cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA ratio for screening prostate cancer were evaluated with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tdROC) and area under curve (AUC). Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the stability of the optimal cut-off value, and the PLCO study was used to externally validate the accuracy under different cut-off values.Results:A total of 5 180 participants were included in the study, and after a median follow-up of 1.48 years, a total of 332 prostate cancer patients were included. In the total population, the tdAUC of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening for prostate cancer were 0.852 and 0.748, respectively, with the optimal cut-off values of 5.08 ng/ml and 0.173, respectively. After age stratification, the age specific cut-off values of tPSA in the <60, 60-<70, and ≥70 age groups were 3.13, 4.82, and 11.54 ng/ml, respectively, while the age-specific cut-off values of fPSA/tPSA were 0.153, 0.135, and 0.130, respectively. Under the age-specific cut-off values, the sensitivities of tPSA screening for prostate cancer in males <60, 60-70, and ≥70 years old were 92.3%, 82.0%, and 77.6%, respectively, while the specificities were 84.7%, 81.3%, and 75.4%, respectively. The age-specific sensitivities of fPSA/tPSA for screening prostate cancer were 74.4%, 53.3%, and 55.9%, respectively, while the specificities were 83.8%, 83.7%, and 83.7%, respectively. Both bootstrap's internal validation and PLCO external validation provided similar results. The combination of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA could further improve the accuracy of screening.Conclusion:To improve the screening effects, it is recommended that age-specific cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA should be used to screen for prostate cancer in the general risk population.
10.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.

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