1.Disease burden and changing trend in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021
Shoucai HU ; Chenglong YANG ; Lingling ZHANG ; Fu LI ; Yanan ZHANG ; Bin LIU ; Qingxin LI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(01):97-104
Objective To systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and epidemiological trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) disease burden attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021, and to assess the patterns of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031 based on predictive models, providing a scientific basis for formulating targeted TBL prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed the disease burden data of TBL attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021. R Studio 4.3.2 software was used to analyze the corresponding trends and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model was used to predict the status of the disease burden of TBL attributed to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States from 2022 to 2031. Results In 2021, China had the highest number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to air pollution (211 400 patients and 4.8947 million person-years), followed by the United States (6 000 patients and 124 300 person-years). The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of TBL due to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States showed a decreasing trend. From 1990 to 2021, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL in China due to air pollution were much higher than those in the United States and the global average. In terms of gender, from 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of male patients with TBL attributed to air pollution was much higher than that of female patients. The BAPC prediction model showed that from 2022 to 2031, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL attributed to air pollution showed an upward trend globally, while they showed a downward trend in China and the United States. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the air pollution-related TBL disease burden in the world and in China and the United States has continued to decline, but China's disease burden is still significantly higher than the global average. The disease burden in men far exceeds that in women, with men and the population aged ≥50 years being high-risk groups. In the future, the global disease trend may reverse and rise, while China and the United States are expected to continuously decline. However, precise prevention and control for high-risk groups remains a key challenge.
2.Trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 and a gender comparison analysis
Shoucai HU ; Chenglong YANG ; Haotian MA ; Yancheng TAO ; Gawei HU ; Qingxin LI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(04):500-507
Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019, along with the differences between genders, and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The gray prediction model [GM (1, 1) ] was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029. Results In 2019, the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths. From a gender perspective, in 2019, the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females, respectively. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females, respectively, indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were –0.92% and –1.23%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The population aged ≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019. The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029, the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2.94/100 000and 67.94/100 000, with a greater decline in females than in males. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China has slightly decreased. However, the reduction in disease burden is still lower compared to the overall decline in esophageal cancer burden, and the disease burden for males is significantly higher than for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly population remains a major issue in addressing alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China.
3.Analysis of the efficacy of prone position ventilation combined with veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in the treatment of severe primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation
Dapeng WANG ; Chenglong LIANG ; Jinsong ZHU ; Tao ZHOU ; Zhongping XU ; Chunxiao HU ; Hongyang XU
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(6):898-906
Objective To explore the application effect of prone position ventilation combined with veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) in the treatment of severe primary graft dysfunction (PGD) after lung transplantation. Methods The clinical data of 75 lung transplant recipients who developed severe PGD after lung transplantation and were treated with VV-ECMO from January 2021 to June 2024 at Wuxi People's Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University were collected. The patients with severe graft dysfunction after lung transplantation were divided into VV-ECMO group (control group, 45 cases) and prone position ventilation combined with VV-ECMO group (treatment group, 30 cases). The general data of the two groups of patients were compared, including the donors' clinical data (age, gender and oxygenation index, etc) and the recipients' clinical data [gender, age and body mass index (BMI), etc]. Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of the recipients' 30-day, 90-day and 180-day survival after surgery. The survival curves of the two groups of recipients were drawn using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Results The intensive care unit (ICU) stay time, ECMO application time and ventilator use time of control group were longer than those of treatment group. The proportion of male recipients and the BMI of control group were lower than those of treatment group. The 30-day, 90-day and 180-day survival of control group was worse than that of treatment group, and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The univariate Cox regression analysis of the recipients' 30-day survival after surgery showed that the recipients' BMI, history of diabetes, enlargement of the right atrium and right ventricle, intraoperative blood transfusion volume and intraoperative red blood cell transfusion volume were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the history of diabetes and enlargement of the right atrium and right ventricle were risk factors affecting the 30-day survival of lung transplant recipients (all P<0.05). The univariate Cox regression analysis of the recipients' 90-day survival after surgery showed that the recipients' BMI, history of diabetes, enlargement of the right atrium and right ventricle, intraoperative blood transfusion volume, intraoperative red blood cell transfusion volume and group variable were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the history of diabetes, enlargement of the right atrium and right ventricle and group variable were risk factors affecting the 90-day survival of lung transplant recipients (all P<0.05). The univariate Cox regression analysis of the recipients' 180-day survival after surgery showed that the recipients' BMI, history of diabetes, right atrium and right ventricle enlargement, intraoperative blood transfusion volume, intraoperative red blood cell transfusion volume and group variable were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the history of diabetes, enlargement of the right atrium and right ventricle and group variable were risk factors affecting the 180-day survival of lung transplant recipients (all P<0.05). The 30-day, 90-day and 180-day survival rates of control group were lower, and the differences between the two groups were statistically significant (all P<0.05), with a median survival time of 100 days in control group. Conclusions In the clinical treatment of severe PGD after lung transplantation, prone position ventilation combined with VV-ECMO may shorten ECMO application time, invasive ventilation time and ICU stay time, and improve the short-term prognosis of lung transplantation.
4.Study on the staging of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome before onset and its impact on prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction
Dewei WU ; Mengjin HU ; Xiuling WANG ; Chenglong GUO ; Xuexue HAN ; Tianxing ZHANG ; Jinggang XIA
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine 2025;48(3):209-214
Objective:To investigate the staging of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome before onset, and to analyze its impact on short-term prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).Methods:The clinical data of 2 993 patients with AMI from January 2017 to December 2023 in Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. The basic information, baseline data, in-hospital data, cardiac-related examination results, CKM syndrome staging and in-hospital outcomes were recorded.Results:Among the 2 993 patients with AMI, the CKM syndrome stage 0 was in 23 cases (0.77%), stage 1 in 35 cases (1.17%), stage 2 in 2 015 cases (67.32%), stage 3 to 4 in 920 cases (30.74%). The male proportion, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 and 1 were significantly higher than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 2 and 3 to 4, the hypertension proportion, diabetes proportion, chronic kidney disease proportion, triglyceride (TG), glycated hemoglobin (HbA 1c) and creatinine were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome 2 stage 3 to 4, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the body mass index (BMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) proportion in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 1, 2 and 3 to 4, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the cerebrovascular diseases proportion, Killip stage ≥3 proportion, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and left main coronary artery lesions proportion in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0, 1 and 2 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 3 to 4, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the global registry of acute coronary events score (GRACE score) in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 was significantly lower than that in patients with CKM syndrome stage 3 to 4, and there was statistical difference ( P<0.05). Although there were statistical differences in low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) and number of blood vessels involved among the four groups ( P<0.05), but pairwise comparisons showed no statistically significant differences ( P>0.05). There were no statistical differences in age, smoking history, hyperlipidemia, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, uric acid, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) peak, left ventricular ejection fraction and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter among the four groups ( P>0.05). The incidence of in-hospital major adverse coronary events (MACE) was 10.76% (322/2 993). Among them, the incidence of MACE, all-cause mortality and longer length of stay in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0, 1 and 2 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 3 to 4: 4.35% (1/23), 8.57% (3/35) and 8.59% (173/2 015) vs. 15.76% (145/920), 0, 2.86% (1/35) and 2.38% (48/2 015) vs. 4.78% (44/920), (8.17 ± 3.87), (8.15 ± 5.32) and (8.89 ± 6.42) d vs. (9.81 ± 9.29) d, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the incidences of acute kidney injury and atrial fibrillation in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 and 1 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 2 and 3 to 4: 8.70% (2/23) and 8.57% (3/35) vs. 24.17% (487/2 015) and 34.35% (316/920), 0 and 0 vs. 3.52% (71/2 015) and 10.00% (92/920), and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); there were no statistical differences in the incidences of ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation, cardiac arrest, mechanical complications and mechanical circulatory support among the four groups ( P>0.05). Conclusions:The severity of CKM syndrome is closely related to the occurrence of AMI. CKM patients with higher CKM stages have more severe AMI and poorer in-hospital prognosis. CKM syndrome staging can serve as a potential prognostic indicator for AMI patients.
5.Influence of low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation combined with brain-computer interface rehabilitation robot on stroke patients with upper limb motor dysfunction
Tingting ZHEN ; Shunting HU ; Zheng WANG ; Mi XU ; Chenglong RUAN
Tianjin Medical Journal 2025;53(9):957-962
Objective To explore the influence of low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation(rTMS)combined with brain-computer interface rehabilitation robot in patients with upper limb motor dysfunction after stroke.Methods A total of 126 patients with upper limb motor dysfunction after stroke were divided into the combined group(61 cases,low-frequency rTMS combined with brain-computer interface rehabilitation robot on the basis of routine rehabilitation treatment)and the magnetic stimulation group(65 cases,low-frequency rTMS on the basis of routine rehabilitation treatment)according to different treatment methods,and both groups were continuously treated for 3 weeks.The upper limb motor function[upper-extremity Fugl-Meyer scale(UFMA),action research arm test(ARAT)],hand Brunnstrom staging,upper limb surface electromyography indicators[root mean square(RMS)and integrated electromyography(iEMG)of biceps brachii,triceps brachii,deltoid anterior bundle and deltoid middle bundle],cerebral artery hemodynamics[systolic blood flow velocity(Vs),resistance index(RI),mean blood flow velocity(Vm)]and ratio of fractional anisotropy(FA)of central region of brain lesion and FA of mirror-image region of healthy cerebral hemisphere(rFA)were observed before and after treatment in the two groups.Results Compared with the magnetic stimulation group,the UFMA score,ARAT score,hand Brunnstrom staging,Vs,Vm and rFA were higher after treatment in the combined group(P<0.05).The RMS and iEMG of biceps brachii,triceps brachii,deltoid anterior bundle and deltoid middle bundle were higher in the combined group compared with those of the magnetic stimulation group(P<0.05),while the RI was lower(P<0.05).Conclusion Combined treatment can more effectively improve the upper limb motor function of patients,enhance hand activity ability,promote the recovery of upper limb muscle and nerve function,and regulate the hemodynamics of cerebral arteries.
6.Study on the staging of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome before onset and its impact on prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction
Dewei WU ; Mengjin HU ; Xiuling WANG ; Chenglong GUO ; Xuexue HAN ; Tianxing ZHANG ; Jinggang XIA
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine 2025;48(3):209-214
Objective:To investigate the staging of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome before onset, and to analyze its impact on short-term prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).Methods:The clinical data of 2 993 patients with AMI from January 2017 to December 2023 in Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. The basic information, baseline data, in-hospital data, cardiac-related examination results, CKM syndrome staging and in-hospital outcomes were recorded.Results:Among the 2 993 patients with AMI, the CKM syndrome stage 0 was in 23 cases (0.77%), stage 1 in 35 cases (1.17%), stage 2 in 2 015 cases (67.32%), stage 3 to 4 in 920 cases (30.74%). The male proportion, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 and 1 were significantly higher than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 2 and 3 to 4, the hypertension proportion, diabetes proportion, chronic kidney disease proportion, triglyceride (TG), glycated hemoglobin (HbA 1c) and creatinine were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome 2 stage 3 to 4, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the body mass index (BMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) proportion in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 1, 2 and 3 to 4, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the cerebrovascular diseases proportion, Killip stage ≥3 proportion, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and left main coronary artery lesions proportion in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0, 1 and 2 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 3 to 4, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the global registry of acute coronary events score (GRACE score) in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 was significantly lower than that in patients with CKM syndrome stage 3 to 4, and there was statistical difference ( P<0.05). Although there were statistical differences in low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) and number of blood vessels involved among the four groups ( P<0.05), but pairwise comparisons showed no statistically significant differences ( P>0.05). There were no statistical differences in age, smoking history, hyperlipidemia, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, uric acid, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) peak, left ventricular ejection fraction and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter among the four groups ( P>0.05). The incidence of in-hospital major adverse coronary events (MACE) was 10.76% (322/2 993). Among them, the incidence of MACE, all-cause mortality and longer length of stay in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0, 1 and 2 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 3 to 4: 4.35% (1/23), 8.57% (3/35) and 8.59% (173/2 015) vs. 15.76% (145/920), 0, 2.86% (1/35) and 2.38% (48/2 015) vs. 4.78% (44/920), (8.17 ± 3.87), (8.15 ± 5.32) and (8.89 ± 6.42) d vs. (9.81 ± 9.29) d, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the incidences of acute kidney injury and atrial fibrillation in patients with CKM syndrome stage 0 and 1 were significantly lower than those in patients with CKM syndrome stage 2 and 3 to 4: 8.70% (2/23) and 8.57% (3/35) vs. 24.17% (487/2 015) and 34.35% (316/920), 0 and 0 vs. 3.52% (71/2 015) and 10.00% (92/920), and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); there were no statistical differences in the incidences of ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation, cardiac arrest, mechanical complications and mechanical circulatory support among the four groups ( P>0.05). Conclusions:The severity of CKM syndrome is closely related to the occurrence of AMI. CKM patients with higher CKM stages have more severe AMI and poorer in-hospital prognosis. CKM syndrome staging can serve as a potential prognostic indicator for AMI patients.
7.Influence of low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation combined with brain-computer interface rehabilitation robot on stroke patients with upper limb motor dysfunction
Tingting ZHEN ; Shunting HU ; Zheng WANG ; Mi XU ; Chenglong RUAN
Tianjin Medical Journal 2025;53(9):957-962
Objective To explore the influence of low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation(rTMS)combined with brain-computer interface rehabilitation robot in patients with upper limb motor dysfunction after stroke.Methods A total of 126 patients with upper limb motor dysfunction after stroke were divided into the combined group(61 cases,low-frequency rTMS combined with brain-computer interface rehabilitation robot on the basis of routine rehabilitation treatment)and the magnetic stimulation group(65 cases,low-frequency rTMS on the basis of routine rehabilitation treatment)according to different treatment methods,and both groups were continuously treated for 3 weeks.The upper limb motor function[upper-extremity Fugl-Meyer scale(UFMA),action research arm test(ARAT)],hand Brunnstrom staging,upper limb surface electromyography indicators[root mean square(RMS)and integrated electromyography(iEMG)of biceps brachii,triceps brachii,deltoid anterior bundle and deltoid middle bundle],cerebral artery hemodynamics[systolic blood flow velocity(Vs),resistance index(RI),mean blood flow velocity(Vm)]and ratio of fractional anisotropy(FA)of central region of brain lesion and FA of mirror-image region of healthy cerebral hemisphere(rFA)were observed before and after treatment in the two groups.Results Compared with the magnetic stimulation group,the UFMA score,ARAT score,hand Brunnstrom staging,Vs,Vm and rFA were higher after treatment in the combined group(P<0.05).The RMS and iEMG of biceps brachii,triceps brachii,deltoid anterior bundle and deltoid middle bundle were higher in the combined group compared with those of the magnetic stimulation group(P<0.05),while the RI was lower(P<0.05).Conclusion Combined treatment can more effectively improve the upper limb motor function of patients,enhance hand activity ability,promote the recovery of upper limb muscle and nerve function,and regulate the hemodynamics of cerebral arteries.
8.Clinical and CT radiomics features for predicting microsatellite instability-high status of gastric cancer
Pengchao ZHAN ; Liming LI ; Dongbo LYU ; Chenglong LUO ; Zhiwei HU ; Pan LIANG ; Jianbo GAO
Chinese Journal of Medical Imaging Technology 2024;40(1):77-82
Objective To observe the value of clinical and CT radiomics features for predicting microsatellite instability-high(MSI-H)status of gastric cancer.Methods Totally 150 gastric cancer patients including 30 cases of MSI-H positive and 120 cases of MSI-H negative were enrolled and divided into training set(n=105)or validation set(n=45)at the ratio of 7∶3.Based on abdominal vein phase enhanced CT images,lesions radiomics features were extracted and screened,and radiomics scores(Radscore)was calculated.Clinical data and Radscores were compared between MSI-H positive and negative patients in training set and validation set.Based on clinical factors and Radscores being significant different between MSI-H positive and negative ones,clinical model,CT radiomics model and clinical-CT radiomics combination model were constructed,and their predictive value for MSI-H status of gastric cancer were observed.Results Significant differences of tumor location and Radscore were found between MSI-H positive and negative patients in both training and validation sets(all P<0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of clinical model,CT radiomics model and combination model for evaluating MSI-H status of gastric cancer in training set was 0.760,0.799 and 0.864,respectively,of that in validation set was 0.735,0.812 and 0.849,respectively.AUC of clinical-CT radiomics combination model was greater than that of the other 2 single models(all P<0.05).Conclusion Clinical-CT radiomics combination model based on tumor location and Radscore could effectively predict MSI-H status of gastric cancer.
9.Sequence analysis of whole genome of influenza A(H3N2) virus in Huai′an
Pengfei YANG ; Fang HE ; Wanli YIN ; Tong GAO ; Wang ZHANG ; Mingyue WEI ; Chenglong XIONG ; Wei HU
Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology 2024;38(2):156-161
Objective:To study the biological traits and mutations of the influenza A (H3N2) virus in order to produce a vaccine and offer references for controlling and preventing influenza epidemics.Methods:Four strains of the influenza A(H3N2) virus were chosen from the Huai′an surveillance network laboratory. Nucleic acid extraction, library building, and sequencing (CridION x5 MKI Nanopore) were used to produce the whole-genome sequences. Using homologous alignments of whole-genome sequences, phylogenetic tree construction, and amino acid variant screening, bioinformatics analysis was carried out.Results:The nucleotide identity between 8 gene segments ranged from 97.1% to 100.0%. The gene that differed the most from the reference sequences was HA (97.1%-99.9%), and the gene that differed the least was MP (98.6%-99.9%). The HA gene (3.06%) and MP gene (1.43%) were the regions with the greatest and lowest frequencies of nucleotide site change, respectively. The rates of nucleotide change varied significantly between the genes ( χ2=14.293, P=0.046). Four influenza A(H3N2) virus strains′ whole-genome phylogenies from each of the eight gene segments maintained a roughly consistent topological structure. One strain was linked to the 3C.2a1b.1b clade, which was lost at the 142NWT, 149NGT(HA1), and 436NLS(NA). Three strains were linked to the 3C.2a1b.2a.1a clade lineage. Amantadine and NA inhibitors were effective against all Huai′an strains. Conclusions:The antigenicity of one strain of Huai'an strain changed and its matching with the vaccine strain of that year was low. It is suggested that the genetic surveillance of H3N2 influenza virus should be continuously strengthened to provide scientific basis for influenza prevention and control and influenza vaccine screening.
10.Disease Burden and Changing Trend of Non-rheumatic Valvular Heart Disease From 1990 to 2019 in China
Shoucai HU ; Yancheng TAO ; Haotian MA ; Chenglong YANG ; Guohui ZHAO ; Yipeng JIANG ; Gawei HU ; Qingxin LI
Chinese Circulation Journal 2024;39(8):806-812
Objectives:To analyze the disease burden and changing trends of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease(NRVHD)from 1990 to 2019 in China. Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database,we collected data related to NRVHD in China from 1990 to 2019,analyzed the crude incidence rate,crude prevalence rate,crude disability-adjusted life year(DALY),and age-scaled rate of NRVHD during this period,and analyzed the corresponding trends.The grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict the disease burden of NRVHD in China from 2020 to 2029. Results:The crude incidence,crude prevalence,and crude DALY rates of NRVHD increased in China from 7.87/100 000,123.21/100 000,and 9.83/100 000 in 1990 to 22.85/100 000,374.16/100 000,and 11.95/100 000 in 2019;the age-standardized incidence rate and the age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 9.22/100 000 and 169.04/100 000 in 1990 to 15.30/100000 and 262.85/100 000 in 2019 respectively,with females being higher than males;the age-standardized DALY rate declined from 13.43/100 000 in 1990 to 9.07/100 000 in 2019,with females being higher than males.Joinpoint regression model analysis showed an increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate,and a decreasing trend in the age-standardized DALY rate(annual average percentage change[AAPC]values of 1.86%,1.72%and-1.66%,respectively),trend of change was statistically significant(all P<0.05).The burden of disease for all age groups from 1990 to 2019 showed an overall increasing trend,and the crude incidence rate,crude prevalence rate and crude DALY rate all increased with age,and the elderly group over 60 years old was the main group of disease burden.The results of the grey prediction model showed that by 2029,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate would increase to 18.51/100 000 and 303.26/100 000,respectively,and the age-standardized DALY rate would decrease to 7.42/100 000. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of NRVHD in China showed an increasing trend,and the age-standardized DALY rate all showed a decreasing trend.The disease burden of NRVHD in China remains high.Women and the senior population are the main target groups needing special attention in China,and more targeted prevention and treatment strategies are needed for high-risk population.

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