1.Research Tackling Paradigm and Technological Layout Strategies Based on Erectile Dysfunction, A Clinical Dominant Disease of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Qi ZHAO ; Yun CHEN ; Baoxing LIU ; Xuejun SHANG ; Fei SUN ; Xiaozhi ZHAO ; Zhigang WU ; Chao SUN ; Peihai ZHANG ; Wanjun CHENG ; Xing ZHOU ; Zhan QIN ; Yufeng PAN ; Weiwei TAO ; Jianhuai CHEN ; Mei MO ; Xiaoxiao ZHANG ; Xing ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):291-299
To thoroughly implement the strategic deployment outlined in the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the Inheritance and Innovative Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine regarding research on dominant diseases of traditional Chinese medicine and to uphold the development philosophy of equal emphasis on traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine,the China Association of Chinese Medicine has fully played a leading academic role by systematically organizing and conducting a series of academic youth salons on clinical dominant diseases of traditional Chinese medicine. On September 13,2024,the 36th Youth Salon on Clinical Dominant Diseases was successfully held in Nanjing,focusing on the advantages of traditional Chinese medicine and the integrative traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED). The conference brought together leading experts from traditional Chinese medicine,western medicine,and interdisciplinary fields,facilitating in-depth multidisciplinary discussions that led to key consensus on optimizing traditional Chinese medicine treatment protocols for ED,researching and developing new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine,and advancing interdisciplinary development in traditional Chinese medicine. This salon systematically sorted out the clinical strengths and distinctive features of traditional Chinese medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of ED. Based on current research foundations and clinical needs,it identified key directions for future scientific layout and scientific research tackling: (1) Standardization of syndrome differentiation system of traditional Chinese medicine for ED. (2) Optimization and standardization of intervention methods of integrated traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine. (3) High-quality clinical research guided by evidence-based medicine. (4) In-depth analysis of the pharmacological mechanisms of traditional Chinese medicine in the treatment of ED. (5) Clinical translation and application promotion of new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine. (6) Interdisciplinary integration and innovation in traditional Chinese medicine. For each research direction,key focus areas,expected objectives,and clinical value were further refined,along with the establishment of a scientifically sound priority funding level evaluation system. Therefore,building on the series of salons on the ED-focused dominant diseases of traditional Chinese medicine,this paper provides standardized guidance for clinical practice of traditional Chinese medicine in ED management,effectively contributing to the high-quality development of traditional Chinese medicine. It serves as a valuable reference for national scientific and technological strategic layout, research and development decision-making in new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine,research topic planning,and clinical guideline formulation.
2.Mechanistic Interpretation of Zheng’s San Qi San Powder in Treating Skeletal Muscle Injury via Bioinformatics Prediction, Chemical Analysis and Experimental Verification
Ding-Rui WANG ; Yun-Xin LIU ; Jun-Jie XU ; Liu YANG ; Jia-Hao LÜ ; Cheng-Yuan XING ; Lei LÜ ; Bei-Bei QIE
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(4):1028-1047
ObjectiveZheng’s San Qi San (ZSQS) power, a classic traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula, is used for treating soft tissue injuries involving muscles, tendons, and ligaments. However, its underlying therapeutic mechanisms remain unclear. This study aimed to screen and identify pharmaceutically active ingredients and their candidate biomolecule targets, and further elucidate the molecular mechanism of ZSQS in the treatment of skeletal muscle injury. MethodsNetwork pharmacology was employed to construct “ZSQS-component-target”, “protein-protein interaction (PPI)” and “active ingredient-core protein-pathway” networks to predict the key active ingredients and potential core targets of ZSQS for skeletal muscle injury. The predicted results were then validated via microarray data from the GEO database. Molecular docking was then performed to assess the binding ability between the screened active ingredients of ZSQS and the candidate core targets. Moreover, liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) was used for qualitative and quantitative analysis to verify the active components of the drug and ZSQS serum. Finally, an animal model of eccentric exercise-induced skeletal muscle injury and a myotube cell model of oxidative stress-induced injury were established to validate the effects of ZSQS and its interventional effects on the biological functions of critical targets, thereby demonstrating the potential therapeutic mechanism of ZSQS. ResultsAmong the 111 active components identified in ZSQS and their corresponding 204 targets related to the skeletal muscle injury repair process, 14 core targets (including AKT1) and 4 core active components (quercetin, luteolin, kaempferol, and β‑sitosterol) were screened out, while the corresponding metabolites of quercetin, luteolin and kaempferol were detected in the ZSQS serum. Among these targets, 5 candidate genes (IL-6, CASP3, HIF1A, STAT3, and JUN) overlapped with the differential expression screening results with GEO data, and IL-6 was confirmed to be enriched in the PI3K/AKT pathway. Combined with the prediction results of the AKT expression levels, these findings suggest that the phosphorylation level of AKT1 plays a core role in the therapeutic mechanism of ZSQS. Molecular docking analysis further revealed that the PH domain of AKT1 had high binding energy with all 4 core active components, as verified by LC-MS. Finally, animal model studies have shown the promoting effect of ZSQS administration on skeletal muscle injury repair and its possible antioxidant damage mechanism. Cell model studies further demonstrated that ZSQS-containing serum, core active ingredient combination therapy, and quercetin monomer could increase the phosphorylation level of AKT, promote the nuclear translocation of Nrf2, upregulate the expression of downstream antioxidant enzymes (SOD, GPx, and GR), and inhibit the expression of inflammatory factors (IL-6 and TNF-α), thereby alleviating oxidative stress and the inflammatory response. ConclusionZSQS alleviates skeletal muscle injury mainly by activating the AKT/Nrf2 signaling pathway, enhancing cellular antioxidant and anti-inflammatory capabilities. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the clinical application and modernized development of ZSQS.
3.Two novel rare variants in the PTH gene found in patients with hypoparathyroidism
Yue JIANG ; An SONG ; Jiajia WANG ; Xinqi CHENG ; Jing YANG ; Yan JIANG ; Mei LI ; Weibo XIA ; Xiaoping XING ; Min NIE ; Ou WANG
Osteoporosis and Sarcopenia 2025;11(1):22-28
Objectives:
Hypoparathyroidism (HP) is a rare endocrine disorder caused by parathyroid hormone (PTH) defi ciency. The PTH is a candidate gene for familial isolated hypoparathyroidism (FIH). This study aimed to investigate the pathogenicity of two novel rare variants (RVs) ofPTH through in vitro functional study.
Methods:
Targeted next-generation sequencing was used to identify candidate gene mutations. Clinical data were retrospectively collected. Wild-type (WT) PTH was used as a template for site-directed mutagenesis to create mutant eukaryotic expression plasmids, which were transfected into cells. Treated with or without 4-phenylbu tyric acid (4-PBA), the levels of intact PTH (iPTH) and PTH (1-84) were measured by chemiluminescence, and protein expression was assessed using Western blotting.
Results:
Two patients carrying PTH mutations (c.154G > A: p.Val52Ile, c.270G > T: p.Leu90Phe) were identified.Patient 1, a 45-year-old male, presented with carpal and pedal numbness, muscle cramps, and low serum calcium (1.29 mmol/L). Patient 2, a 12-year-old female, had muscle twitches, convulsions, low calcium (1.50 mmol/L), and iPTH of 4 pg/mL. The iPTH or PTH (1-84) levels in the medium transfected with mutant Val52Ile and Leu90Phe PTH decreased by 31%–38%, and 51%–96% compared to WT (allP < 0.05), which were not rescued by 4-PBA. No significant changes in intracellular PTH expression were observed.
Conclusions
In this study, two novel RVs of PTH(Val52Ile and Leu90Phe) were identified that may impair hormone synthesis and secretion. Our study has broadened the mutation spectrum of the PTH and shed light on potential mechanisms underlying FIH.
4.Two novel rare variants in the PTH gene found in patients with hypoparathyroidism
Yue JIANG ; An SONG ; Jiajia WANG ; Xinqi CHENG ; Jing YANG ; Yan JIANG ; Mei LI ; Weibo XIA ; Xiaoping XING ; Min NIE ; Ou WANG
Osteoporosis and Sarcopenia 2025;11(1):22-28
Objectives:
Hypoparathyroidism (HP) is a rare endocrine disorder caused by parathyroid hormone (PTH) defi ciency. The PTH is a candidate gene for familial isolated hypoparathyroidism (FIH). This study aimed to investigate the pathogenicity of two novel rare variants (RVs) ofPTH through in vitro functional study.
Methods:
Targeted next-generation sequencing was used to identify candidate gene mutations. Clinical data were retrospectively collected. Wild-type (WT) PTH was used as a template for site-directed mutagenesis to create mutant eukaryotic expression plasmids, which were transfected into cells. Treated with or without 4-phenylbu tyric acid (4-PBA), the levels of intact PTH (iPTH) and PTH (1-84) were measured by chemiluminescence, and protein expression was assessed using Western blotting.
Results:
Two patients carrying PTH mutations (c.154G > A: p.Val52Ile, c.270G > T: p.Leu90Phe) were identified.Patient 1, a 45-year-old male, presented with carpal and pedal numbness, muscle cramps, and low serum calcium (1.29 mmol/L). Patient 2, a 12-year-old female, had muscle twitches, convulsions, low calcium (1.50 mmol/L), and iPTH of 4 pg/mL. The iPTH or PTH (1-84) levels in the medium transfected with mutant Val52Ile and Leu90Phe PTH decreased by 31%–38%, and 51%–96% compared to WT (allP < 0.05), which were not rescued by 4-PBA. No significant changes in intracellular PTH expression were observed.
Conclusions
In this study, two novel RVs of PTH(Val52Ile and Leu90Phe) were identified that may impair hormone synthesis and secretion. Our study has broadened the mutation spectrum of the PTH and shed light on potential mechanisms underlying FIH.
5.HIV Pretreatment Drug Resistance and Transmission Clusters among Newly Diagnosed Patients in the China-Myanmar Border Region, 2020-2023.
Huan LIU ; Yue Cheng YANG ; Xing DUAN ; Yi Chen JIN ; Yan Fen CAO ; Yi FENG ; Chang CAI ; He He ZHAO ; Hou Lin TANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(7):840-847
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of HIV pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) and the transmission clusters associated with PDR-related mutations in newly diagnosed, treatment-naive patients between 2020 and 2023 in Dehong prefecture, Yunnan province, China.
METHODS:
Demographic information and plasma samples were collected from study participants. PDR was assessed using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database. The Tamura-Nei 93 model within HIV-TRACE was employed to compute pairwise matches with a genetic distance of 0.015 substitutions per site.
RESULTS:
Among 948 treatment-naive individuals with eligible sequences, 36 HIV subtypes were identified, with unique recombinant forms (URFs) being the most prevalent (18.8%, 178/948). The overall prevalence of PDR was 12.4% (118/948), and resistance to non-nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was 10.7%, 1.3%, and 1.6%, respectively. A total of 91 clusters were identified, among which eight showed evidence of PDR strain transmission. The largest PDR-associated cluster consisted of six CRF01_AE drug-resistant strains carrying K103N and V179T mutations; five of these individuals had initial CD4+ cell counts < 200 cells/μL.
CONCLUSION
The distribution of HIV subtypes in Dehong is diverse and complex. PDR was moderately prevalent (12.4%) between 2020 and 2023. Evidence of transmission of CRF01_AE strains carrying K103N and V179T mutations was found. Routine surveillance of PDR and the strengthening of control measures are essential to limit the spread of drug-resistance HIV strains.
Humans
;
HIV Infections/virology*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Drug Resistance, Viral
;
Male
;
Adult
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
HIV-1/genetics*
;
Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use*
;
Myanmar/epidemiology*
;
Young Adult
;
Prevalence
;
Adolescent
;
Mutation
6.Comparison of image quality between gradient and spin-echo and compressed sensing sequences for single breath-hold magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography
Yanan LI ; Ganglian FAN ; Xing LI ; Yannan CHENG ; Huan WANG ; Xueyan ZHANG ; Zhangrui LIANG ; Jianxin GUO
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences) 2025;46(1):125-131
Objective To compare image quality and clinical usefulness between single breath-hold three-dimensional magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography with compressed sensing(3D BH-CS-MRCP)and with gradient and spin-echo(3D BH-GRASE-MRCP)and conventional three-dimensional breath-triggered magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography(3D RT-MRCP).Methods A retrospective analysis was performed in 48 patients(26 males and 22 females,mean age of 53.14±15.19 years),who underwent 3D BH-GRASE-MRCP,3D BH-CS-MRCP and 3D RT-MRCP from September to December 2023.Pancreaticobiliary duct visibility,motion artifacts,background suppression,and overall image quality were scored on a 5-point scale by two radiologists.The relative contrast ratio of three bile duct segmentations(common bile duct,left and right intrahepatic bile ducts)were calculated,and the acquisition time of the three sequences was recorded.Friedman test with a post-hoc test was performed to compare image acquisition time,qualitative and quantitative results.Results The acquisition time was significantly shorter in the two breath-hold groups than for conventional 3D RT-MRCP(P<0.001).There were no significant differences in overall image quality,motion artifacts,common bile duct and primary branch of intrahepatic bile duct among the three groups.The relative contrast ratio,intrahepatic biliary secondary branch visibility and background suppression score of 3D RT-MRCP and BH-CS-MRCP were significantly higher than those of BH-GRASE-MRCP(P<0.01).The pancreatic duct(proximal,middle,distal)visibility score of 3D RT-MRCP was significantly better than that of BH-GRASE-MRCP(P=0.002,0.043,0.001),but the gallbladder and gallbladder duct visibility score of BH-GRASE-MRCP was higher than that of 3D RT-MRCP(P=0.036).There was no significant difference between 3D RT-MRCP and BH-CS-MRCP scores except for the middle and distal pancreatic duct visibility.Conclusion Breath-hold 3D MRCP with GRASE and CS can give us feasible options for pancreaticobiliary diagnosis,which significantly shortens the acquisition time without reducing the overall image quality.Compared with BH-GRASE-MRCP,BH-CS-MRCP has better consistency in pancreaticobiliary duct visibility and background suppression.
7.Association between handgrip strength and chronic kidney disease in adult residents in Anhui Province
Wei XU ; Guodie XIE ; Jingyao HU ; Dan DAI ; Xiuya XING ; Huadong WANG ; Qin HE ; Jingqiao XU ; Yili LYU ; Qianyao CHENG ; Qinglian MENG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(7):1231-1236
Objective:To explore the independent association between handgrip strength and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in adult residents in Anhui Province using data from the China Adult Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance (2023).Methods:A multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method was used to select residents aged ≥18 years for surveys, physical measurements, and laboratory tests. Relevant covariates were adjusted, and a multivariable logistic regression model was established to infer the association between handgrip strength and CKD, followed by subgroup analysis.Results:A total of 7 295 participants were included in the study, with age of (61.5±13.2) years, and 55.6% of the study participants were women. The results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that with each 1.0 kg increase in handgrip strength, the risk for CKD decreased by 1.3% ( OR=0.987, 95% CI: 0.978-0.997). Compared with those with low handgrip strength, the people with moderate hasdgrip strength ( OR=0.818, 95% CI: 0.694-0.964) and high handgrip strength ( OR=0.729, 95% CI: 0.598-0.989) had lower risk for CKD. In the subgroup analysis, the association between handgrip strength and risk for CKD remained unchanged regardless age, sex, smoking status, and alcohol consumption statuys, and the prevalence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia (interaction P>0.05), except BMI and diabetes. Conclusion:The decline in handgrip strength is associated with an increased risk for CKD in adult residents in Anhui.
8.Guideline for Adult Weight Management in China
Weiqing WANG ; Qin WAN ; Jianhua MA ; Guang WANG ; Yufan WANG ; Guixia WANG ; Yongquan SHI ; Tingjun YE ; Xiaoguang SHI ; Jian KUANG ; Bo FENG ; Xiuyan FENG ; Guang NING ; Yiming MU ; Hongyu KUANG ; Xiaoping XING ; Chunli PIAO ; Xingbo CHENG ; Zhifeng CHENG ; Yufang BI ; Yan BI ; Wenshan LYU ; Dalong ZHU ; Cuiyan ZHU ; Wei ZHU ; Fei HUA ; Fei XIANG ; Shuang YAN ; Zilin SUN ; Yadong SUN ; Liqin SUN ; Luying SUN ; Li YAN ; Yanbing LI ; Hong LI ; Shu LI ; Ling LI ; Yiming LI ; Chenzhong LI ; Hua YANG ; Jinkui YANG ; Ling YANG ; Ying YANG ; Tao YANG ; Xiao YANG ; Xinhua XIAO ; Dan WU ; Jinsong KUANG ; Lanjie HE ; Wei GU ; Jie SHEN ; Yongfeng SONG ; Qiao ZHANG ; Hong ZHANG ; Yuwei ZHANG ; Junqing ZHANG ; Xianfeng ZHANG ; Miao ZHANG ; Yifei ZHANG ; Yingli LU ; Hong CHEN ; Li CHEN ; Bing CHEN ; Shihong CHEN ; Guiyan CHEN ; Haibing CHEN ; Lei CHEN ; Yanyan CHEN ; Genben CHEN ; Yikun ZHOU ; Xianghai ZHOU ; Qiang ZHOU ; Jiaqiang ZHOU ; Hongting ZHENG ; Zhongyan SHAN ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Dong ZHAO ; Ji HU ; Jiang HU ; Xinguo HOU ; Bimin SHI ; Tianpei HONG ; Mingxia YUAN ; Weibo XIA ; Xuejiang GU ; Yong XU ; Shuguang PANG ; Tianshu GAO ; Zuhua GAO ; Xiaohui GUO ; Hongyi CAO ; Mingfeng CAO ; Xiaopei CAO ; Jing MA ; Bin LU ; Zhen LIANG ; Jun LIANG ; Min LONG ; Yongde PENG ; Jin LU ; Hongyun LU ; Yan LU ; Chunping ZENG ; Binhong WEN ; Xueyong LOU ; Qingbo GUAN ; Lin LIAO ; Xin LIAO ; Ping XIONG ; Yaoming XUE
Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism 2025;41(11):891-907
Body weight abnormalities, including overweight, obesity, and underweight, have become a dual public health challenge in Chinese adults: overweight and obesity lead to a variety of chronic complications, while underweight increases the risks of malnutrition, sarcopenia, and organ dysfunction. To systematically address these issues, multidisciplinary experts in endocrinology, sports science, nutrition, and psychiatry from various regions have held multiple weight management seminars. Based on the latest epidemiological data and clinical evidence, they expanded the guideline to include assessment and intervention strategies for underweight, in addition to the core content of obesity management. This guideline outlines the etiological mechanisms, evaluation methods, and multidimensional management strategies for overweight and obesity, covering key areas such as diagnosis and assessment, medical nutrition therapy, exercise prescription, pharmacological intervention, and psychological support. It is intended to provide a scientific and standardized approach to weight management across the adult population, aiming to curb the rising prevalence of obesity, mitigate complications associated with abnormal body weight, and improve nutritional status and overall quality of life.
9.Role of hippocampal activating transcription factor 5 in cognitive impairment induced by neuropathic pain in mice: relationship with mitochondrial unfolded protein response
Fei XING ; Xiaoshan SHI ; Yaowei XU ; Xin WEI ; Mingcui QU ; Dan CHENG ; Jingjing YUAN ; Zhongyu WANG ; Na XING ; Yanna LI
Chinese Journal of Anesthesiology 2025;45(3):329-334
Objective:To evaluate the role of hippocampal activating transcription factor 5 (ATF5) in cognitive impairment induced by neuropathic pain and the relationship with mitochondrial unfolded protein response(mtUPR) in mice.Methods:This study was conducted in 2 parts. Experiment Ⅰ Twenty-four SPF healthy male C57BL/6 mice, aged 6-8 weeks, weighing 20-25 g, were divided into 2 groups ( n=12 each) using a random number table method: sham operation group (S1 group) and neuropathic pain group (NP group). Neuropathic pain was induced by chronic constriction injury to the sciatic nerve. The mechanical paw withdrawal threshold (MWT) and thermal paw withdrawal latency (TWL) were measured before developing the model and at 7, 14, 21 and 28 days after developing the model. Mouse cognitive function was assessed using the novel object recognition test from 30-31 days after developing the model. After the end of the novel object recognition test, mice were sacrificed and the hippocampal CA1 region was harvested for determination of the expression of ATF5 (by Western blot) and the expression of ATF5 in neurons, microglia and astrocytes (by immunofluorescence double staining). Experiment Ⅱ Thirty-six SPF healthy male C57BL/6 mice, aged 6-8 weeks, weighing 20-25 g, were divided into 3 groups ( n=12 each) using a random number table method: sham operation group (S2 group), neuropathic pain + ATF5 up-regulation group (NA group), and neuropathic pain + empty virus group (NE group). On day 14 after developing the model, a virus that specifically up-regulated ATF5 expression in neurons and empty virus were injected into the hippocampal CA1 region. The MWT and TWL were measured at days 28 and 35 after developing the model. The novel object recognition test was performed on day 36 after developing the model to evaluate the cognitive function. After the end of the behavioral test, mice were sacrificed and the hippocampal CA1 region was harvested for detection of the expression of ATF5 and mtUPR marker proteins (Lon protease [LONP1] and heat shock protein 60 [HSP60]) by Western blot. Results:Experiment Ⅰ Compared with S1 group, no statistically significant change was found in the MWT and TWL before developing the model ( P>0.05), the MWT and TWL were significantly decreased on days 7, 14, 21 and 28 after developing the model, the discrimination index (DI) was decreased at day 31 after developing the model, the expression of ATF5 was down-regulated, the expression of ATF5 in neurons was down-regulated ( P<0.05), and no statistically significant change was found in the expression of ATF5 in mircrolia and astrocytes in NP group ( P>0.05). Experiment Ⅱ Compared with S2 group, the MWT and TWL were significantly decreased on days 28 and 35 after developing the model in NE group and NA group, DI was decreased, and the expression of ATF5, LONP1 and HSP60 was down-regulated in NE group ( P<0.05), and no significant change was found in NA group ( P>0.05). Compared with NE group, no significant change was found in the MWT and TWL in NA group ( P>0.05), DI was significantly increased, and the expression of ATF5, LONP1 and HSP60 was up-regulated in NA group ( P<0.05). Conclusions:Down-regulated ATF5 in the hippocampus is involved in the process of cognitive impairment caused by neuropathic pain, and the mechanism may be related to the inhibition of mtUPR.
10.Application of ARIMA in prediction of prevalence trend of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in ICU
Shifan JIANG ; Yingjie ZHANG ; Juan LU ; Jin CHENG ; Cejie LAN ; Xing WU
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(6):933-938
OBJECTIVE To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)in prediction of prevalence trends of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)in intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide scientific bases for formulating prevention strategies for CRKP infection in ICU.METHODS The number of CRKP strains that were monthly isolated from the ICU patients of Jiangnan University Affiliated Hospital between Jan.2021 and Jan.2024 was collected,the duplicate samples from the same patient were excluded,and totally 555 strains of CRKP were finally enrolled in the study.The time series differencing was performed by using R statistical software,the ARIMA model was established,the parameters of the model were determined by means of autocorrelation function(ACF)and partial autocorrelation function(PACF)images.The optimal model was screened out by Akaike information criterion(AIC)and root-mean-square error(RMSD),the robustness of the residual sequences was assessed by Box-Ljung test.The data that were detected from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024 were assigned as the validation set,the prediction accuracy of the model was assessed,and the dy-namic trend of the CRKP strains from Feb.2024 to Apr.2024 was predicted.RESULTS The isolation rate of CRKP strains in ICU showed dynamic change from 2021 to 2023(x2=66.906,P=0.001),sputum and midstream urine were the major sources.The minimal AIC of the optimal ARIMA model(8,1,10)was 222.1,with RMSE 3.67.Box-Ljung(x2=0.104,P=0.746)test indicated that there was no autocorrelation among the residual se-quences.Both the actual CRKP and the predictive value firstly rose then descended from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024,and the average relative error of the model was 9.62%for prediction.The number of isolated CRKP strains predic-ted by the model might reached to the lowest point in Feb.2024 and then showed an upward trend,and it might reach to a high peak in Apr.CONCLUSION ARIMA model is effective for short-term prediction and dynamic anal-ysis of prevalence trend of CRKP strains in the ICU so as to provide theoretical basis for early warning of hospital-associated infection and take corresponding prevention measures.

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