1.Efficacy Analysis of RCT of Arsenic-containing TCM Compound in Treatment of Myelodysplastic Syndrome Based on MMRM and Win Ratio
Daxiang SUN ; Peizhen JIANG ; Haixia DI ; Bing WU ; Qifeng LIU ; Jian LIU ; Jiahe LIANG ; Xudong TANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):251-259
ObjectiveThis paper aims to conduct a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial on the treatment of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) with deficiency of both the spleen and kidney and blockage of toxin and blood stasis with an arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound, by applying the mixed model for repeated measure (MMRM) and the method of stratified composite outcome with win ratio. The analysis includes the assessment of hematological efficacy and the composite outcome evaluation of adverse reactions, so as to more comprehensively assess the therapy of this regimen. MethodsThe MMRM and win ratio methods were used to evaluate the efficacy of a prospective,multi-center,double-blind,randomized controlled study. The blood routine (hemoglobin concentration,neutrophil count, and platelet count) and biochemical indexes (aspartate aminotransferase,alanine aminotransferase,serum creatinine,and serum ferritin) of the patients were detected at the time of enrollment and at the end of each course of treatment in the laboratory department of Xiyuan Hospital. The patients' syndromes at the time of enrollment and after treatment were recorded and scored according to the therapy standard of traditional Chinese medicine for diseases and syndromes. MMRM was used to analyze the blood routine indexes of the experimental group and the control group. This method has the advantages of high data reliability and dynamic efficacy under intervention and time. The win ratio method was used to evaluate the composite outcome of traditional Chinese medicine syndrome scores and biochemical indexes according to the priority and to verify the clinical safety of arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound. ResultsThe results of MMRM analysis showed that the hemoglobin concentration of patients in the group with arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound increased significantly compared with that before treatment in the group,while that in the placebo group decreased significantly (P<0.01). When compared with that after treatment in the placebo group,the hemoglobin concentration of patients in the group with arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound increased significantly,and the mean difference of least squares (LS) was statistically significant (P<0.01). When compared with those before treatment in the group,there were no statistically significant differences in the neutrophil count and platelet count in both groups. After treatment,there were no statistically significant differences in the neutrophil count, platelet count, and the mean difference of LS between the two groups. The analysis results of win ratio showed that the group with arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound had a significant advantage in the comparison of composite outcomes,with a win ratio (95% CI) of 2.01 (1.24-3.27) (P<0.01),and that the possibility of "winning" in terms of safety was 2.01 times that of the placebo group. The safety advantage of the group with arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound mainly came from the traditional Chinese medicine syndrome scores,renal function indexes, and iron reserve capacity indexes,and the number of winning times was less than that of losing times in the comparison of liver function outcomes. ConclusionThe MMRM analysis proves that the arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound can significantly improve the hemoglobin concentration of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome with refractory cytopenia and multilineage dysplasia (MDS-RCMD) of the type of deficiency of both the spleen and kidney and blockage of toxin and blood stasis. This conclusion is not interfered with by time trends and individual relationships and methodologically improves the credibility of the therapy of the arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound in treating MDS. Four outcomes are evaluated by the win ratio method,namely traditional Chinese medicine syndromes,liver function,renal function, and iron reserve capacity,proving that the arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound has the comprehensive advantages of improving the survival quality of the patients and reducing adverse reactions. The win ratio outcome provides clear comparative indexes for the evaluation of adverse reactions,making it easier for regulatory authorities,medical staff, and patients to understand the safety of the arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine compound in clinical application.
2.Tocilizumab combined with hyperbaric oxygen therapy in treatment of children with antibody-negative autoimmune encephalitis: A case report and literature review
Journal of Apoplexy and Nervous Diseases 2026;43(4):363-368
Antibody-negative autoimmune encephalitis (AE) in children poses certain challenges for clinical diagnosis and treatment due to the lack of characteristic autoantibodies. This study conducts a retrospective analysis of the clinical data of a boy, aged 7 years, who had the main manifestations of “irritability, vomiting, pyrexia, and lethargy”. Video electroencephalography showed diffuse slow waves, with the presence of type 2 cerebrospinal fluid oligoclonal bands, and the boy was tested negative for related autoantibodies in blood and cerebrospinal fluid. Finally the boy was diagnosed with antibody-negative AE. After admission, the boy received first-line immunotherapy with methylprednisolone and intravenous immunoglobulin, combined with tocilizumab for intensive treatment, and the symptoms were rapidly relieved. At 1 week after discharge, the boy experienced memory loss, and head MRI suggested cerebral atrophy. After 1 month of adjuvant hyperbaric oxygen therapy, the boy’s memory recovered to the level before disease onset, and reexaminations of MRI and video electroencephalography obtained normal results.No recurrence was observed during follow-up for 6 months, and the boy achieved satisfactory academic performance.This case suggests that for children with antibody-negative AE, first-line immunotherapy combined with tocilizumab can rapidly control inflammation, and the addition of hyperbaric oxygen therapy can effectively improve subsequent cerebral structural and cognitive abnormalities, with few adverse reactions, which provides a new clinical approach for the treatment of this type of disease.
3.Establishment of multi-rule trend analysis for whole blood, washed red blood cells, and leukocyte-depleted suspended red blood cells
Shanshan LIU ; Ernan WAN ; Xiaotang YU ; Xue JIANG ; Hong YUAN
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(7):934-941
Objective: To present the plotting of trend analysis charts and the application of multi-rule trend analysis method for monitoring the quality of whole blood, washed red blood cells, and leukocyte-depleted suspended red blood cells. Methods: Samples of whole blood, washed red blood cells, and leukocyte-depleted suspended red blood cells were collected in accordance with relevant protocols and requirements. The results of blood quality testing were compiled. The trend line charts were plotted for the deviation rates of volume, hemoglobin (Hb) content, supernatant protein content, and leukocyte residual count. In addition, the trend line chart were plotted for hematocrit and post-storage hemolysis rate. Results: The trend analysis rules for the deviation rate of volume from the standard were: 1
categorized as out-of-control, (3 of 4)
as warning, R
as warning, 8
as alert, and 12
as alert. For Hb content deviation rate, the rules were: <0% categorized as out-of-control; <20% but ≥0% (for whole blood) or <10% but ≥0% (for washed red blood cells and leukocyte-depleted suspended red blood cells) as a warning. For supernatant protein content deviation rate, the rules were: ≥0.0% as out-of-control, and >-10% but <0.0% as a warning. For hematocrit, the rules were: 1
as out-of-control and (3 of 4)
as warning. For leukocyte residual count deviation rate, the rules were: >0.0% as out-of-control, and >-10% but ≤0.0% as a warning. For post-storage hemolysis rate, the rule was: ≥0.8% out-of-control. Conclusion: The application of multi-rule trend analysis facilitates the timely identification of trend abnormalities and factors causing deviations in the collection and preparation processes of whole blood, washed red blood cells, and leukocyte-depleted suspended red blood cells, thereby providing reliable numerical evidence for their correction and adjustment.
4.The common causal relationship between gut microbiota and respiratory diseases based on the theory of "lung and large intestine being interior-exterior related"
Zhenghua CAO ; Shaodan HU ; Feng SUN ; Guolu JIANG ; Li SHI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(08):1282-1289
Objective To comprehensively evaluate the causal relationship between gut microbiota and 9 respiratory diseases, explore whether there are common mechanisms among these 9 respiratory diseases, and delves into the potential commonalities of pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (pre-COPD) by focusing on COPD, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis. Methods Mendelian randomization was used to explore the causal relationship between gut microbiota and 9 respiratory diseases, sensitivity analysis was conducted, and robustness was verified. Single nucleotide polymorphisms of common gut microbiota were mapped to genes to explore their common mechanisms. Results Mendelian randomization studies found that 66 gut microbiota had a causal relationship with 9 respiratory diseases, and 15 gut microbiota might be potential common mechanisms for these 9 respiratory diseases, with a total of 85 potential genes. GO functional enrichment analysis found that these genes were mainly enriched in biological functions such as synaptic transmission, synaptic membrane, cytokine activity, and growth factor binding. KEGG enrichment analysis showed that these genes were mainly enriched in glutamatergic synapses, relaxin signaling pathway, calcium signaling pathway, Rap1 signaling pathway, and PI3K-Akt signaling pathway. Allisonella and Prevotellaceae might be protective factors for pre-COPD, while Howardella might be a risk factor. Ten protective genes and six risk genes for the pre-COPD were identified. Conclusion This study further confirms the correlation between the lung-gut axis and the lung-colon connection, explores the potential common mechanisms of 9 respiratory diseases, investigates the potential mechanisms of pre-COPD based on the common gut microbiota of COPD, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema, and provides some ideas for the early prevention and treatment of COPD, and diagnosis of pre-COPD from the perspective of gut microbiota.
5.Value of Golgi protein 73 in assessing liver fibrosis degree and prognosis of patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma
Wanying HUO ; Hua HE ; Xinyi YU ; Maiman HE ; Jing JIANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(8):1878-1887
ObjectiveTo assess the performance of preoperative serum Golgi protein 73 (GP73) in diagnosing liver fibrosis degree in patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), to investigate its value in predicting postoperative survival, and to provide a basis for risk stratification and individualized decision-making in this population. MethodsA total of 631 patients with HCC who underwent liver resection at The First Hospital of Jilin University from March 1, 2009 to December 31, 2022 were enrolled. The demographic, pathological, and serological features of the patients were collected, and the serum level of GP73 was measured before surgery. Scheuer score determined by liver biopsy was used as the gold standard for diagnosing liver fibrosis; the Spearman correlation analysis was used to investigate the correlation between GP73 and liver fibrosis; the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the value of serum GP73 and compound serological markers in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis, and the Delong test was used for comparison of AUC. With all-cause mortality as the outcome, X-Tile 3.6.1 software was used to determine the optimal cut-off value of GP73; the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent influencing factors for prognosis, and a nomogram model was constructed. Ten-fold cross-validation was used for internal validation; index of concordance (C-index), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) index were calculated; calibration curve and decision curve analysis were used to assess the predictive performance of the model. ResultsThe serum level of GP73 was positively correlated with Scheuer liver fibrosis stage (rs=0.255, P<0.001). Serum GP73 had a significantly higher AUC than gamma-glutamyl transferase-to-platelet ratio (0.704 vs 0.634, Z=2.00, P=0.046) and S index (0.704 vs 0.637, Z=1.98, P=0.048) in the diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis, with no significant difference compared with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (AUC=0.722) and fibrosis-4 index (AUC=0.695) (both P>0.05). During a median follow-up time of 48.66 months, 239 patients (37.9%) died. GP73 had an optimal cut-off value of 65 ng/mL in predicting postoperative mortality in patients with resectable HCC, and high GP73 expression (≥65 ng/mL) alone achieved a C-index of 0.617 for predicting the prognosis of HCC patients, which was better than the C-index of 0.551 for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (P<0.001). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that serum GP73 (hazard ratio [HR]=2.56, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.86 — 3.52, P<0.001), sex (HR=1.58, 95%CI: 1.10 — 2.28, P=0.014), vascular invasion (HR=1.69, 95%CI: 1.30 — 2.21, P<0.001), total bilirubin (HR=1.49, 95%CI: 1.16 — 1.93, P=0.002), and maximum tumor diameter (HR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.04 — 1.11, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality after hepatectomy in patients with HCC. In order to assess whether the addition of GP73 to the other four variables could further improve model performance, the model based on GP73, sex, vascular invasion, total bilirubin, and maximum tumor diameter was defined as the GP73-included model, and the model based on all five variables except GP73 was defined as the GP73-excluded model. The GP73-included model achieved an AUC of 0.704 (95%CI: 0.656 — 0.753) for predicting 5-year survival rate after surgery, and ten-fold cross-validation showed that this model had a mean C-index of 0.716 (95%CI: 0.682 — 0.750), which was higher than the C-index of the GP73-excluded model (C-index=0.682, 95%CI: 0.645 — 0.719, P=0.008) and BCLC stage (C-index=0.551, 95%CI: 0.523 — 0.580, P<0.001). Compared with the GP73-excluded model, the GP73-included model yielded an IDI index of 0.039 (95%CI: 0.016 — 0.069, P<0.001) and an NRI index of 0.259 (95%CI: 0.179 — 0.335, P<0.001), and compared with BCLC stage, the GP73-included model had an IDI index of 0.112 (95%CI: 0.069 — 0.163, P<0.001) and an NRI index of 0.272 (95%CI: 0.169 — 0.380, P<0.001). Calibration curve and decision curve analyses showed that the GP73-included model had good calibration and net clinical benefit. ConclusionGP73 can be used as a serological biomarker for diagnosing liver fibrosis in patients with resectable HCC, and preoperative GP73 level has a certain value in predicting the survival of these patients after hepatectomy. The integrated prognostic model incorporating GP73 can help to optimize postoperative risk stratification, thereby providing a basis for decision-making in precise treatment of HCC.
6.Expression profiles of HBsAg and HBcAg in liver tissue and their correlation with serological markers in children with chronic hepatitis B
Yue JIANG ; Lina JIANG ; Shuhong LIU ; Bokang ZHAO ; Junqi NIU ; Jingmin ZHAO
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(10):2037-2043
ObjectiveTo investigate the expression features of HBsAg and HBcAg in liver tissue and their correlation with HBV serum markers in children with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). MethodsA total of 257 patients who were consecutively admitted to The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 2013 to December 2023 and underwent liver biopsy to achieve a confirmed diagnosis of CHB were enrolled in this study. The NIS-Elements system was used to capture the immunohistochemical images of HBsAg and HBcAg in liver tissues, and Image J software was used for quantitative analysis. The one-sample chi-square test was used for within-group comparison of continuous data, and the Pearson/Spearman/Kendall’s Tau-b correlation analysis was used to investigate the correlation between viral antigen expression and serological markers. ResultsAmong the 257 CHB patients, there were 162 children (76 children aged<5 years and 86 children aged 5 — 18 years) and 95 adults. There were significant differences in the expression pattern, area, and intensity of HBsAg and the area and intensity of HBcAg in liver tissue between different age groups and between the children with different HBeAg statuses (all P<0.05). In the children aged<5 years, HBsAg staining area was significantly negatively correlated with anti-HBs and HBeAg (both P<0.05)and was significantly positively correlated with ALT and AST (both P<0.05), and HBsAg staining intensity was significantly positively correlated with qHBsAg (P<0.05) and was significantly negatively correlated with anti-HBs (P<0.05). In the children group, HBsAg staining area was negatively correlated with anti-HBs and HBeAg (both P<0.05), and HBsAg staining intensity was positively correlated with qHBsAg (P<0.05) and was negatively correlated with anti-HBs (P<0.05). In the adult group, HBsAg staining area was positively correlated with ALT, AST, and liver inflammatory activity (all P<0.05), and HBsAg staining intensity was positively correlated with qHBsAg, HBeAg, and HBV DNA (all P<0.05) and was negatively correlated with liver inflammatory activity and fibrosis degree (both P<0.05). In the children aged<5 years, HBcAg staining area was positively correlated with qHBsAg and HBV DNA (both P<0.05), and HBcAg staining intensity was significantly positively correlated with HBV DNA (P<0.001). In the children aged 5 — 18 years, the area and intensity of HBcAg staining were positively correlated with qHBsAg, HBeAg, and HBV DNA (all P<0.05). In the children group, HBcAg staining area was positively correlated with qHBsAg, HBeAg, and HBV DNA (all P<0.05), and HBcAg staining intensity was positively correlated with qHBsAg and HBV DNA (both P<0.05). In the adult group, the area and intensity of HBcAg staining were positively correlated with qHBsAg, HBeAg, and HBV DNA (all P<0.001), and HBcAg staining area was positively correlated with the serum level of ALT (P=0.043). ConclusionThe expression levels of HBsAg and HBcAg in liver tissue of children with CHB are significantly correlated with serological markers, and in clinical practice, HBsAg and HBcAg combined with serological markers can help to assess the condition of the liver, determine the immune stage, and provide evidence-based guidance for treatment timing.
7.Real-world efficacy and safety of azvudine in hospitalized older patients with COVID-19 during the omicron wave in China: A retrospective cohort study.
Yuanchao ZHU ; Fei ZHAO ; Yubing ZHU ; Xingang LI ; Deshi DONG ; Bolin ZHU ; Jianchun LI ; Xin HU ; Zinan ZHAO ; Wenfeng XU ; Yang JV ; Dandan WANG ; Yingming ZHENG ; Yiwen DONG ; Lu LI ; Shilei YANG ; Zhiyuan TENG ; Ling LU ; Jingwei ZHU ; Linzhe DU ; Yunxin LIU ; Lechuan JIA ; Qiujv ZHANG ; Hui MA ; Ana ZHAO ; Hongliu JIANG ; Xin XU ; Jinli WANG ; Xuping QIAN ; Wei ZHANG ; Tingting ZHENG ; Chunxia YANG ; Xuguang CHEN ; Kun LIU ; Huanhuan JIANG ; Dongxiang QU ; Jia SONG ; Hua CHENG ; Wenfang SUN ; Hanqiu ZHAN ; Xiao LI ; Yafeng WANG ; Aixia WANG ; Li LIU ; Lihua YANG ; Nan ZHANG ; Shumin CHEN ; Jingjing MA ; Wei LIU ; Xiaoxiang DU ; Meiqin ZHENG ; Liyan WAN ; Guangqing DU ; Hangmei LIU ; Pengfei JIN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(1):123-132
Debates persist regarding the efficacy and safety of azvudine, particularly its real-world outcomes. This study involved patients aged ≥60 years who were admitted to 25 hospitals in mainland China with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between December 1, 2022, and February 28, 2023. Efficacy outcomes were all-cause mortality during hospitalization, the proportion of patients discharged with recovery, time to nucleic acid-negative conversion (T NANC), time to symptom improvement (T SI), and time of hospital stay (T HS). Safety was also assessed. Among the 5884 participants identified, 1999 received azvudine, and 1999 matched controls were included after exclusion and propensity score matching. Azvudine recipients exhibited lower all-cause mortality compared with controls in the overall population (13.3% vs. 17.1%, RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.90; P = 0.001) and in the severe subgroup (25.7% vs. 33.7%; RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.66-0.88; P < 0.001). A higher proportion of patients discharged with recovery, and a shorter T NANC were associated with azvudine recipients, especially in the severe subgroup. The incidence of adverse events in azvudine recipients was comparable to that in the control group (2.3% vs. 1.7%, P = 0.170). In conclusion, azvudine showed efficacy and safety in older patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the SARS-CoV-2 omicron wave in China.
8.Bacteroi des fragilis-derived succinic acid promotes the degradation of uric acid by inhibiting hepatic AMPD2: Insight into how plant-based berberine ameliorates hyperuricemia.
Libin PAN ; Ru FENG ; Jiachun HU ; Hang YU ; Qian TONG ; Xinyu YANG ; Jianye SONG ; Hui XU ; Mengliang YE ; Zhengwei ZHANG ; Jie FU ; Haojian ZHANG ; Jinyue LU ; Zhao ZHAI ; Jingyue WANG ; Yi ZHAO ; Hengtong ZUO ; Xiang HUI ; Jiandong JIANG ; Yan WANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(10):5244-5260
In recent decades, the prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout has increased dramatically due to lifestyle changes. The drugs currently recommended for hyperuricemia are associated with adverse reactions that limit their clinical use. In this study, we report that berberine (BBR) is an effective drug candidate for the treatment of hyperuricemia, with its mechanism potentially involving the modulation of gut microbiota and its metabolite, succinic acid. BBR has demonstrated good therapeutic effects in both acute and chronic animal models of hyperuricemia. In a clinical trial, oral administration of BBR for 6 months reduced blood uric acid levels in 22 participants by modulating the gut microbiota, which led to an increase in the abundance of Bacteroides and a decrease in Clostridium sensu stricto_1. Furthermore, Bacteroides fragilis was transplanted into ICR mice, and the results showed that Bacteroides fragilis exerted a therapeutic effect on uric acid similar to that of BBR. Notably, succinic acid, a metabolite of Bacteroides, significantly reduced uric acid levels. Subsequent cell and animal experiments revealed that the intestinal metabolite, succinic acid, regulated the upstream uric acid synthesis pathway in the liver by inhibiting adenosine monophosphate deaminase 2 (AMPD2), an enzyme responsible for converting adenosine monophosphate (AMP) to inosine monophosphate (IMP). This inhibition resulted in a decrease in IMP levels and an increase in phosphate levels. The reduction in IMP led to a decreased downstream production of hypoxanthine, xanthine, and uric acid. BBR also demonstrated excellent renoprotective effects, improving nephropathy associated with hyperuricemia. In summary, BBR has the potential to be an effective treatment for hyperuricemia through the gut-liver axis.
9.Causal association of obesity and chronic pain mediated by educational attainment and smoking: a mediation Mendelian randomization study
Yunshu LYU ; Qingxing LU ; Yane LIU ; Mengtong XIE ; Lintong JIANG ; Junnan LI ; Ning WANG ; Xianglong DAI ; Yuqi YANG ; Peiming JIANG ; Qiong YU
The Korean Journal of Pain 2025;38(2):177-186
Background:
Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship.
Methods:
This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders.
Results:
The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively.
Conclusions
The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.
10.Relationship between the degree of paravertebral muscle fat infiltration, trabecular bone score and fracture risk in postmenopausal osteoporosis patients
Guowei WANG ; Jingjing LIU ; Jiang WANG ; Changchun LIU
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2025;19(5):725-731
Objective:Through imaging analysis, the association between the degree of paravertebral muscle fat infiltration (fat infiltration, FI), trabecular bone score (TBS) and the fracture risk of postmenopausal osteoporosis (OP) patients was explored.Methods:A retrospective selection was made of 110 postmenopausal female patients diagnosed with OP at Jiangnan Hospital Affiliated to Zhejiang Chinese Medical University from Mar. 2023 to Mar. 2024. Additionally, healthy postmenopausal individuals who underwent physical examinations during the same period were included in the healthy postmenopausal group. The levels of paravertebral muscle FI and TBS in the two groups were compared. Postmenopausal patients with OP were followed up for one year, and the incidence of fractures in the patients was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curve. The patients were divided into the fracture group ( n=29) and the non-fracture group ( n=81). The clinical data of the two groups of patients at admission were compared. Binary Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors for fractures in patients. Spearman was used to analyze the correlation of fracture risk within one year among FI, TBS and postmenopausal OP patients. ROC was used to evaluate the predictive value of each independent risk factor. Results:The proportion of severe paraverteal muscle FI in the postmenopausal OP group was significantly higher than that in the healthy physical examination group (multifisis FI, erector spinae FI, psoas major muscle FI, χ2=14.96, 17.17, 16.08, all P=0.00), and the lumbar TBS level was significantly lower (t=4.52, P=0.00). The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that the degree of paravertebral muscle FI affected the incidence of fractures in patients ( χ2=14.58, P=0.00), and the level of lumbar TBS also affected the incidence of fractures in patients ( χ2=6.02, P=0.01). The bone mineral density (BMD), cross-sectional area of the multifidus muscle (CSA), erectus spinae muscle area (CSA), and psoas major muscle area (CSA) of patients in the fracture group were significantly lower than those in the non-fracture group ( t=10.72, 3.40, 3.46, 2.12). P=0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.04), while the indicators of TNF-α, IL-6 and PCT were higher than those in the non-fracture group ( t=4.11, 4.96, 5.48, all P=0.00). Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that high-level BMD ( OR=0.52, 95%CI: 0.27-0.77, P=0.01) and TBS ( OR=0.68, 95 %CI: 0.48-0.93 ,P=0.02) were protective factors for fractures in postmenopausal patients with OP. Multifidus FI ( OR=1.73, 95 %CI: 1.48-1.98, P=0.03), erector spinae FI ( OR=1.25, 95%CI:1.10-1.50, P=0.01), and psoas major FI ( OR=1.96, 95 %CI: 1.71-2.21, P=0.03) is the risk factor. Spearman analysis indicated that the paravertebral muscle FI of patients at the first diagnosis of OP was positively correlated with the risk of fracture within one year after diagnosis ( r=0.88, 0.91, 0.82, P=0.01, 0.01, 0.02), while the BMD and TBS values were negatively correlated ( r=-0.92, -0.77, P=0.00, 0.02). ROC showed that the values of multifidus FI, erector spinae FI, psoas major FI, BMD and TBS at admission all had good predictive efficacy for fractures within one year in patients [area under the ROC curve (AUC) =0.88, 0.84, 0.86, 0.73, 0.82]. Moreover, the predictive efficiency of the joint model is higher (AUC=0.89) . Conclusions:Higher BMD and TBS levels protect against fractures in postmenopausal OP patients ( OR=0.523-0.675), while severe paraspinal muscle FI (multifidus: OR=1.726; erector spinae: OR=1.248; psoas: OR=1.961) increases risk. The combined model shows excellent predictive value (AUC=0.890), serving as effective clinical warning indicators for fracture risk assessment.

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