1.Risk factors for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis and effectiveness of risk assessment models
Liu YANG ; Gang ZHU ; Longfei ZENG ; Benjian GAO ; Bo LI
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(3):647-654
ObjectiveTo investigate the influencing factors and independent risk factors for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP), to analyze the effectiveness of three commonly used risk assessment models for thrombosis (Caprini score, Padua score, and Wells score), and to provide a reference for clinical identification of high-risk individuals and optimization of prevention and treatment strategies. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 320 patients with ANP who were admitted to Luzhou People’s Hospital and The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from April 2013 to April 2024, and according to the presence or absence of DVT during hospitalization, the patients were divided into thrombosis group with 25 patients and control group with 295 patients. After propensity score matching, the two groups were compared in terms of past history and various examination results during hospitalization. The risk factors for lower extremity DVT in ANP patients during hospitalization were analyzed through univariate and multivariate Logistic regression, and a DVT risk prediction model was established based on independent influencing factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the performance of models, and the DeLong test was used for comparison of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. ResultsAfter matching, the patients were divided into thrombosis group with 24 patients and control group with 112 patients. The clinical characteristics analysis showed that compared with the control group, the thrombosis group had significantly higher degree of pancreatic necrosis, D-dimer level, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score, and proportion of patients undergoing dialysis (all P<0.05). The multivariable Logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP score, degree of pancreatic necrosis, and D-dimer level were independent risk factors for lower extremity DVT in ANP patients during hospitalization (all P<0.05). The BISAP-Caprini score model had an AUC of 0.832 (95% confidence interval: 0.722 — 0.942, P<0.001) in predicting the risk of lower extremity DVT, with a Youden index of 1.661, an optimal cut-off value of 0.26, a sensitivity of 75.0%, and a specificity of 91.1%. ConclusionD-dimer, BISAP score, and the degree of pancreatic necrosis are independent risk factors for lower extremity DVT in patients with ANP during hospitalization, and the BISAP-Caprini score model can effectively predict the risk of DVT in ANP patients.
2.Preoperative probing and dilation in nasolacrimal silicone intubation for incomplete primary acquired nasolacrimal duct obstruction
Cheng HU ; Yin LIU ; Jing CHEN ; Jinran FANG ; Nian XIANG ; Fan DU ; Bo ZENG
International Eye Science 2026;26(8):1316-1322
AIM:To assess the influence of preoperative lacrimal passage probing and dilation on the therapeutic effectiveness of nasolacrimal silicone intubation in cases of incomplete primary acquired nasolacrimal duct obstruction(PANDO).METHODS: A retrospective case-control clinical study was conducted. The study included patients with incomplete PANDO who underwent nasolacrimal silicone intubation at the hospital between October 2022 and October 2024. Participants were categorized into two groups based on their receipt of nasolacrimal duct probing and dilation prior to intubation. Group A consisted of patients who had undergone one or more sessions of nasolacrimal duct probing and dilation before nasolacrimal silicone intubation, while Group B included patients who did not receive nasolacrimal duct probing and dilation before intubation. All patients had their nasolacrimal silicone tubes removed 3 mo postoperatively and were monitored for 6 mo following tube removal to evaluate surgical success rates.RESULTS: A total of 136 patients(152 eyes)completed the six-month follow-up period. The overall surgical success rate for both groups was 72.4%(110/152 eyes).Group A included 22 males and 36 females, mean age 58.09±11.07 y, and achieved a success rate of 82.8%(53/64 eyes), while Group B included 27 males and 51 females, mean age 59.35±8.84 y and attained a success rate of 64.8%(57/88 eyes). The difference in surgical success rates between the two groups was statistically significant(P=0.014). Furthermore, Group A achieved a complete success rate of 67.2%(43/64 eyes), compared to 47.7%(42/88 eyes)in Group B, with this difference also reaching statistical significance(P=0.017). No serious postoperative complications were observed in either group.CONCLUSION: Nasolacrimal silicone intubation is a safe and effective intervention for incomplete PANDO, with preoperative nasolacrimal duct probing and dilation potentially enhancing therapeutic outcomes.
3.Huoluo Xiaolingdan Suppresses Triple-negative Breast Cancer in Mice by Regulating TCF1+ CD8+ Stem Cell-like T Cells Infiltration
Bo LUO ; Qu ZHANG ; Yujie SUN ; Lin LIU ; Lan ZENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(4):108-115
ObjectiveTo investigate the inhibitory effect of Huoluo Xiaolingdan on triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) in mice through its regulation of TCF1+CD8+ stem cell-like T cells infiltration. MethodsA mouse model of TNBC was established and the mice were randomly divided into the model group, low-dose (3.9 g·kg-1), medium-dose (7.8 g·kg-1) and high-dose (15.6 g·kg-1) Huoluo Xiaolingdan groups, and anti-PD-1 antibody treatment group. Each group was given a dose of 0.01 mL·g-1, while the model group and the anti-PD-1 treatment group were also given an equivalent volume of normal saline. The drug was administered for 21 days. In the anti-PD-1 antibody group, mice were intraperitoneally injected with 100 μg of mouse anti-PD-1 antibody twice a week, for a total of five injections. The tumor volume, survival time and tumor mass were measured at different time points. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining was used to observe the histological changes of the tumor. The expression of CD8+T cells and TCF1+CD8+ stem-like T cells in tumor tissues was detected by immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence staining. Flow cytometry was used to detect the difference of immune cell subsets in tumors and the expression difference of TCF1+CD8+ stem cell-like T cells in tumors and peripheral blood. The expression level of PD-L1 in tumor tissues was detected by Western blot. ResultsCompared with model group, the tumor volume and mass of in low-, medium- and high-dose Huoluo Xiaolingdan groups and anti-PD-1 group were decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The median survival time of mice in low-, medium- and high-dose Huoluo Xiaolingdan groups and anti-PD-1 group was as follows: 27.00 days (95%CI, 0.45-2.65), 31.00 days (95%CI, 0.32-1.89), 34.00 days (95%CI, 0.40-2.33), and 35.00 days (95%CI, 0.42-2.47). All of them were higher than that of the model group [24.50 days (95%CI, 0.37-10.5)]. Flow cytometry showed that compared with the model group, the proportion and number of infiltrating CD8+ T cells in tumor were increased in low-, medium- and high-dose Huoluo Xiaolingdan groups and anti-PD-1 group (P<0.05, P<0.01), while the proportion of tumor regulatory T cells (Treg) and M2 macrophages decreased (P<0.05). Compared with the model group, the proportion of IFN-γ+CD8+ T and GrzB+CD8+ T cells in tumors in low-, medium- and high-dose Huoluo Xiaolingdan groups and anti-PD-1 group was increased (P<0.01), and the proportion of TCF1+CD8+ T cells in tumor and peripheral blood was also increased. Immunofluorescence staining further showed that the number of TCF1+CD8+ T cells in tumor tissues increased in low-, medium- and high-dose Huoluo Xiaolingdan groups. Western blot analysis showed no significant decrease in the PD-L1 protein expression in tumor tissues between the Huoluo Xiaolingdan groups and the model group. ConclusionHuoluo Xiaolingdan can inhibit TNBC in mice by increasing tumor infiltration of TCF1+CD8+ stem-like T cells, enhancing CD8+ T cell activity, and regulating immune cell subgroups such as M2 macrophages and Treg cells to enhance anti-tumor immunity. This study provides a theoretical basis for the clinical application of Huoluo Xiaolingdan in breast cancer treatment and combination therapy.
4.Basic Research Progress and Prospect of Antibody-Drug Conjugate in Treatment of Pancreatic Cancer
Juying JIAO ; Lei ZHOU ; Bo LIN ; Jingyi ZENG ; Weijie XU
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2025;52(9):787-791
Most patients with pancreatic cancer are already in the locally advanced or metastatic stage at initial diagnosis. While systemic chemotherapy provides clinical benefits for those with mid-to-late-stage pancreatic cancer, its efficacy is often limited by patient tolerance. In response to the dual clinical demands of robust antitumor activity and high targeting specificity, antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) has emerged as a promising solution. By conjugating highly selective monoclonal antibodies with potent cytotoxic small-molecule drugs, ADC achieves precise tumor-targeting while minimizing damage to healthy tissues, which thereby improves treatment tolerance. However, due to the complex pathological features of pancreatic cancer, no ADC has yet been approved for clinical use for this disease. A comprehensive evaluation of factors including ADC-specific targets, payload selection, antibody-drug linkage strategies, drug delivery mechanisms, tissue distribution variability, and tumor heterogeneity will be crucial to advancing the clinical translation of ADC for pancreatic cancer treatment.
5.Complex associations among modifiable determinants of circadian syndrome among employed people in southwestern China.
Shujuan YANG ; Peng JIA ; Lei ZHANG ; Yuchen LI ; Peng YU ; Jiqi YANG ; Sihan WANG ; Honglian ZENG ; Bo YANG ; Bin YU
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(21):2804-2812
BACKGROUND:
Circadian syndrome (CircS) may be closely linked to lifestyle, psychological, and occupational factors, but evidence is lacking. This study aimed to explore complex associations between lifestyle, psychological and occupational factors and CircS among employed people in southwestern China.
METHODS:
In this study, network analysis was used to identify complex associations between lifestyle, psychological and occupational factors and CircS in employed people from the Chinese Cohort of Working Adults (CCWA). The centrality of each variable was estimated by strength centrality index, which was calculated by the sum of edge weights connected to the variable. Bridge in the network was identified as the variables in the top 80 th percentile of overall bridge strength, which was defined as the most strongly connected variables across lifestyle, psychological and occupational factors and CircS. The differences were assessed in network structures between subgroups divided by the median score of the variable with the strongest bridge strengthen.
RESULTS:
Among 31,105 participants from CCWA, 5213 (16.76%) had CircS. In the constructed network, anxiety (edge weights: 0.28), smoking (edge weights: 0.15), drinking (edge weights: 0.10), perceived noise at work (edge weights: 0.08), and implicit health attitude (edge weights: -0.02) were directly related to CircS, with 83.31% of the variance for CircS explained by these neighboring factors. Anxiety was the most central variable (strength centrality: 1.20) in the network and the strongest bridge (bridge strength: 0.84) connecting all domains of variables. A stronger association between anxiety and CircS was observed in the network of participants with more severe anxiety (edge weight: 0.23) than those with less severe anxiety (edge weight: 0.03).
CONCLUSION
Anxiety had the strongest association with CircS and was the central factor with the highest strength centrality, also the bridge with the highest bridge strength in the network.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Adult
;
China
;
Middle Aged
;
Life Style
;
Chronobiology Disorders/epidemiology*
6.Role of miR-140-5p/BCL2L1 in apoptosis and autophagy of HFOB1.19 and effect of Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction.
Tong-Ying CHEN ; Sai FU ; Xiao-Yun LI ; Shu-Hua LIU ; Yi-Fu YANG ; Dong-Sheng YANG ; Yun-Jie ZENG ; Yang-Bo LI ; Dan LUO ; Hong-Xing HUANG ; Lei WAN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(3):583-589
Osteoporosis(OP) is a senile bone disease characterized by an imbalance between bone remodeling and bone formation. Targeting pathogenesis of kidney deficiency, spleen deficiency, and blood stasis, Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction has a significant effect on the treatment of OP by tonifying kidney, invigorating spleen, and activating blood circulation. MicroRNA(miRNA) and the anti-apoptotic protein B-cell lymphoma-2-like protein 1(BCL2L1) are closely related to bone cell metabolism. Therefore, in this study, the binding of miR-140-5p to BCL2L1 was detected by dual luciferase assay and polymerase chain reaction(PCR). After silencing or overexpressing miR-140-5p, the apoptosis, autophagy, and osteogenic function of human fetal osteoblast cell line 1.19(HFOB1.19) were observed by flow cytometry and Western blot. Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction-containing serum was prepared by intragastric administration of Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction in rats. Different concentrations of Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction-containing serum were used to treat HFOB1.19 with or without miR-140-5p mimic. The expression of osteogenic proteins in each group was observed, and the role of miR-140-5p/BCL2L1 in apoptosis and autophagy of HFOB1.19 was studied, along with the effect of Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction on these processes. As indicated by the dual luciferase assay, miR-140-5p bound to BCL2L1. Flow cytometry and Western blot showed that miR-140-5p promoted apoptosis and inhibited autophagy in HFOB1.19. After intervention with high, medium, and low doses of Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction-medicated serum, compared with the miR-140-5p NC group, the expression of osteocalcin(OCN), osteopontin(OPN), Runt-related transcription factor 2(RUNX2), and transforming growth factor beta 1(TGF-β1) decreased in the miR-140-5p mimic group, while the expression of bone morphogenetic protein 2(BMP2) showed no significant difference under high-dose intervention. Therefore, miR-140-5p/BCL2L1 can promote apoptosis and inhibit autophagy in HFOB1.19. Bushen Jianpi Huoxue Decoction can affect the osteogenic effect of miR-140-5p through BMP2.
MicroRNAs/metabolism*
;
Autophagy/drug effects*
;
Apoptosis/drug effects*
;
Humans
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Animals
;
Cell Line
;
bcl-X Protein/metabolism*
;
Osteoblasts/metabolism*
;
Rats
;
Osteoporosis/physiopathology*
;
Male
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
Osteogenesis/drug effects*
7.Therapeutic effect of Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts on chronic unpredictable mild stress-induced depression and insomnia-like behavior in mice.
Hong-Bo CHENG ; Xian LIU ; Hui-Ying SHANG ; Rong GAO ; Wan-Yun DANG ; Ye-Hui GAO ; Cheng-Rong XIAO ; Yue GAO ; Zeng-Chun MA
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(7):1817-1829
This paper aims to study the effect of Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts on chronic unpredictable mild stress(CUMS)-induced depression-like and insomnia behavior models of mice. The CUMS-induced depression-like and insomnia behavior model of mice was established by CUMS treatment for three weeks. The mice were randomly divided into control group, model group, positive drug diazepam group(2 mg·kg~(-1)), as well as low-dose group(1.95 g·kg~(-1)), medium-dose group(3.9 g·kg~(-1)), and high-dose group(7.8 g·kg~(-1)) of Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts, with 18 mice in each group. On the 15th day of modeling, the drug was administered intragastrically once a day for one week. Then, the pentobarbital sodium cooperative righting experiment, open field experiment, and elevated plus maze experiment were carried out, respectively. The contents of neurotransmitters 5-hydroxytryptamine(5-HT) and 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid(5-HIAA) in serum and thalamus of mice, as well as the levels of corticotropin releasing hormone(CRH), adrenocorticotropic hormone(ACTH), and corticosterone(CORT) in serum, were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). The neuron damage in the hippocampus of mice was observed by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining and Nissl staining. Western blot was used to detect the expressions of tryptophan hydroxylase 2(TPH2), serotonin transporter(SERT), monoamine oxidase A(MAOA), five prime repressors under dual repression binding protein 1(Freud1), synaptic plasticity-related proteins [cellular gene FOS(C-FOS), postsynaptic density protein 95(PSD95), synapsin 1(SYN1), and activity-regulated cytoskeleton-associated gene(ARC)], blood-brain barrier(BBB) permeability-related proteins [zonula occludens 1(ZO-1), occludin, and claudin 1], inflammatory factors [NOD-, LRR-and pyrin domain-containing protein 3(NLRP3), apoptosis-associated speck-like protein(ASC), gasdermin D(GSDMD), caspase-3, and caspase-8], and antioxidant factors [nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2(NRF2) and heme oxygenase 1(HO1)] in thalamic tissue of mice. The results indicated that compared with that in the model group, the sleep latency was significantly shortened, and the sleep duration was significantly prolonged in each dose group of Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts. The number of visits to the central area of the open field and the distance and time of visits were significantly increased in each dose group of Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts. In addition, the proportion of distance and time of entering the open arm area of the elevated plus maze was significantly increased in each dose group of Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts. The contents of 5-HT and 5-HIAA in serum and thalamus of mice increased to varying degrees in each dose group of Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts; the contents of CRH, ACTH, and CORT in serum of mice were significantly decreased. The protein expression of TPH2 was significantly increased. The protein expression of MAOA, SERT, and Freud1 was significantly decreased. Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts could also significantly reduce the protein expression of C-FOS but significantly increase the protein expression of PSD95, ARC, and SYN1. They could reduce the pathological damage of the hippocampus in mice and significantly increase the protein expression of ZO-1, occluding, and claudin 1. The protein expression of NLRP3, GSDMD, ASC, caspase-3, and caspase-8 in the thalamic tissue of mice was significantly decreased, and the protein expression of HO1 and NRF2 was significantly increased. In conclusion, Ziziphi Spinosae Semen extracts could effectively improve sleep disorders and depression-like behaviors in CUMS-induced model mice, which may be related to regulating the 5-HT anabolism process and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal(HPA) axis-related hormone levels, reducing pathological damage in the hippocampus, improving synaptic plasticity, repairing BBB integrity, and alleviating inflammatory response and oxidative stress damage.
Animals
;
Ziziphus/chemistry*
;
Mice
;
Male
;
Depression/psychology*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Sleep Initiation and Maintenance Disorders/psychology*
;
Stress, Psychological/complications*
;
Behavior, Animal/drug effects*
;
Humans
;
Disease Models, Animal
8.Research progress on the microecological strategies of root caries management
WU Lijing ; TAO Yiwei ; ZENG Bo ; CAI Yanling
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2025;33(3):244-251
Root caries is a prevalent chronic oral disease with an average global prevalence of 41.5%, characterized by high incidence, low rate of treatment, and high rate of retreatment. Root caries is primarily caused by core microbiome-induced dysbiosis and has multiple risk factors, including gingival recession, root surface exposure, and salivary dysfunction. The traditional preventive measures and treatments such as fluoride, mineralizing agents, and restorative materials, are unable to restore or maintain oral microecological homeostasis. Recent studies have demonstrated that probiotics, prebiotics, synbiotics, and antimicrobial peptides may prevent and treat root caries by reversing dysbiosis. In addition, these biotherapeutics can reduce acid production by acidiferous bacteria, promote alkali production (hydrogen peroxide and ammonia) by alkali-producing bacteria, inhibit biofilm formation, decrease extracellular polysaccharide production, and suppress microbial adhesion and aggregation. It is expected to play an important role in the prevention and control of root caries. This article aims to review oral probiotics (Streptococcus oligofermentans, Streptococcus oralis subsp. dentisani, and Streptococcus salivarius), prebiotics (arginine, nitrates, and synthetic compounds), synbiotics, and antimicrobial peptides (gallic acid-polyphemusin I and LH12) to provide evidence and guidance for root caries management through microecological modulation.
9.Study on the efficacy of automatic-controlled pressure cupping for lumbar disc herniation.
Bo-Chen PENG ; Min-Shan FENG ; Li LI ; Gui-Ju REN ; Yi-Zhen YUAN ; Li-Jie CHANG ; Shu-Ying REN ; Liu ZENG ; Guang-Wei LIU ; Li-Guo ZHU ; Na YUAN
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(11):1133-1138
OBJECTIVE:
To observe the clinical efficacy and safety of automatic pressure-controlled pressure cupping in patients with lumbar disc herniation, and compare it with traditional cupping.
METHODS:
A total of 100 patients diagnosed with lumbar disc herniation from January 2022 to August 2024 were selected and divided into two groups:the automatic pressure-controlled pressure cupping group (controlled pressure cupping group) and the traditional cupping group (control group), 50 cases in each group. In the controlled pressure cupping group, there were 18 males and 32 females, with an age of (51.98±12.69) years;in the control group, there were 16 males and 34 females, with an age of (51.32±12.05) years. The visual analogue scale(VAS), comfort score, and lumbar range of motion were observed before treatment and after the 1st, 3rd, and 7th treatments to evaluate the efficacy and safety.
RESULTS:
All patients completed the treatment intervention, with complete follow-up data collected. No adverse reactions or complications occurred during treatment and follow-up. After the 3rd treatment, the VAS score of the controlled pressure cupping group was (2.38±0.49), which was lower than that of the control group (2.94±0.68), with a statistically significant difference (P<0.001). In the controlled pressure cupping group, the VAS scores after the 1st, 3rd, and 7th treatments were significantly better than those before treatment (P=0.026);in the control group, the VAS scores after the 3rd and 7th treatments were better than those before treatment, but the difference was not statistically significant(P=0.182). Repeated-measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) on VAS scores at different time points in both groups showed that there were statistically significant differences in inter-group, time, and interaction effects (P<0.05). After the 1st treatment, in the controlled pressure cupping group, 0 patients felt comfortable, 42 patients (84%) felt mild discomfort, and 8 patients (16%) felt moderate discomfort;in the control group, 0 patients felt comfortable, 28 patients (56%) felt mild discomfort, and 22 patients(44%) felt moderate discomfort;the difference between the two groups was statistically significant(P=0.005). After the 3rd treatment, in the controlled pressure cupping group, 30 patients(60%) felt comfortable, 20 patients (40%) felt mild discomfort, and 0 patients felt moderate discomfort; in the control group, 9 patients (18%) felt comfortable, 41 patients (82%) felt mild discomfort, and 0 patients felt moderate discomfort;the difference between the two groups was statistically significant(P<0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in comfort between the two groups after the 7th treatment(P>0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in lumbar range of motion between the two groups before and after treatment(P>0.05);compared with before treatment, the lumbar range of motion of both groups after treatment was significantly improved, with statistically significant differences (P<0.001).
CONCLUSION
Automatic pressure-controlled pressure cupping can effectively relieve symptoms in patients with lumbar disc herniation, with excellent safety.
Humans
;
Female
;
Male
;
Intervertebral Disc Displacement/physiopathology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Lumbar Vertebrae/physiopathology*
;
Cupping Therapy/methods*
;
Pressure
;
Aged
;
Treatment Outcome
10.Explainable machine learning model for predicting septic shock in critically sepsis patients based on coagulation indexes: A multicenter cohort study.
Qing-Bo ZENG ; En-Lan PENG ; Ye ZHOU ; Qing-Wei LIN ; Lin-Cui ZHONG ; Long-Ping HE ; Nian-Qing ZHANG ; Jing-Chun SONG
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(6):404-411
PURPOSE:
Septic shock is associated with high mortality and poor outcomes among sepsis patients with coagulopathy. Although traditional statistical methods or machine learning (ML) algorithms have been proposed to predict septic shock, these potential approaches have never been systematically compared. The present work aimed to develop and compare models to predict septic shock among patients with sepsis.
METHODS:
It is a retrospective cohort study based on 484 patients with sepsis who were admitted to our intensive care units between May 2018 and November 2022. Patients from the 908th Hospital of Chinese PLA Logistical Support Force and Nanchang Hongdu Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine were respectively allocated to training (n=311) and validation (n=173) sets. All clinical and laboratory data of sepsis patients characterized by comprehensive coagulation indexes were collected. We developed 5 models based on ML algorithms and 1 model based on a traditional statistical method to predict septic shock in the training cohort. The performance of all models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the net benefit of the models. The validation set was applied to verify the predictive accuracy of the models. This study also used Shapley additive explanations method to assess variable importance and explain the prediction made by a ML algorithm.
RESULTS:
Among all patients, 37.2% experienced septic shock. The characteristic curves of the 6 models ranged from 0.833 to 0.962 and 0.630 to 0.744 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The model with the best prediction performance was based on the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, which was constructed by age, tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, white blood cells, and platelet counts. The SVM model showed good calibration and discrimination and a greater net benefit in decision curve analysis.
CONCLUSION
The SVM algorithm may be superior to other ML and traditional statistical algorithms for predicting septic shock. Physicians can better understand the reliability of the predictive model by Shapley additive explanations value analysis.
Humans
;
Shock, Septic/blood*
;
Machine Learning
;
Male
;
Female
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Sepsis/complications*
;
ROC Curve
;
Cohort Studies
;
Adult
;
Intensive Care Units
;
Algorithms
;
Blood Coagulation
;
Critical Illness


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail