OBJECTIVE: As an age-related neurodegenerative disease, the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) increases with age. Within the framework of traditional Chinese medicine, spleen-kidney deficiency syndrome (SKDS) is recognized as the most frequent MCI subtype. Due to the covert and gradual onset of MCI, in community settings it poses a significant challenge for patients and their families to discern between typical aging and pathological changes. There exists an urgent need to devise a preliminary diagnostic tool designed for community-residing older adults with MCI attributed to SKDS (MCI-SKDS). METHODS: This investigation enrolled 312 elderly individuals diagnosed with MCI, who were randomly distributed into training and test datasets at a 3:1 ratio. Five machine learning methods, including logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), naive Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), and gradient boosting (GB), were used to build a diagnostic prediction model for MCI-SKDS. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F1 score, and area under the curve were used to evaluate model performance. Furthermore, the clinical applicability of the model was evaluated through decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The accuracy, precision, specificity and F1 score of the DT model performed best in the training set (test set), with scores of 0.904 (0.845), 0.875 (0.795), 0.973 (0.875) and 0.973 (0.875). The sensitivity of the training set (test set) of the SVM model performed best among the five models with a score of 0.865 (0.821). The area under the curve of all five models was greater than 0.9 for the training dataset and greater than 0.8 for the test dataset. The DCA of all models showed good clinical application value. The study identified ten indicators that were significant predictors of MCI-SKDS. CONCLUSION The risk prediction index derived from machine learning for the MCI-SKDS prediction model is simple and practical; the model demonstrates good predictive value and clinical applicability, and the DT model had the best performance. Please cite this article as: Ai YT, Zhou S, Wang M, Zheng TY, Hu H, Wang YC, Li YC, Wang XT, Zhou PJ. Development of a machine learning-based risk prediction model for mild cognitive impairment with spleen-kidney deficiency syndrome in the elderly. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(4): 390-397.
Humans ; Cognitive Dysfunction/diagnosis* ; Aged ; Male ; Female ; Machine Learning ; Spleen ; Aged, 80 and over ; Kidney ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional

OBJECTIVE: The results of limited studies on the relationship between environmental pollution and dementia have been contradictory. We analyzed the combined effects of PM _2.5 and smoking on the prevalence of dementia and cognitive impairment in an elderly community-dwelling Chinese population. METHODS: We assessed 24,117 individuals along with the annual average PM _2.5 concentrations from 2012 to 2016. Dementia was confirmed in the baseline survey at a qualified clinical facility, and newly suspected dementia was assessed in 2017, after excluding cases of suspected dementia in 2015. National census data were used to weight the sample data to reflect the entire population in China, with multiple logistic regression performed to analyze the combined effects of PM _2.5 and smoking frequency on dementia and cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Individuals exposed to the highest PM _2.5 concentration and smoked daily were at higher risk of dementia than those in the lowest PM _2.5 concentration group ( OR, 1.603; 95% CI [1.626-1.635], P < 0.0001) and in the nonsmoking group ( OR, 1.248; 95% CI [1.244-1.252]; P < 0.0001). Moderate PM _2.5 exposure and occasional smoking together increased the short-term risk of cognitive impairment. High-level PM _2.5 exposure and smoking were associated with an increased risk of dementia, so more efforts are needed to reduce this risk through environmental protection and antismoking campaigns. CONCLUSION High-level PM _2.5 exposure and smoking were associated with an increased risk of dementia. Lowering the ambient PM _2.5, and smoking cessation are recommended to promote health.
Humans ; Dementia/etiology* ; Male ; Aged ; Female ; Cognitive Dysfunction/etiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Smoking/epidemiology* ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects* ; Prevalence ; Middle Aged

OBJECTIVE: This study examines utilizes the advantages of machine learning algorithms to discern key determinants in prognosticate postoperative circulatory complications (PCCs) for older patients. METHODS: This secondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial involved 1,720 elderly participants in five tertiary hospitals in Beijing, China. Participants aged 60-90 years undergoing major non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia. The primary outcome metric of the study was the occurrence of PCCs, according to the European Society of Cardiology and the European Society of Anaesthesiology diagnostic criteria. The analysis metrics contained 67 candidate variables, including baseline characteristics, laboratory tests, and scale assessments. RESULTS: Our feature selection process identified key variables that significantly impact patient outcomes, including the duration of ICU stay, surgery, and anesthesia; APACHE-II score; intraoperative average heart rate and blood loss; cumulative opioid use during surgery; patient age; VAS-Move-Median score on the 1st to 3rd day; Charlson comorbidity score; volumes of intraoperative plasma, crystalloid, and colloid fluids; cumulative red blood cell transfusion during surgery; and endotracheal intubation duration. Notably, our Random Forest model demonstrated exceptional performance with an accuracy of 0.9872. CONCLUSION We have developed and validated an algorithm for predicting PCCs in elderly patients by identifying key risk factors.
Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology* ; Machine Learning ; Postoperative Complications/etiology* ; Risk Factors ; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ; Secondary Data Analysis

OBJECTIVE: Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma. CONCLUSION Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans ; Asthma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Child ; Adolescent ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Infant ; Cost of Illness ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above. METHODS: This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population (aged 70 and above) in China from 1990 to 2050. It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRI) in China under different scenarios. RESULTS: According to GBD predictions, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average. The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020, but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050. Scenario-based predictions suggest that, under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050. CONCLUSION This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen. The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Male ; Female ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Global Burden of Disease ; Cost of Illness

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence and burden of headache disorders in China and its provinces from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, the number of prevalent cases, prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rates were analyzed by sex, age group, and province for headache disorders and their subtypes (migraine and tension-type headache [TTH]) between 1990 and 2021. Percentage changes during this period were also estimated. RESULTS: In 2021, approximately 426 million individuals in China were affected by headache disorders, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 27,582.61/100,000. The age-standardized DALY rate for all headache disorders was 487.15/100,000. Between 1990 and 2021, the number of prevalent cases increased by 37.78%, while the prevalence of all headache disorders, migraine, and TTH increased by 6.92%, 7.57%, and 7.86%, respectively. The highest prevalence was observed in the 30-34 age group (39,520.60/100,000). Migraine accounted for a larger proportion of DALYs attributable to headache disorders, whereas TTH has a greater impact on its prevalence. In 2021, the highest age-standardized DALY rates for headache disorders were observed in Heilongjiang (617.85/100,000) and Shanghai (542.86/100,000). CONCLUSION The prevalence of headache disorders is increasing in China. Effective health education, improve diagnosis and treatment are essential, particularly for middle-aged working populations and women of childbearing age.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged ; Child ; Headache Disorders/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool ; Cost of Illness ; Infant ; Aged, 80 and over

OBJECTIVE: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034. METHODS: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one. CONCLUSION COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Incidence ; Asia/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of lumbar spondylolysis (LS) and the proportion of spondylolytic spondylolisthesis (SS) in China, and to evaluate the musculoskeletal status of patients with LS and SS. METHODS: Spine Computed Tomography (CT) images were collected from community populations aged 40 and above in a nationwide multi-center project. LS was diagnosed, and SS was graded by an experienced radiologist. Bone mineral density (BMD) and paraspinal muscle parameters were quantified based on CT images. RESULTS: One hundred and seventeen patients of a total of 3,317 individuals were diagnosed with LS, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 3.53%. 63 of the 1,214 males (5.18%) and 54 of the 2,103 females (2.57%) were diagnosed with LS. SS occurred in 64/121 vertebrae (52.89%). BMD was not associated with LS ( P = 0.341). The L5 extensor paraspinal muscle density was higher in the LS group than in the non-LS group. In the LS group, patients with SS had a smaller L5 paraspinal extensor muscle cross-sectional area than those without SS ( P = 0.003). CONCLUSION The prevalence of LS in Chinese adults was 3.53%, with prevalence rates of 5.18% in males and 2.57% in females. Patients with LS have higher muscle density, whereas those with SS have smaller muscle cross-sectional areas at the L5 level.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Adult ; Lumbar Vertebrae/diagnostic imaging* ; Spondylolysis/diagnostic imaging* ; Aged ; Bone Density ; Tomography, X-Ray Computed ; Aged, 80 and over ; Spondylolisthesis/epidemiology* ; East Asian People

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the relationships of white blood cell (WBC) count, platelet (PLT) count, and PLT-to-WBC ratio (PWR) with muscle mass in Chinese older adults. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis involved 4,033 Chinese older adults aged ≥ 65 years from the Healthy Ageing and Biomarkers Cohort Study. Muscle mass and total skeletal muscle mass index (TSMI) were measured by bioelectric impedance analysis. WBC, PLT, and PWR were measured using standard methods. Multivariate linear regression was used to examine the associations of WBC count, PLT count, and PWR with TSMI. RESULTS: High WBC count, PLT count, and PWR were associated with low TSMI, with coefficients of -0.0091 (95% confidence interval [ CI]: -0.0142 to -0.0041), -0.0119 (95% CI: -0.0170 to -0.0068), and -0.0051 (95% CI: -0.0102 to -0.0001). The associations between the three inflammatory indices and TSMI were linear. Stratified analyses indicated that the relationship between inflammatory markers and TSMI was more evident in male participants and in individuals aged < 80 years than in their counterparts. CONCLUSION Elevated WBC count, PLT count, and PWR correlated with muscle mass loss. This study highlights the importance of regular monitoring of inflammatory markers as a potential strategy for the screening and management of sarcopenia in older adults.
Humans ; Aged ; Male ; Female ; China ; Leukocyte Count ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Platelet Count ; Aged, 80 and over ; Muscle, Skeletal/anatomy & histology* ; Independent Living ; Blood Platelets ; Leukocytes ; Sarcopenia

OBJECTIVE: The role of cold spells of different intensities in the economic burden of death is crucial for health adaptation to climate change, especially in a multi-site setting. The objective of the study was to explore the economic burden of mortality attributable to cold spells. METHODS: We performed a two-stage time-series analysis using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach to evaluate the economic impact of mortality related to cold spells of varying lengths and intensities. This analysis employed a case-crossover design, with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) used for analysis. Analysis was stratified according to age, sex, and region of origin. The results of the assessment show that cold spells have an enormous impact on the economic losses of mortality due to climate change and aging. RESULTS: Totally, 8.3% (95% CI: 0.0%, 16.0%) to 13.8% (95% CI: 1.0%, 24.8%) of VSL were ascribed to cold spells, accounting for economic losses of 4.71 (95% CI: 0.34, 8.47) to 11.45 (95% CI: 0.00, 21.00) billion CNY, in the cold season. The population aged over 65 y and females are particularly vulnerable. Economic impacts in warmer regions, such as the southern and subtropical zones, are more extensive than those in the northern and temperate zones. CONCLUSION Customizing cold spell prevention measures for vulnerable populations or regions is vital to alleviating the socioeconomic burden.
China/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Female ; Male ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects* ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Mortality ; Infant ; Child ; Adolescent ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Climate Change ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cost of Illness ; Infant, Newborn