Objective To investigate the risk factors for early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke，to construct a clinical predictive model，and to perform internal validation of this model. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for 739 patients with mild acute ischemic stroke who were admitted to Department of Neurology，Kuntong Hospital of Zunhua，from October 2020 to December 2023，and they were randomly divided into a training set with 534 patients （72.3%） and a validation set with 205 patients （27.7%） at a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed for the training set to determine the risk factors for early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke. A clinical predictive model was constructed，and internal validation was performed in terms of discriminatory ability，calibration，and clinical decision making. A nomogram was plotted. Results The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female sex （OR=1.87，95% CI 1.14~3.09，P=0.014），time window ≤6 hours （OR=3.10，95%CI 1.56~6.19，P=0.001），a baseline NIHSS score of 2 points （OR=3.72，95%CI 1.30~10.61，P=0.014），a baseline NIHSS score of 3 points （OR=4.24，95%CI 1.45~12.35，P=0.008），a TOAST classification of large artery atherosclerosis （OR=3.88，95%CI 2.20~6.83，P<0.001），and the responsible arteries of the basilar artery，the middle cerebral artery，and the internal carotid artery （OR=8.39，95%CI 2.28~30.85，P=0.001； OR=6.22，95%CI 1.78~21.71，P=0.004； OR=5.38，95%CI 1.15~25.13，P=0.032） were independent risk factors for early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke. The clinical predictive model constructed showed a moderate discriminatory ability （AUC>0.7），good calibration （P>0.05） in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test），and good clinical benefits in both the training set and the validation set. Conclusion This clinical predictive model can effectively predict the onset of early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke and guide clinicians to make decisions，and therefore，it holds promise for clinical application.
Nomograms

OBJECTIVES: To explore the value of serum cystatin C (CysC) levels in evaluating renal prognosis in IgA nephropathy (IgAN) patients. METHODS: We retrospectively collected the clinical data of IgAN patients diagnosed by renal biopsy at Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital from January, 2014 to December, 2018. Based on baseline serum CysC levels, the patients were divided into high serum CysC (>1.03 mg/L) group and normal serum CysC (≤1.03 mg/L) group. The composite endpoint for poor renal prognosis was defined as ≥50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and/or progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Lasso regression, multivariate Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to identify the risk factors and compare renal survival rates between the two groups. Smooth curves fitting and threshold effect analysis were used to explore the relationship between serum CysC levels and the outcomes. A nomogram model was constructed and its predictive performance was evaluated using concordance index, calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under curve (AUC). RESULTS: A total of 356 IgAN patients were enrolled, who were followed up for 4.65±0.93 years. The composite endpoint occurred in 74 patients. High serum CysC was identified as an independent risk factor for poor renal prognosis in IgAN (HR=2.142, 95% CI 1.222 to 3.755), and the patients with high serum CysC levels had a lower renal survival rate (Log-rank χ²=47.970, P<0.001). In patients with serum CysC below 2.12 mg/L, a higher CysC level was associated with an increased risk of poor renal prognosis (β=3.487, 95% CI: 2.561-4.413, P<0.001), while above this level, the increase of the risk was not significant (β=0.676, 95% CI: -0.642-1.995, P=0.315). The nomogram model based on serum CysC and 3 other independent risk factors demonstrated good internal validity with a concordance index of 0.873 (95% CI: 0.839-0.907) and an AUC of 0.909 (95% CI: 0.873-0.945). CONCLUSIONS Serum CysC levels are associated with renal prognosis in IgAN patients, and high serum CysC an independent risk factor for poor renal prognosis.
Humans ; Glomerulonephritis, IGA/diagnosis* ; Cystatin C/blood* ; Prognosis ; Risk Factors ; Retrospective Studies ; Glomerular Filtration Rate ; Kidney Failure, Chronic ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Nomograms ; Middle Aged

OBJECTIVES: To explore the risk factors for malnutrition in patients with ulcerative colitis complicated with pyoderma gangrenosum and establish a nutritional risk prediction model for these patients. METHODS: A total of 277 patients with ulcerative colitis complicated with pyoderma gangrenosum treated from 2019 to 2024 were divided into malnutrition group (n=185) and normal nutrition group (n=92) according to whether malnutrition occurred. The data of 25 potential related factors pertaining to general demography, living and eating habits, and disease-related data were compared between the two groups. Lasso regression was used to screen the risk factors, and a nomogram model was established based on the screened factors and its prediction performance was assessed. RESULTS: The patients in the malnutrition group and normal nutrition group showed significant differences in 21 factors including gender, age, education level, BMI, place of residence, course of disease, and SAS language score (P<0.05). Lasso regression analysis identified 6 factors associated with malnutrition in these patients, namely the duration of ulcerative colitis, activity of ulcerative colitis, duration of pyoderma gangrenosum, number of chronic diseases, SAS score, and sleep quality. The nomogram prediction model established based on these 6 factors had an AUC of 0.992 (95% CI: 0.984-1.000) for predicting malnutrition in these patients, and its application in 14 clinical cases achieved an accuracy rate of 100%. CONCLUSIONS The duration of ulcerative colitis, activity of colitis, duration of pyoderma gangrenosum, number of chronic diseases, anxiety, and sleep quality are closely related with malnutrition in patients with ulcerative colitis complicated by pyoderma gangrenosum, and the nomogram prediction model based on these factors can provide assistance for predicting malnutrition in these patients.
Humans ; Colitis, Ulcerative/complications* ; Malnutrition/etiology* ; Risk Factors ; Pyoderma Gangrenosum/complications* ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Nomograms ; Middle Aged ; Nutritional Status ; Regression Analysis

OBJECTIVES: To construct a nomogram for predicting the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) by integrating chest CT radiomics signature that reflects the tumor microenvironment (TME) and clinical parameters of the patients. METHODS: Transcriptomic and CT imaging data from TCGA, GEO and TCIA databases were integrated for weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) of the GEO cohort to identify the immunotherapy-related genes (IRGs) associated with ICIs response. A prognostic model was built using these IRGs in the TCGA cohort to assess immune microenvironment features across different risk groups. Radiomics features were extracted from TCIA lung_3 cohort using PyRadiomics, and 94 features showing strong association with IRGs (|r|>0.4) were selected. A retrospective cohort consisting of 210 aNSCLC patients receiving first-line ICIs at Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital was analyzed and divided into training (n=147) and validation (n=63) groups. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used for radiomic features selection, and logistic regression was applied to construct a combined clinical-radiomic model and nomogram for predicting ICIs therapy response. The performance of the model was evaluated using ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: WGCNA identified 84 IRGs enriched in immune activation pathways. The combined model outperformed individual models in both the training (AUC=0.725, 95% CI: 0.644-0.807) and validation cohorts (AUC=0.706, 95% CI: 0.577-0.836). Calibration curve and decision curve analyses confirmed the clinical efficacy of the nomogram for predicting ICIs therapy response in aNSCLC patients. CONCLUSIONS The genomic-radiomic-clinical multidimensional predictive framework established in this study provides an interpretable biomarker combination and clinical decision-making tool for evaluating ICIs efficacy in aNSCLC, potentially facilitating personalized immunotherapy decision-making.
Humans ; Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/therapy* ; Tumor Microenvironment ; Lung Neoplasms/therapy* ; Immunotherapy ; Tomography, X-Ray Computed ; Nomograms ; Retrospective Studies ; Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors/therapeutic use* ; Prognosis ; Male ; Female ; Radiomics

OBJECTIVES: To establish a prognostic model for primary liver cancer (PLC) using bioinformatics methods. METHODS: Based on the data from 404 patients in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, we constructed a prognostic model integrating the differentially expressed genes, anoikis, and immune-related genes (DAIs) using univariate Cox regression and the LASSO-Cox approach. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier method and receiver-operating characteristic curves, and a nomogram was developed to facilitate its clinical applications. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was performed to explore the associated pathways and relationship between the DAIs and the tumor immune microenvironment, and the half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) of liver cancer drugs was calculated using the "pRRophetic" R package. We also detected the expression of SEMA7A in paired tumor and adjacent tissues from liver cancer patients. RESULTS: We constructed and validated a prognostic model based on 7 DAIs (NR4A3, SEMA7A, IL11, AR, BIRC5, EGF, and SPP1), and obtained consistent results in both the TCGA training cohort and GEO validation cohort (GSE14520), where the patients in the low-risk group were characterized by more favorable clinical outcomes and immune status. By integrating this prognostic signature with clinical information, a composite nomogram was generated. Somatic mutation analysis showed that TTN, TP53, and CTNNB1 mutations accounted for the largest proportion of total mutations, and the patients in the low-risk-low-TMB group had higher survival rate. Drug sensitivity analysis revealed differences in sensitivity to chemotherapeutic agents between high- and low-risk groups and between TP53 mutations and non-mutations. In clinical tissue specimens, SEMA7A expression was significantly higher in liver cancer tissues than in the adjacent tissues. CONCLUSIONS We established a new prognostic model based on DAIs for predicting clinical outcomes and therapeutic response of patients with primary liver cancer.
Humans ; Liver Neoplasms/diagnosis* ; Prognosis ; Anoikis ; Nomograms ; Computational Biology ; Tumor Microenvironment ; Semaphorins/metabolism*

Mitochondria are the convergence point of multiple pathways that trigger programmed cell death (PCD). Mitochondrial-associated PCD (mtPCD) is involved in the pathogenesis of several diseases. However, the role of mtPCD in the prognostic prediction of cancers including non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains to be investigated. Here, 12 mtPCD patterns were analyzed in transcriptomics, genomics, and clinical data collected from 4 datasets containing 977 patients. A risk-score assessment system containing 18 genes was established. We found that NSCLC patients with a high-risk score had a poorer prognosis. A nomogram was constructed by incorporating the risk score with clinical features. The risk score was further associated with clinicopathological information, tumor-mutation frequency, and immunotherapy responses. NSCLC patients with a high risk score had more Treg cells infiltration. However, these patients had higher tumor-mutation burden scores and may be more sensitive to immunotherapy. Moreover, receptor-interacting serine/threonine protein kinase 2 (RIPK2) was selected from mtPCD gene model for validation. We found that RIPK2 exhibited oncogenic function, and its expression level was inversely associated with the overall survival of NSCLC. Taken together, our results indicated the accuracy and practicability of the mtPCD gene model and RIPK2 in predicting the prognosis of NSCLC.
Humans ; Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/pathology* ; Lung Neoplasms/pathology* ; Prognosis ; Male ; Female ; Nomograms ; Middle Aged ; Mitochondria/metabolism* ; Apoptosis/genetics* ; Mutation ; Biomarkers, Tumor/genetics* ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: To explore the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism, and to construct and validate a nomogram predictive model for in-hospital mortality risk. METHODS: Based on the American Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV) databases, the data were collected on patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism from 2001 to 2019, including baseline characteristics, and vital signs, disease scores, laboratory tests within 24 hours of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and interventions. In-hospital mortality was the outcome event. The total samples were divided into training and testing sets in a 7:3 ratio by random sampling. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to verify the impact of all variables on the risk of in-hospital mortality, thereby screen potential influencing factors. Subsequently, a stepwise bi-directional regression method was applied to select factors one by one, leading to the construction of a nomogram prediction model. Collinearity testing was used to demonstrate the absence of strong multicollinearity among the influencing factors in the nomogram prediction model. The discrimination of the nomogram model, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) was evaluated using C-index in the test set. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of various models for in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism. RESULTS: A total of 562 patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism were included, including 393 in the training set and 169 in the testing set. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that 30 factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism. Through stepwise bi-directional regression, 12 variables were ultimately selected, including gender, presence of malignant tumors, body temperature, red cell distribution width (RDW), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum potassium, prothrombin time (PT), 24-hour urine output, mechanical ventilation, vasoactive drugs, warfarin use, and sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC). Collinearity testing indicated no strong multicollinearity among the influencing factors [all variance inflation factor (VIF) > 10]. A nomogram model was constructed using the 12 variables mentioned above. The nomogram model predicted the C-index and its 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism better than SOFA score and sPESI [0.771 (0.725-0.816) vs. 0.579 (0.519-0.639), 0.608 (0.554-0.663)]. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) and its 95%CI of the nomogram model were higher than those of the SOFA score and sPESI [0.811 (0.766-0.857) vs. 0.630 (0.568-0.691), 0.623 (0.566-0.680)]. These findings were consistently replicated in the internal validation of the testing set. In both the training and testing sets, Delong's test showed that the AUC of the nomogram model was significantly higher than the SOFA score and sPESI (both P < 0.05). CONCLUSION The nomogram model demonstrated good predictive effectiveness for the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism, enabling clinicians to predict mortality risk in advance and take timely interventions to reduce mortality.
Humans ; Pulmonary Embolism/mortality* ; Hospital Mortality ; Nomograms ; Sepsis/complications* ; Prognosis ; Risk Factors ; Intensive Care Units ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal machine learning algorithm for predicting post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) within one year following acute stroke, establish a nomogram model based on this algorithm, and perform external validation to achieve accurate prediction of secondary epilepsy. METHODS: A total of 870 acute stroke patients admitted to the emergency department of Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University from June 2019 to June 2023 were enrolled for model development (model group). An external validation cohort of 435 acute stroke patients admitted to the Fifth Hospital of Xiamen during the same period was used to validate the machine learning algorithms and nomogram model. Patients were classified into control and epilepsy groups based on the development of PSE within one year. Clinical and laboratory data, including baseline characteristics, stroke location, vascular status, complications, hematologic parameters, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, were collected for analysis. Nine machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression, CN2 rule induction, K-nearest neighbors, adaptive boosting, random forest, gradient boosting, support vector machine, naive Bayes, and neural network were applied to evaluate predictive performance. The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to identify the optimal algorithm. Logistic regression was used to screen risk factors for PSE, and the top 10 predictors were selected to construct the nomogram model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using the ROC curve in both the model and validation groups. RESULTS: Among the 870 patients in the model group, 29 developed PSE within one year. Among the nine algorithms tested, logistic regression demonstrated the best performance and generalizability, with an AUC of 0.923. Univariate logistic regression identified several risk factors for PSE, including platelet count, white blood cell count, red blood cell count, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), C-reactive protein (CRP), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time, D-dimer, fibrinogen, creatine kinase (CK), creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), serum sodium, lactic acid, anion gap, NIHSS score, brain herniation, periventricular stroke, and carotid artery plaque. Further multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that white blood cell count, HDL, fibrinogen, lactic acid and brain herniation were independent risk factors [odds ratio (OR) were 1.837, 198.039, 47.025, 11.559, 70.722, respectively, all P < 0.05]. In the external validation group, univariate logistic regression analysis showed that platelet count, white blood cell count, CRP, triacylglycerol, APTT, D-dimer, fibrinogen, CK, CK-MB, LDH, NIHSS score, and cerebral herniation were risk factors for PSE one year after acute stroke. Further multiple logistic regression analysis showed that APTT and cerebral herniation were independent predictors (OR were 0.587 and 116.193, respectively, both P < 0.05). The nomogram model, constructed using 10 key variables-brain herniation, periventricular stroke, carotid artery plaque, white blood cell count, triglycerides, thrombin time, D-dimer, serum sodium, lactic acid, and NIHSS score-achieved an AUC of 0.908 in the model group and 0.864 in the external validation group. CONCLUSIONS The logistic regression-based prediction model for epilepsy one year after acute stroke, developed using machine learning algorithms, showed optimal predictive performance. The nomogram model based on the logistic regression-derived predictors showed strong discriminative power and was successfully validated externally, suggesting favorable clinical applicability and generalizability.
Humans ; Machine Learning ; Stroke/complications* ; Nomograms ; Epilepsy/etiology* ; Algorithms ; Male ; Female ; Logistic Models ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Risk Factors ; Bayes Theorem

OBJECTIVE: To develop and compare risk prediction models for in-hospital post-cardiac arrest brain injury (PCABI) in critically ill patients using nomograms and random forest algorithms, aiming to identify the optimal model for early identification of high-risk PCABI patients and providing evidence for precise treatment. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was used to collect the first-time in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) from 2008 to 2019 in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) as the study population, and the patients' age, gender, body mass, health insurance utilization, first vital signs and laboratory tests within 24 hours of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and critical care scores were extracted. Independent influencing factors of PCABI were identified through univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses. The included patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio, and the PCABI risk prediction model was constructed by the nomogram and random forest algorithm, respectively, and the model was evaluated by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA), and after the better model was selected, 179 patients admitted to Tianjin Medical University General Hospital as the external validation cohort for external evaluation were collected by using the same inclusion and exclusion criteria. RESULTS: A total of 1 419 patients with without traumatic brain injury who had their first-time IHCA were enrolled, including 995 in the training cohort (including 176 PCABI and 819 non-PCABI) and 424 in the internal validation cohort (including 74 PCABI and 350 non-PCABI). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age, potassium, urea nitrogen, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation III (APACHE III), and mechanical ventilation were independent influences on the occurrence of PCABI in patients with IHCA (all P < 0.05). Combining the above variables, we constructed a nomogram model and a random forest model for comparison, and the results show that the nomogram model has better predictive efficacy than the random forest model [nomogram model: area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the training cohort = 0.776, with a 95% credible interval (95%CI) of 0.741-0.811; internal validation cohort AUC = 0.776, with a 95%CI of 0.718-0.833; random forest model: AUC = 0.720, with a 95%CI of 0.653-0.787], and they performed similarly in terms of calibration curves, but the nomogram performed better in terms of decision curve analysis (DCA); at the same time, the nomogram model was robust in terms of external validation cohort (external validation cohort AUC = 0.784, 95%CI was 0.692-0.876). CONCLUSIONS A nomogram risk prediction model for the occurrence of PCABI in critically ill patients was successfully constructed, which performs better than the random forest model, helps clinicians to identify the risk of PCABI in critically ill patients at an early stage and provides a theoretical basis for early intervention.
Humans ; Critical Illness ; Retrospective Studies ; Heart Arrest/complications* ; Nomograms ; Brain Injuries/etiology* ; Intensive Care Units ; Algorithms ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; ROC Curve ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; Logistic Models ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting 30-day mortality among elderly patients with sepsis-associated liver dysfunction (SALD), to identify high-risk patients and improve prognosis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database for elderly patients with SALD who were first admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2008 and 2019, including basic characteristics, severity scores, underlying diseases, infection foci, 24-hour vital signs, initial laboratory indicators, 24-hour complications, and prognosis related indicators. Patients were randomly assigned to training group and validation group in a ratio of 7 : 3. The training group used the LASSO regression analysis, as well as multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen for independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. A nomogram prediction model was constructed, and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model, and validate the model using the validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 630 elderly patients with SLAD were included in the study, including 441 in the training group and 189 in the validation group. Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) for training group [odds ratio (OR) = 1.060, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.034-1.086], 24-hour pulse oxygen saturation (SpO₂; OR = 0.876, 95%CI was 0.797-0.962), initial mean corpuscular volume (MCV; OR = 1.043, 95%CI was 1.009-1.077), initial red blood cell distribution width (RDW; OR = 1.237, 95%CI was 1.123-1.362), initial blood glucose (OR = 1.008, 95%CI was 1.004-1.013), and initial aspartate aminotransferase (AST; OR = 1.000, 95%CI was 1.000-1.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients (all P < 0.05). Based on the above variables, a nomogram model was constructed, and the ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model in the training group was 0.757 (95%CI was 0.712-0.803), with a sensitivity of 65.05% and a specificity of 74.90%; the AUC of the model in the validation group was 0.712 (95%CI was 0.631-0.792), with a sensitivity of 58.67% and a specificity of 81.58%. The calibration curves of the training and validation groups show that both the fitted curves were close to the standard curves. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test: the training group (χ ² = 6.729, P = 0.566), the validation group (χ ² = 13.889, P = 0.085), indicating that the model can fit the observed data well. The DCA curve shows that when the threshold probability of the training group was 16% to 94% and the threshold probability of the validation group was 27% to 99%, the net benefit of the model was good. CONCLUSIONS OASIS, 24-hour SpO₂, initial MCV, initial RDW, initial blood glucose and initial AST are independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with SALD. The nomogram based on these six variables demonstrates good predictive performance.
Humans ; Sepsis/complications* ; Retrospective Studies ; Nomograms ; Aged ; Prognosis ; Risk Factors ; Liver Diseases/mortality* ; Intensive Care Units ; ROC Curve ; Male ; Female ; Logistic Models