BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that in 2015, approximately 325 million or 4.4% of the global population were living with chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C infection. In the same year, around 1.34 million died from this disease.

This study aimed to estimate the burden of hepatitis B in the Philippines and to determine the costeffectiveness of possible interventions.

This study utilized the Center for Disease Analysis Foundation’s (CDAF’s) mathematical disease burden model of hepatitis B. Model inputs were collected using literature review, key informant interviews, expert panel interviews, and records review, and were validated through a series of round table discussions with experts.

Results show that in 2017, the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection in the Philippines was 9.7%, equivalent to 10 million infected individuals. Although the model projects a decreasing trend in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections, liver-related mortality and morbidity due to these viruses are expected to rise if the status quo is maintained. Results show that substantial increase in government subsidy for WHO elimination scenarios would be required to achieve cost-effective outcomes.

Hepatitis B remains a huge problem in the Philippines. The HBV modelling exercise reveal that it will be worthwhile and cost-effective to adhere to the WHO elimination targets. A substantial financial investment will be necessary to do so, specifically a significant scale up in the screening, diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of patients with HBV. While this modelling exercise does not yield burden of disease as accurate as a prevalence survey, experts consulted in the round table discussions agreed with the modelling inputs.

BACKGROUND: Without timely and effective rehabilitation, hearing loss may profoundly affect human life quality. China has a large population of hearing-impaired individuals, which imposes a heavy health burden on society. Moreover, this population is projected to increase rapidly owing to China's aging society. METHODS: We used data from a population-representative epidemiological investigation of hearing loss and ear diseases in four Chinese provinces. We estimated the national prevalence using multiple linear regression of the age-group proportions and prevalence in 31 provinces with clustering analysis. We used years lived with disability (YLDs) to analyze the disease burden and forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss by 2060 in China. RESULTS: An estimated 115 million people had moderate-to-complete hearing loss in 2015 across the 31 provinces of China (8.4% of 1.37 billion people). Of these, 85.7% were older than age 50 years (99 million people) and 2.4% were younger than 20 years old (2.8 million people). Of all YLDs attributable to hearing loss, 68.9% were attributable to moderate-to-complete cases. By 2060, a projected 242 million people in China will have moderate-to-complete hearing loss, a 110.0% increase from 2015. CONCLUSIONS The hearing loss prevalence in China is high. Population aging and socioeconomic factors substantially affect the prevalence and severity of hearing loss and the disease burden. The prevalence and severity of hearing loss are unevenly distributed across different provinces. Future public health policies should take these trends and regional variations into account.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Hearing Loss/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Infant ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cost of Illness

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and is associated with a significant Global Burden of Disease (GBD). We analyzed the trends in PD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden in China, and compared them with global data. METHODS: Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for incidence, mortality, DALYs, years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) for PD were extracted from the GBD, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. We describe the epidemiology of PD at global and Chinese levels, analyze trends in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2021 by joinpoint regression models, and decompose PD burden according to population size, age structure, and epidemiological changes. RESULTS: GBD 2021 estimated 508,378 (95% UI: 430,499-592,748) incident cases of PD, 92,035 (95% UI: 75,908-108,133) deaths, and 2,159,514 (95% UI: 1,826,196-2,521,344) DALYs in China, with the higher age-standardized rate (ASR) in incidence, mortality and DALYs than the global levels. The DALY burden of PD in China increased slightly from 1990 to 2021, consistent with the global upward trend. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated that the ASR of incidence in China increased faster than the global average, while the ASR of mortality decreased, with the fastest decline in 2004-2014. Decomposition analysis revealed that men and the middle sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile (32.82%) were responsible for the most significant DALYs, whose changes were primarily driven by population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS The burden of PD showed an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2021, which was primarily driven by population growth and aging. This study highlights the significant challenges in controlling and managing PD, including the increase in cases and gender differences, which may provide guidance for comprehensive strategies to address the changing profiles of PD in China.
Humans ; Parkinson Disease/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Male ; Incidence ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cost of Illness ; Adolescent ; Pattern Analysis, Machine

OBJECTIVE: Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma. CONCLUSION Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans ; Asthma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Child ; Adolescent ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Infant ; Cost of Illness ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above. METHODS: This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population (aged 70 and above) in China from 1990 to 2050. It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRI) in China under different scenarios. RESULTS: According to GBD predictions, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average. The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020, but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050. Scenario-based predictions suggest that, under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050. CONCLUSION This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen. The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Male ; Female ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Global Burden of Disease ; Cost of Illness

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence and burden of headache disorders in China and its provinces from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, the number of prevalent cases, prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rates were analyzed by sex, age group, and province for headache disorders and their subtypes (migraine and tension-type headache [TTH]) between 1990 and 2021. Percentage changes during this period were also estimated. RESULTS: In 2021, approximately 426 million individuals in China were affected by headache disorders, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 27,582.61/100,000. The age-standardized DALY rate for all headache disorders was 487.15/100,000. Between 1990 and 2021, the number of prevalent cases increased by 37.78%, while the prevalence of all headache disorders, migraine, and TTH increased by 6.92%, 7.57%, and 7.86%, respectively. The highest prevalence was observed in the 30-34 age group (39,520.60/100,000). Migraine accounted for a larger proportion of DALYs attributable to headache disorders, whereas TTH has a greater impact on its prevalence. In 2021, the highest age-standardized DALY rates for headache disorders were observed in Heilongjiang (617.85/100,000) and Shanghai (542.86/100,000). CONCLUSION The prevalence of headache disorders is increasing in China. Effective health education, improve diagnosis and treatment are essential, particularly for middle-aged working populations and women of childbearing age.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged ; Child ; Headache Disorders/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool ; Cost of Illness ; Infant ; Aged, 80 and over

OBJECTIVE: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034. METHODS: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one. CONCLUSION COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Incidence ; Asia/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: The role of cold spells of different intensities in the economic burden of death is crucial for health adaptation to climate change, especially in a multi-site setting. The objective of the study was to explore the economic burden of mortality attributable to cold spells. METHODS: We performed a two-stage time-series analysis using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach to evaluate the economic impact of mortality related to cold spells of varying lengths and intensities. This analysis employed a case-crossover design, with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) used for analysis. Analysis was stratified according to age, sex, and region of origin. The results of the assessment show that cold spells have an enormous impact on the economic losses of mortality due to climate change and aging. RESULTS: Totally, 8.3% (95% CI: 0.0%, 16.0%) to 13.8% (95% CI: 1.0%, 24.8%) of VSL were ascribed to cold spells, accounting for economic losses of 4.71 (95% CI: 0.34, 8.47) to 11.45 (95% CI: 0.00, 21.00) billion CNY, in the cold season. The population aged over 65 y and females are particularly vulnerable. Economic impacts in warmer regions, such as the southern and subtropical zones, are more extensive than those in the northern and temperate zones. CONCLUSION Customizing cold spell prevention measures for vulnerable populations or regions is vital to alleviating the socioeconomic burden.
China/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Female ; Male ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects* ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Mortality ; Infant ; Child ; Adolescent ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Climate Change ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cost of Illness ; Infant, Newborn

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the current status and temporal trends of the disease burden of spinal fractures in China from 1990 to 2021 based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), aiming to provide evidence for developing prevention and treatment strategies. METHODS: Epidemiological data on spinal fractures in China, the United States of America (USA), and globally were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Joinpoint regression models were applied to analyze temporal trends. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were calculated, with comparisons of gender- and age-group disparities. RESULTS: In 2021, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs of spinal fractures in China increased by 52.28%, 113.68%, and 106.98%, respectively, compared to 1990. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates rose by 11.80%, 16.11%, and 14.79%, respectively. The disease burden escalated significantly with age, peaking in individuals aged ≥75 years. Males exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and DALYs rates than females. Comparative analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate in China (4.19/100 000) was lower than that in globally (6.62/100 000) and USA (15.92/100 000). However, China showed an upward trend [annual average percentage change (AAPC)=0.19%], contrasting with a declining trend in the USA (AAPC=-0.08%). CONCLUSION The escalating disease burden of spinal fractures in China is closely linked to population aging, gender disparities, and insufficient targeted prevention policies. Future strategies should integrate age- and gender-specific interventions, including strengthened osteoporosis prevention, trauma risk control, and big data-driven precision measures, to mitigate this burden.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Spinal Fractures/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged, 80 and over ; United States/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child

OBJECTIVE:  To estimate the population attributable disease burden (PAD) of low bone mineral density (LBMD) related fractures (fragility fractures) among Chinese people over 50 years old from 1990 to 2023, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023), and to provide evidence for prevention strategies and health resource allocation. METHODS:   Based on the GBD 2023, the LBMD summary exposure values (SEV), fracture incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and LBMD-related falls YLDs of Chinese people over 50 years old from 1990 to 2023 were extracted. PAD was calculated with population attributable fraction (PAF), and an entropy-weight method was applied to evaluate the contribution of individual fracture sites. Temporal trends and sex differences were examined with Joinpoint regression. RESULTS:  From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized SEV of LBMD in people over 50 years old showed an overall decline [average annual percent change (AAPC)=-0.564%]. Age-standardized fracture incidence, fracture YLDs rate, and LBMD-related falls YLDs rate all exhibited W-shaped upward trends (AAPC=1.045%, 0.296%, and 0.724%, respectively). PAF-based estimates indicated that LBMD-attributable fracture incidence likewise increased in a "W-shaped" manner (AAPC=0.558%), whereas the corresponding YLDs rate showed an overall W-shaped decline (AAPC=-0.193%). In international comparison, China and the global average displayed broadly concordant directions of change, with greater volatility in China and a progressive narrowing of the gap after 2015. Regarding sex differences, fracture YLDs rates were consistently higher in the males, whereas the other burden indicators were higher in the females; the temporal patterns were similar in both sexes. Entropy weight method identified hip fractures as contributing most to incidence (weight 0.133), and pelvic fractures as the largest contributor to YLDs rate (weight 0.115). CONCLUSION Since 1990, the LBMD attributable fracture burden in China's older population has risen, with female and hip or pelvic fractures bearing the heaviest load. Strengthened osteoporosis screening, improved insurance coverage, and targeted health education are urgently needed to curb further increases in disease burden.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Female ; Male ; Bone Density ; Aged ; Incidence ; Osteoporotic Fractures/epidemiology* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Accidental Falls/statistics & numerical data* ; Cost of Illness ; Global Burden of Disease ; Osteoporosis/complications* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology*