Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2020;31(3):10-13

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2020.03.003

Analysis of models of infectious disease dynamics of COVID-19

Yashu LIU 1 ; Qiun WU 1 ; Yihan LU 2 ; Yuhong ZHAO 1

Affiliations

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Keywords

COVID-19; New coronavirus; Prediction models; Prevention strategies

Country

China

Language

Chinese

Abstract

Objectives To analyze the studies about predicting COVID-19 by math models, to provide evidences and experiences to reduce the hazard of COVID-19. Methods PubMed, CNKI and other databases were searched for studies involving math models of COVID-19, and the studies were compared with each other and the real data. Results A total of 21 publications were included. SIR, SEIR and other models were used to predict the prevalence and evaluate the interventions. The results were predicted by SEIR+CAQ model were the closest to the actual situation. And the control measures have effectively restrained COVID-19. Conclusion Characteristics of COVID-19 and prevention measures should be concerned, when predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19.