Chinese Circulation Journal 2017;32(8):761-765
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-3614.2017.08.008
The Derivation and Validation of a Scoring System for Clinical Prognosis in Patients Releiving Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy
Shengwen YANG ; Zhimin LIU ; Shangyu LIU ; Ligang DING ; Keping CHEN ; Wei HUA ; Shu ZHANG
Keywords
Cardiac resynchronization therapy; Risk assessment; Prognosis
Country
China
Language
Chinese
Abstract
Objective: To create and validate a scoring system for predicting clinical prognosis in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Methods: A cohort of 367 consecutive patients received CRT in our hospital from 2010-01 to 2015-12 were enrolled. The endpoint follow-up events were all-cause death including heart transplantation and heart failure re-admission. The patients were randomly categorized into 2 groups: Modeling group, to develop HEAL scoring system,n=300 and Veriifcation group, to validate HEAL model,n=67. HEAL system was established by Cox proportional hazards regression model, discrimination between HEAL and EARRN scoring systems was evaluated by AUC of ROC, HEAL calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and clinical endpoint evaluation by 2 scoring systems were compared by Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Modeling group analysis indicated that hs-CRP (HR=1.137, 95% CI 1.072-1.205,P<0.001), big endothelin-1 (HR=1.934, 95% CI 1.066-3.507,P=0.03), left atrial diameter (HR=1.045, 95% CI 1.007-1.084,P=0.02) and NYHA IV (HR=2.583, 95% CI 1.331-5.013,P=0.005) were the independent risk factors of adverse prognosis in CRT patients. Based on β partial regression coefifcient, HEAL scoring system was established to classify the patient's risk levels: low risk<4, moderate risk 4-10 and high risk>10. AUC for risk classification in Modeling group and Verification group were 0.719(95% CI 0.629-0.809) and 0.708 (95% CI 0.539-0.878), HEAL can well distinguish clinical prognosis in patients at different risk levels (log-rank test showed in Modeling groupP<0.001 and in Veriifcation groupP=0.002); Hosmer-Lemeshow test presented good calibration,P=0.952. All 367 patients were respectively evaluated by HEAL and EARRN scoring systems, HEAL had the better discrimination than EARRN as AUC 0.763 (95% CI 0.692-0.833) vs AUC 0.602 (95% CI 0.517-0.687). Conclusion: HEAL scoring system can effectively predict adverse prognosis in CRT patients, it had the better discrimination than EARRN system and was valuable to distinguish high risk patients in clinical practice.
备案号: 11010502037788, 京ICP备10218182号-8)