Chinese Health Economics 2014;(1):29-31

doi:10.7664/CHE20140108

The Prospective and Simulation on the Financing Amount of Basic Medical Insurance in Liaoning

Li GUAN ; Yejing DONG

Keywords

basic medical insurance; total expenditure on health; exponential smoothing; system dynamics; modeling; Liaoning

Country

China

Language

Chinese

Abstract

Objective: Using system dynamics to provide prospective and simulation of double exponential smoothing on Basic Medical Insurance Fund and related indexes from 2013-2022 in Liaoning. Methods: Using the post testing to select the best value of αand projecting the whole procedure of forecast into the software of system dynamics to get the prospective result. Results: In ending of simulation, the increase of fund and other objects will reach about 2 times as much as those in 2013 , and out-of-pocket in total expenditure on health will be declined greatly. Conclusion: The economy of province is developing fast while Basic Medical Insurance is in relatively lower level.