China Cancer 2025;34(2):81-88
doi:10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.02.A001
Analysis of Global and Regional Lifetime Risk of Develo-ping and Dying from Lung Cancer in 2022
Zhen GUO 1 ; Wei WANG ; Hong WANG ; Hongwei LIU ; Yin LIU ; Lijuan CHEN ; Shaokai ZHANG ; Qiong CHEN
Affiliations
Keywords
lung cancer; lifetime risk of disease; lifetime risk of death; the whole world
Country
China
Language
Chinese
Abstract
[Purpose]To analyze the lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer at global and regional levels.[Methods]Data of lung cancer incidence and mortality were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2022 and the population and all-cause mortality data were obtained from the United Nations.The lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer globally and across different regions was estimated by multiple primary adjustment method.[Results]The global lifetime risk of developing lung cancer was 3.59%[95%confidence interval(CI):3.58%~3.59%],ranking third among all cancer types.There were significant gender and regional differences in lifetime risk values.The risk for male was 4.43%(95%CI:4.42%~4.44%),which was higher than that for female(2.71%,95%CI:2.70%~2.72%),with a male-to-female ratio of 1.63.Among regions with varying human development index(HDI)levels,the risk increased with HDI levels,in very high HDI re-gions risk was 5.36%(95%CI:5.34%~5.37%),while in low HDI regions the risk was 0.34%(95%CI:0.33%~0.34%).Among the 20 global regions,East Asia had the highest lifetime risk of 7.53%(95%CI:7.52%~7.55%),while West Africa had the lowest risk of 0.16%(95%CI:0.16%~0.17%).The global lifetime risk of dying from lung cancer was 2.78%(95%CI:2.78%~2.78%),ranking the first among all cancer types.There were significant sex and regional differ-ences in lifetime death risk values.The risk for male was 3.64%(95%CI:3.63%~3.64%),which was higher than that for female(1.89%,95%CI:1.89%~1.90%),with a male-to-female ratio of 1.93.Among regions with varying HDI levels,the risk increased with HDI levels,in very high HDI re-gions the risk was 3.98%(95%CI:3.97%~3.99%),while in low HDI regions the risk was 0.31%(95%CI:0.31%~0.31%).Among the 20 global regions,the Federated States of Micronesia/Poly-nesia had the highest death risk of 5.80%(95%CI:4.98%~6.62%),while West Africa had the lowest risk of 0.15%(95%CI:0.15%~0.16%).The lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer in China was 7.54%(95%CI:7.52%~7.56%)and 5.88%(95%CI:5.87%~5.90%),respec-tively,both ranking the first among all cancer types.[Conclusion]The lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer remains high globally and across different regions,with a particularly heavy burden in high-HDI areas.In China,both the lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer are higher than the global average.This highlights the need for continued enhance-ment of comprehensive prevention and control measures,including addressing lung cancer-related risk factors,as well as improving screening,early diagnosis,and treatment efforts to reduce the lung cancer burden.
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