Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2018;41(5):413-417

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2157.2018.05.010

Time series analysis on incidence trend of dysentery in Shanxi Province

Ling HAN 1 ; Long YAN ; Yu HAO ; Keerqinfu ; Hong WANG ; Juan HE

Affiliations

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Keywords

time series; model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average; dysentery; predic-tion

Country

China

Language

Chinese

Abstract

Objective To investigate the feasibility and applicability of model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)in analysis and prediction on dysentery morbidity in Shanxi Prov-ince,and to provide decision basis for preventing and controlling dysentery.Methods SARIMA model was established based on monthly morbidity of dysentery from Jan.2004 to Dec.2013 by using R3.3.1 software,and the predictive effect of the model was verified with monthly morbidity of dysentery in 2014. Results SARIMA model(2,1,2)(1,1,1)12fitted very well with the monthly dysentery morbidity in Shanxi Province,and the residuals of the model were white noise sequence.The relative error between predicted and actual values at a range from 0.909% to 35.575% and average relative error was 13.399%.Conclusion SARIMA model can well reflect the incidence trend of dysentery and predict the morbidity of dysentery in a short term in Shanxi Province.