Seasonal characteristics and time series analysis of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019
10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2021.20817
- VernacularTitle:2005—2019年戊型肝炎季节性流行特征及时间序列分析
- Author:
Zheng-bin XIAO
1
;
Kai-yun CHEN
1
;
Hong REN
2
;
Lin WANG
3
;
Qi-chao PAN
2
Author Information
1. Department of Epidemiology， School of Public Health， Fudan University， Shanghai 200032， China
2. Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention，Shanghai 200336，China
3. Yangpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Shanghai 200093， China
- Publication Type:Research Article
- Keywords:
hepatitis E;
seasonality;
time series;
SARIMA model
- From:
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
2021;33(10):923-928
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the seasonal characteristics and incidence trend of hepatitis E from 2005 to 2019 in Shanghai， and provide references for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis E. Methods:The seasonal characteristics of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 were analyzed by circular distribution method. The incidence trend of hepatitis E was analyzed by ARIMA （autoregressive moving average model）. Results:The peak period of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 was from November 17 to June 9， and the peak day was on February 27. The time series shows that the optimal model is SARIMA（0，1，1）×（0，1，1）12， Akaike information criterion（AIC） and Schwartz Bayesian information criterion （SBC） are 1 243.799 and 1 250.035 respectively， and the residual is white noise sequence. The mean absolute percentage error（MAPE）between the predicted value， and the actual value of this model is 20.253%. The forecast shows a slight decrease in the number of cases of hepatitis E in 2020-2021 compared with 2019， but it is still at a high level. Conclusion:The incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai shows a solid seasonal characteristic. Health education and prevention/control measures should be conducted well before the epidemic peak. Based on the short-term prediction， the incidence of hepatitis E would still be high. Effective prevention and control strategies should be developed， and active measures should be taken.
