Predictive Value of ABIC Score in Short-term Survival of Patients With HBV-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure
10.3969/j.issn.1008-7125.2019.07.006
- Author:
Chunrong DENG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Critical Care Medicine, Xi'an Third Hospital
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
ABIC Score;
Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure;
Hepatitis B virus;
Prognosis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Gastroenterology
2019;24(7):411-415
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Background: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is the major type of liver failure in China. Although there are many models for predicting the prognosis of patients with ACLF, yet they all have certain limitations. Therefore, more accurate models need to be found. Aims: To investigate the value of age-bilirubin-INR-creatinine (ABIC) score for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with HBV-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF). Methods: The clinical data of 289 patients with HBV-ACLF admitted to Xi'an Third Hospital and Hemei General Hospital of Henan Coal Chemical Industry Group from Oct. 2013 to Oct. 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the 28-day survival, the patients were divided into survival group (193 cases) and death group (96 cases), and the predictive value of ABIC score and other conventional prognostic models for the 28-day mortality were evaluated. Furthermore, patients were re-grouped by using the cut-off value of ABIC score determined by ROC curve, and their short-term survival was compared. Results: The score of all the six prognostic models evaluated were significantly lower in survival group than in death group (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazard model revealed that cirrhosis on admission (RR=1.562), high blood urea nitrogen (RR=1.048), high CLIF-SOFA score (RR=1.380), high ABIC score (RR=1.317), high MELD score (RR=1.094) and high iMELD score (RR=1.275) were the independent risk factors for 28-day mortality. The performance of ABIC score for predicting 28-day mortality was superior to other conventional prognostic models with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.784. When re-grouped according to the cut-off value of ABIC score (9.43), Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the short-term survival of patients in ABIC score <9.43 group was longer than those in ABIC score ≥9.43 group (P<0.05). Conclusions: ABIC score has certain value in predicting 28-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. Those with ABIC score ≥9.43 are high risk population for short-term mortality.
