Application of time series analysis and model construction in the prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease
10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2018.09.036
- VernacularTitle:时间序列分析及模型构建在预测手足口病方面的应用
- Author:
Ping HUANG
1
;
Huifen FENG
;
Bin WANG
;
Jing ZHAO
Author Information
1. 郑州大学第五附属医院消化内科 郑州 450052
- Keywords:
hand-foot-mouth disease;
time series analysis;
seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model
- From:
The Journal of Practical Medicine
2018;34(9):1554-1556
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the value of time series analysis and model construction in predicting hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD). Methods By analyzing the data of HFMD in a hospital in Zhengzhou from January 2009 to October 2016,a seasonal autoregressive moving average(ARMA)model was established according to the time series analysis. At the same time ,the model was evaluated to determine the fitting precision between the measured values and fitted values. Results After the parameter exploration ,the best fitting model was finally determined as ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12,with a stationary R2 of 0.734,a statistic value of Ljung-Box Q(18)of 10.497,P Value of 0.725. The two curves of the fitted values and the measured values were close,suggesting that the model has good fitting ability. Conclusion Time series analysis and the seasonal ARMA model have good predictive ability in predicting HFMD.
