Estimation of excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged ＜5 years in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.01.022
- VernacularTitle:应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻相关超额病例数
- Author:
Lei JIA
1
;
Xiaoli WANG
;
Shuangsheng WU
;
Jianxin MA
;
Hongjun LI
;
Zhiyong GAO
;
Quanyi WANG
Author Information
1. 100013,北京市疾病预防控制中心北京市预防医学研究中心传染病地方病控制所
- Keywords:
Viral diarrheal;
Adjusted Serfling regression model;
Excess case number
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2016;37(1):102-105
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To estimate the excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged ＜5 years in Beijing from 1 January 2011 to 23 May 2015.Methods The excess numbers of diarrheal cases among the children aged ＜5 years were estimated by using weekly outpatient visit data from two children' s hospital in Beijing and adjusted Serfling regression model.Results The incidence peaks of viral diarrhea were during 8th-10th week and 40th-42nd week in 2011,40th-4th week in 2012,43rd-49th week in 2013 and 45th week in 2014 to 11th week in 2015 respectively.The excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged ＜5 years in the two children's hospital were 911(95％CI:261-1 561),1 998(95％CI:1 250-2 746),1 645 (95％CI:891-2 397),2 806(95％CI:1 938-3 674) and 1 822(95％ CI:614-3 031) respectively,accounting for 40.38％ (95％ CI:11.57％-69.19％),44.21％(95％CI:27.66％-60.77％),45.08％(95％CI:24.42％-65.69％),60.87％ (95％CI:42.04％-79.70％) and 66.62％ (95％CI:22.45％-110.82％) of total outpatient visits due to diarrhea during 2011-2015,respectively.Totally,the excess number of viral diarrheal cases among children aged ＜5 years in Beijing was estimated to be 18 731(95％CI:10 106-27 354) from 2011 to 23 May 2015.Conclusions Winter is the season of viral diarrhea for children aged ＜5 years.The adjusted Serfling regression model analysis suggested that close attention should be paid to the etiologic variation of viruses causing acute gastroenteritis,especially the etiologic variation of norovirus.
