Burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China from 1994 to 2023 and an age-period-cohort study
- VernacularTitle:1994—2023年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病负担及年龄-时期-队列研究
- Author:
Yuan ZHANG
1
;
Weiwei MIAO
1
;
Liang MA
1
;
Jianlong LI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Respiratory Medicine, The First Hospital of Harbin, Harbin, 150010, P. R. China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease;
age-period-cohort;
disease burden;
change trend;
risk factors;
China
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2026;33(10):1617-1625
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To systematically analyze the trend of incidence, mortality and disease burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China from 1994 to 2023, reveal the influence of age-period-cohort factors on COPD in China and the attribution characteristics of risk factors, and provide empirical basis for formulating precise prevention and control strategies. Methods The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database was used to extract the data of the whole population, gender and age groups of COPD in China from 1994 to 2023. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the standardized rate. The age-period-cohort model was adopted to quantify its impacts on the incidence and mortality of COPD. It also analyzed the attributable effects as well as temporal trend characteristics of seven GBD level-3 risk factors (including smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, occupational exposure, etc.) in Chinese population in 1994 and 2023 on the standardized mortality rate and standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of COPD. Results From 1994 to 2023, the incidence and mortality of COPD in China showed an upward trend, but the standardized incidence [AAPC=−1.16%, 95%CI (−1.18, −1.14), P<0.001] and standardized mortality [AAPC=−2.87%, 95%CI (−3.02, −2.73), P<0.001] decreased significantly, and the decline rate of standardized incidence in females (AAPC=−1.29%) was slightly higher than that in males (AAPC=−1.04%). The decline rate of standardized mortality in males (AAPC=−3.65%) was higher than that in females (AAPC=−1.94%). The age-period-cohort model revealed a nonlinear increase in the age effect, a graded decline in the cohort effect, and a significant period effect on mortality and male morbidity (P<0.001). In terms of attribution of risk factors, the top three attribution risks of the whole population in 2023 were still smoking, particulate matter pollution and second-hand smoke. Compared with 1994, the attribution of environmental ozone pollution, second-hand smoke, high temperature, smoking and occupational particulate matter/gas/smoke exposure increased, and the attribution of particulate matter pollution decreased. Conclusion From 1994 to 2023, the overall disease burden of COPD in China shows a downward trend. Age and cohort are the core driving factors of the disease, and period factors have a more significant impact on death. The changes in the attribution structure suggest that while consolidating the effectiveness of particulate matter pollution control, it is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control strategies of tobacco control, coordinated emission reduction of ozone and multiple pollutants, extreme temperature protection and protection of key occupational groups, so as to continuously reduce the disease burden of COPD.
