SPATIOTEMPORAL MONITORING AND ARIMA MODELING OF BLATTELLA GERMANICA POPULATIONS IN NANJING, CHINA (2017-2024)
10.3969/j.issn.1005-0507.2026.03.009
- VernacularTitle:南京市2017—2024年德国小蠊监测分析和ARIMA模型应用
- Author:
Jian-jun XIA
1
;
Pu-min ZHOU
2
;
Yan ZHANG
3
;
Bing-dong SONG
3
;
Lu-yao SUN
1
;
Shou-gang ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. Nanjing Municipal for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China; School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
2. Nanjing Municipal for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China; School of Public Health, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221004, China
3. Nanjing Municipal for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Blattella germanica;
Autoregressive integrated moving average;
Surveillance and analysis;
Insecticide resistance
- From:
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica
2026;33(3):210-215
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective Using cockroach surveillance data in Nanjing from 2017 to 2024, we have descriptively analyzed population characteristics and changes in insecticide resistance among Blattella germanica, and have established a seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict monthly population densities in Nanjing spanning the year 2025. Methods B. germanica density and infestation rate were monitored using the sticky trap method, and insecticide resistance was assessed using the residual contact method. Our ARIMA model was applied to fit and estimate cockroach density fluctuations over time. Results From 2017 to 2024, B. germanica accounted for 94.90% of all cockroach specimens captured in Nanjing, with an average density of 0.37 cockroaches per trap and an average infestation rate of 5.56%. Significant differences in density and infestation rate were observed among different habitats (P＜0.001). Significant downward annual trends in both density and infestation rate were found (P＜0.05). ARIMA was found to be the optimal model for fitting the density data from 2017 to 2024 (0, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)1 2. Conclusions From 2017 to 2024, B. germanica was overwhelmingly the dominant cockroach species in Nanjing, with both its density and infestation rate declining annually. A positive correlation was observed between the amount and proportion of insecticide use and the development of insecticide resistance (P＜0.05). The established model demonstrated good performance in predicting monthly B. germanica densities in Nanjing throughout 2025, providing a valuable reference for future surveillance and control efforts.
