Study on the impact of meteorological factors on influenza-like illness cases in Anhui Province based on the generalized additive model
10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2026.08.015
- VernacularTitle:基于广义相加模型的气象因素对安徽省流感样病例的影响研究
- Author:
Meng ZHU
1
;
Jiabing WU
2
;
Lei GONG
1
;
Yuanfang SUN
1
;
Wei SUN
3
;
Biao ZHU
1
;
Shuwen LI
1
;
Qingqing ZHU
1
Author Information
1. Institute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control， Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
2. Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Hefei 230601
3. Anhui Provincial Public Meteorological Service Center， Public Weather Service Section， Hefei 230031
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
influenza;
influenza-like illness;
meteorological factors;
generalized additive model;
lag effect
- From:
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui
2026;61(8):1446-1452
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo explore the impact of meteorological factors on influenza-like illness （ILI） cases in Anhui Province. MethodsILI surveillance data of Anhui Province from 2016 to 2023 were collected from the “China Influenza Surveillance Information System”， and meteorological data were obtained from Anhui Meteorological Center. R 4.2.1 was used to conduct Spearman rank correlation analysis between ILI cases and meteorological factors. A generalized additive model （GAM） was established to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on ILI cases. ResultsCorrelation analysis and GAM analysis showed that the average temperature and average relative humidity with a one-week lag had significant non-linear effects on ILI （P<0.05）. When the weekly average temperature was below 14 ℃， the number of ILI cases gradually increased as the temperature decreased. When the weekly average relative humidity was below 65%， the number of ILI cases gradually increased as the weekly average relative humidity decreased. The changes in ILI among the age groups 5-14， 15-24 and 25-59 years were influenced by meteorological factors， exhibiting a nonlinear relationship with weekly average temperature or weekly average relative humidity. ConclusionWeekly average temperature and weekly average relative humidity are the main factors affecting ILI in Anhui Province， and there is a lag effect， which can provide a reference for influenza surveillance and early warning.
