Epidemiological characteristics and ARIMA model-based prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus comorbidity in Wuhan in 2020–2024
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.05.008
- VernacularTitle:2020—2024年武汉市肺结核合并糖尿病的流行特征及ARIMA模型预测
- Author:
Tiantian WANG
1
;
Zefang ZHANG
2
;
Haozhe ZHANG
1
;
Xiaojun WANG
1
;
Yuehua LI
1
;
Yan ZHOU
1
;
Jun WU
1
;
Gang WU
1
Author Information
1. Department of Tuberculosis Control, Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei 430030, China
2. Public Health Department, Wuhan Third Hospital, Wuhan , Hubei 430061, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Mushroom;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Spatial correlation
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(5):36-40
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the registration rate and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis complicated with diabetes mellitus (PTB-DM) in Wuhan from 2020 to 2024, and to provide scientific evidence for formulating PTB-DM prevention and control policies. Methods PTB-DM case data in Wuhan (2020-2024) were collected through the Infectious Disease Registration and Management Information System. Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of registration rates of PTB-DM among the general population and across different regions, genders, and age groups. ARIMA model was used to predict the short-term prevalence of PTB-DM. Results Among 26275 pulmonary tuberculosis cases registered in Wuhan (2020-2024), 2669 cases (10.16%) were PTB-DM. The average annual registration rate of PTB-DM was 3.96/100,000, increasing from 2.74/100,000 in 2020 to 5.40/100,000 in 2024 (APC=19.07%, 95% CI:12.99%-26.92%, P<0.001). The PTB-DM registration rates showed an upward trend across different regions, genders, and age groups in Wuhan, with higher registration rates observed in near urban area, males, and individuals aged 60~64 and 65 years and above (χ2=99.566, P<0.001; χ2=781.891, P<0.001; χ2=2211.930, P<0.001). ARIMA model predicted that the prevalence of PTB-DM in Wuhan would remain stable and fluctuating in the short time. Conclusion PTB-DM registration rate in Wuhan increases from 2020 to 2024. Near urban area, males, and elderly populations are high risk groups. Future efforts should focus on strengthening the prevention and control of PTB-DM among these populations.
