A comparative study of three models in predicting human brucellosis in mainland China
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.05.004
- VernacularTitle:三种模型在中国大陆地区人间布鲁氏菌病预测中的比较研究
- Author:
Ruidong QU
1
;
Qi ZHANG
1
;
Danjie ZHANG
1
;
Zitong ZHENG
1
;
Yuanyong XU
1
;
Qiulan CHEN
2
;
Wenyi ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang , Liaoning 110000, China;Chinese People's Liberation Army Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China
2. National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Brucella;
Brucellosis;
Incidence rate;
Time series;
LightGBM
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(5):17-21
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct three models, SARIMA, XGBoost, and LightGBM, to predict the future trend of human brucellosis in mainland China, and to provide a basis for formulating policies for the prevention and control of brucellosis. Methods Monthly case data of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2014 to 2023 were collected. The SARIMA model was constructed using R 4.4.1. The XGBoost and LightGBM models were constructed using Python 3.8. Results From 2014 to 2023, a total of 536,443 cases of human brucellosis were reported in mainland China. The incidence rate first decreased and then increased. The average annual incidence was 3.82 per 100,000 people. The LightGBM model effectively captured the complex time‑series characteristics of human brucellosis. It had good performance while accurately predicting the trend. Based on the optimal LightGBM model, a short‑term prediction was made for the trend of human brucellosis in 2024. The results showed that in 2024, the disease would still have a clear seasonal pattern in China. The peak months were from April to June. The highest number of cases was in June (8,733.48 cases). The lowest number was in October (3,260.69 cases). The predicted total number of cases for the year was about 70,260. Overall, the incidence remained high. Conclusion China remains in a high-incidence phase of human brucellosis, necessitating further implementation of prevention and control measures and enhanced supervision and monitoring in key regions.
