Analysis of prediction of incidence and epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou, 2013-2025
10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2026200
- VernacularTitle:广州市2013—2025年0～9岁儿童手足口病流行特征分析及发病情况预测
- Author:
DU Huanchun, ZHANG Huan, MA Xiaowei, CHEN Siyu, 〖JZ〗WANG Yao, TANG Sili, ZHOU Hongye, ZHANG Xiao, WU Qilin, WEI Yuehong,YUAN Jun
1
Author Information
1. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention(Guangzhou Health Supervision Institute), Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong Province,China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hand,foot and mouth disease;
Incidence;
Regression analysis;
Child
- From:
Chinese Journal of School Health
2026;47(7):1026-1030
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou, so as to provide reference basis for further exploring scientifically effective prevention and control measures.
Methods:Reported cases of HFMD in children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou City from 2013-2025 were selected from China disease prevention and control information system, and the incidence in different years was analyzed descriptively; the trends of the composition ratio and incidence in various age groups were analyzed by using the Joinpoint regression model, spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed at the district level, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was applied to predict annual incidence rate for 2026.
Results:From 2013 to 2025, the average annual reported incidence rate of HFMD among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou was 2 513.98/100 000, showing a fluctuating trend. Peaks of incidence occurred from May to July and from September to October. The male to female ratio was 1.49∶1. The average annual incidence rate was 4 743.99/100 000 in the 0-1 years age group, 3 298.19/100 000 in the 2-5 years age group, and 544.22/ 100 000 in the 6-9 years age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed a decreasing trend in the proportion of the 0-1 years age group (APC= -6.02 %, t =-3.77) and an increasing trend in the proportion of the 6-9 years age group (APC=16.39%, t =5.67) (both P < 0.05 ). No significant global spatial clustering was observed at the district level; however, local scattered clusters were identified in certain areas. Using the SARIMA(2,0,0)(2,0,0) 12 model, the predicted annual incidence rate of HFMD among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou in 2026 was 2 680.56/100 000.
Conclusions:From 2013 to 2025, the annual incidence rate of HFMD among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou exhibited a fluctuating trend; the highest incidence rate is observed in the 0-1 years age group, while the proportion of cases in the 6-9 years age group increase year by year;and local spatial clusters of abnormal distribution are identified. It is essential to enhance risk monitoring and health education in key populations and areas to mitigate the risk of infection in children.
