Analysis of risk factors for early failure of internal mammary artery grafts after coronary artery bypass grafting and construction of a prediction model
- VernacularTitle:冠状动脉旁路移植术后乳内动脉桥早期衰败的风险因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Weihao BAO
1
;
Chunyuan WANG
1
;
Pengbin ZHANG
1
;
Wei FENG
1
;
Zhan HU
1
;
Yan ZHANG
1
,
2
Author Information
1. Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Beijing, 100037, P. R. China
2. Adult Cardiac Surgery Center, Central China Subcenter of National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Henan Cardiovascular Disease Center, Fuwai Central-China Cardiovascular Hospital, Central China Fuwai Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 451460, P. R. Chin
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Coronary artery bypass grafting;
internal mammary artery;
early failure;
risk factors;
prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2026;33(08):1267-1274
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the independent risk factors for early failure of internal mammary artery grafts after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and to construct and preliminarily evaluate a risk prediction model for the decline of internal mammary artery bridges, optimizing postoperative risk stratification and management strategies for patients. Methods Patients who underwent CABG at Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from January 2016 to January 2020 were retrospectively enrolled. The primary endpoint was the failure of the internal mammary artery bridge one year after surgery, and the secondary endpoint was major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) within five years after surgery, including all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and revascularization. Patients were divided into a failure group and a non-failure group based on whether there was early failure of the internal mammary artery bridge after surgery. Independent risk factors for the failure of the internal mammary artery bridge were explored through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariate logistic regression, and a failure risk prediction model was constructed and cross-validated. Patients were stratified for MACCE risk according to the total score of independent risk factors, and the 5-year cumulative MACCE-free rate was drawn using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results A total of 657 patients were included, among whom there were 54 patients in the failure group, including 38 males and 16 females, with an average age of (61.85±8.03) years; there were 603 patients in the non-failure group, including 467 males and 136 females, with an average age of (60.45±8.23) years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that non-left main lesion [OR=3.28, 95%CI (1.41, 7.62), P=0.006], pulsatility index (PI)>3.0 [OR=2.63, 95%CI (1.20, 5.75), P=0.016], quantitative flow ratio (QFR)>0.80 [OR=5.57, 95%CI (2.98, 10.41), P<0.001] and in-hospital complications [OR=4.02, 95%CI (1.59, 10.19), P=0.003] were independent risk factors for the failure of internal mammary artery grafts after CABG. Compared with the prediction model in previous literature [area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.632, 95%CI (0.588, 0.688)], the risk prediction model constructed with QFR>0.80, PI>3.0, non-left main lesion and in-hospital complications had a higher predictive ability for early failure of internal mammary artery grafts [area under curve: 0.758, 95%CI (0.707, 0.817); net reclassification index: 0.272, 95%CI (0.180, 0.370); comprehensive discriminative improvement index: 0.109, 95%CI (0.059, 0.158); P<0.05]. The risk score of independent risk factors for internal mammary artery graft failure demonstrated significant MACCE risk stratification efficiency in the 5-year patient follow-up, with the high-risk group showing a significantly higher incidence of MACCE compared to the medium and low-risk groups (P=0.001). Conclusion QFR>0.80, PI>3.0, non-left main lesions, and in-hospital complications are independent risk factors for early failure of internal mammary artery grafts after CABG. The constructed risk prediction model based on this has preliminary capabilities in predicting the risk of internal mammary artery graft failure and MACCE risk stratification, which is beneficial for the postoperative management of CABG patients and improving their mid-long term prognosis.
