Outlook on clinical blood demand from 2026 to 2035
10.13303/j.cjbt.issn.1004-549x.2026.08.012
- VernacularTitle:2026—2035年临床用血需求展望
- Author:
Meng JIANG
1
;
Hanmei ZHANG
1
;
Linlin LI
1
;
Jian KONG
1
;
Xin WANG
1
;
Minxiang GUO
1
;
Cheng LIANG
1
;
Hui WU
1
Author Information
1. Zibo Central Blood Bank, Zibo 255000, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
population aging;
clinical blood use;
blood supply and demand prediction;
voluntary blood donation management;
artificial intelligence model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion
2026;39(8):1074-1082
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To analyze the demographic evolution of China over the forthcoming decade (2026-2035) and to systematically evaluate its potential implications for voluntary blood donation practices and the equilibrium of clinical blood supply and demand. Methods: Leveraging comprehensive blood collection and utilization data from 2021 to 2025 at the national, provincial (Shandong), and municipal (Zibo) levels, we identified and examined critical determinants influencing blood management systems. The DeepSeek-V3.2 large language model was deployed to project future population age structures, and to generate quantitative estimates for hospitalization volumes, clinical blood requirements, available blood supply, and donation frequencies for the target years 2030 and 2035, thereby furnishing an evidence base for strategic planning and priority-setting. Results: DeepSeek-derived projections indicate that the proportion of China's population aged 60 years and above will surpass 27% (370 million/1 380 million) by 2030 and exceed 30% (400 million/1 350 million) by 2035, signaling a marked acceleration in population aging. This demographic shift is projected to reduce the proportion of the national population eligible to donate blood from 59.2% (835 million out of 1.41 billion) to 52% (710 million out of 1.36 billion), while the demand for blood is expected to increase by 87.8% relative to 2024, rising from 26.927 million units to 50.56 million units. Sustaining blood supply-demand balance will necessitate progressive annual increases in donation rates. Under prevailing policy frameworks, the required blood donation rate among the eligible population in Shandong Province would need to rise by 122.57% by 2035 [from 20.07‰ (1.1641 million person-times/58 million people) to 44.67‰ (2.189 million person-times/49 million people)] to potentially satisfy projected clinical requirements. Conclusion: By integrating DeepSeek-V3.2, AI predictive models, and blood donation incentive measures, it is possible to monitor population demographics, forecast clinical blood demand, manage blood supplies, and ensure the long-term sustainability of clinical blood availability. It must be acknowledged, however, that the present analysis is constrained by a limited data foundation (comprising only five annual observation points); accordingly, the projections should be interpreted as directional trend indicators or methodological illustrations rather than definitive quantitative forecasts.
