Global burden and trend prediction of occupational noise-induced hearing loss, 1990-2021
10.20001/j.issn.2095-2619.20260214
- VernacularTitle:全球1990—2021年职业性噪声性听力损失疾病负担分析与趋势预测
- Author:
Jun YANG
1
;
Bing XU
;
Hong CHEN
Author Information
1. Nanjing Prevention and Treatment Center for Occupational Diseases, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210018, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Occupational noise-induced hearing loss;
Disability-adjusted life years;
Age-standardized DALY rates;
Global Burden of Disease;
Age-period-cohort model;
Autoregressive integrated moving average forecast
- From:
China Occupational Medicine
2026;53(1):84-91
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the global burden of occupational noise-induced hearing loss (ONHL) from 1990 to 2021 and to predict its trends for 2025 to 2035. Methods Data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized DALYs rates, and summary exposure values for ONHL were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. An age-period-cohort model was used to assess age, period, and cohort effects. Joinpoint regression was applied to calculate the annual percentage change in ASDRs. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast DALY trends from 2025 to 2035. Results Global DALYs attributable to ONHL increased from 3.838 1 million person-years in 1990 to 7.847 4 million person-years in 2021, representing a 104.46% increase. DALYs attributable to ONHL increased by 64.93%, 94.30%, 111.51%, 114.64%, and 129.08% in high-, high-middle-, middle-, low-middle-, and low-Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, respectively. DALYs counts were consistently higher in males than in females. DALYs counts peaked in the older age group (60-64 years), whereas the DALYs rate of peaked in the older age group (70-74 years). Age-period-cohort model analysis revealed significant overall age effects in all five SDI regions (all P<0.01). There were a significant overall period and cohort effects in the high-middle SDI region (all P<0.01), but not in the other regions (all P>0.05). The ARIMA model projected that global DALYs due to ONHL would reach 9.650 0 million person-years by 2035, an increase of 22.97% compared with 2021, with the largest increase expected among individuals aged 55-59 years. Conclusion The global burden of ONHL has continuously increased from 1990 to 2021, particularly among male workers in low-SDI regions. This burden is expected to continue rising over the next decade.
