Trends Analysis of Esophageal Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections from 2022 to 2050
10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2026.26.0035
- VernacularTitle:1990—2021年中国食管癌疾病负担趋势分析及2022—2050年数据预测
- Author:
Yajie FAN
1
;
Yaxuan YAO
2
;
Shiling SUN
3
;
Xutao GUAN
3
;
Lifeng JIANG
4
Author Information
1. Department of Haemato-Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China;The First Clinical Medical College of Henan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China;Henan Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of Prevention and Treatment of Major Diseases by Chinese and Western Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
2. Zhongjing College of Henan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450000, China.
3. Department of Haemato-Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China;Henan Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of Prevention and Treatment of Major Diseases by Chinese and Western Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
4. Department of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Henan Tumor Hospital, Zhengzhou 450003, China.
- Publication Type:EPIDEMICRESEARCH
- Keywords:
Esophageal cancer;
Disease burden;
Bayesian age-period-cohort model;
Predictive analysis;
China
- From:
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment
2026;53(7):549-555
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze esophageal cancer burden trends in China from 1990 to 2021, further project the burden from 2022 to 2050. Methods The time trends of standardized incidence, standardized mortality, and standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were analyzed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 2022 to 2050 was predicted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort model combined with sensitivity analysis and model calibration. Results In China, the ASIR of esophageal cancer increased from 17.637 per 105 in 1990 to 22.548 per 105 in 2021 (EAPC=0.55, 95%CI: 0.38–0.71). The ASMR rose from 17.920 per 105 in 1990 to 20.836 per 105 in 2021 (EAPC=0.21, 95%CI: 0.02–0.39). The age-standardized DALYs decreased from 497.437 per 105 in 1990 to 484.884 per 105 in 2021 (EAPC=−0.39, 95%CI: from −0.59 to −0.2). Among individuals aged 45 years and above, the proportion of esophageal cancer cases increased from 93.32% in 1990 to 97.56% in 2021, and the proportion of deaths in this age group rose from 90.44% in 1990 to 98.22% in 2021. For individuals aged 40 years and above, the proportion of DALYs attributed to esophageal cancer increased from 95.29% in 1990 to 98.29% in 2021. Among people aged 20 years and above, the incidence rate of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend in all age groups. In particular, the 35–39 year age group exhibited the most significant decline (EAPC=−3.74, 95%CI: from −4.22 to −3.25). Among individuals aged 20 years and above, the 70+ year age group had the smallest decrease in ASMR and age-standardized DALYs. By 2050, the standardized prevalence, standardized incidence, standardized mortality, and standardized DALY rate of esophageal cancer in China were predicted to decrease to 25.1/105, 6.4/105, 14.2/105, and 12.0/105, respectively. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR and ASMR of esophageal cancer in China showed an upward trend, whereas the age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a slow downward trend. Although the incidence of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend across all the age groups from 20 years and above, the overall standardized rate exhibited an upward trend due to factors such as population aging. By 2050, the burden of esophageal cancer in China, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, will decline. The population aged 45 years and above is the core group affected by esophageal cancer and should be prioritized for prevention and control.
