Status and predictive factors of future acute exacerbation of asthma in adults
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.04.034
- VernacularTitle:成人哮喘未来急性发作情况及预测因素分析
- Author:
Qin XIAO
1
;
Wenjun GAO
1
;
Dan ZHOU
1
Author Information
1. Department of Respiratory Medicine, the First Affiliated Hospital of the Naval Medical University (Changhai Hospital), Shanghai 200433, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Asthma in adults;
Acute exacerbation;
Logistic regression analysis;
Predictive factors
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(4):164-168
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the status and predictive factors of future acute exacerbation of asthma in adults. Methods Adult patients with asthma who were admitted to the hospital from March 2023 to July 2025 were selected. Based on the acute exacerbation status after follow-up, the patients were categorized into acute exacerbation group (n=107) and control group (n=245). The clinical data, pulmonary function [peak expiratory flow (PEF) and forced expiratory volume in the 1st second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC)] and health status [asthma control questionnaire (ACQ), Morisky medication adherence scale (MMAS-8), short form 36-item health survey (SF-36)] of the study subjects were collected. The correlation between the indicators and acute exacerbation was explored by logistic regression analysis, and the predictive efficiency was evaluated by ROC curve. Results The age, smoking history, asthma course, allergen exposure and ACQ in the acute exacerbation group were higher than those in the control group, while the average monthly family income, glucocorticoid treatment, PEF, FEV1/FVC, MMAS-8 and SF-36 were lower (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression suggested that ACQ score, glucocorticoid treatment, MMAS-8 score, FEV1/FVC, PEF and smoking history were the influencing factors of acute asthma exacerbation (P<0.05). ROC analysis revealed that the diagnostic efficiency of combined prediction was the highest (AUC=0.965), with sensitivity of 0.944 and specificity of 0.857 (P<0.05). Conclusion It is necessary to pay more attention to the medication compliance and asthma control level of patients, and integrate multi-dimensional information such as smoking history, pulmonary function and treatment conditions to accurately identify patients with high-risk acute exacerbation and implement targeted intervention measures.
