Risk factors of plastic bronchitis in children with SMPP and construction of Nomogram model
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.04.026
- VernacularTitle:重症肺炎支原体肺炎患儿发生塑形性支气管炎相关因素及Nomogram模型构建
- Author:
Zhenpeng GAO
1
;
Yingying YE
1
;
Yongping ZHANG
1
;
Jiaxue LIU
1
;
Weifang ZHOU
1
Author Information
1. Department of Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou , Jiangsu 215025, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Children;
Severe mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia;
Plastic bronchitis;
Nomogram model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(4):123-128
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the risk factors of plastic bronchitis (PB) in children with severe mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (SMPP) and construct a Nomogram model. Methods A total of 195 children with SMPP from April 2022 to April 2025 were selected and divided into the PB group and the non-PB group according to the occurrence of PB. Their clinical data were compared. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of PB in SMPP, and ROC was used to analyze the predictive ability of the model. The Nomogram prediction model was established using R-4.4.3 software, and the calibration curve and clinical decision curve were plotted for analysis. Results PB occurred in 66 cases (33.85%) (P < 0.05). The duration of fever, PIV, SII, D-D, LDH, and pleural effusion were independent risk factors for PB in SMPP (OR=6.997, 1.016, 1.008, 70.202, 1.025, 32.323, P < 0.05). Based on this, the PB prediction model for SMPP occurrence established had a good goodness of fit (P > 0.05), and the area under the ROC curve was 0.888 (95%CI : 0.878-0.898). The average absolute error of Bootstrap repeated sampling 1000 times was 0.021, and the model C-index was 0.889 (95%CI: 0.888-0.991). The predicted probability of the model has a good consistency with the actual probability, with good accuracy, and the Brier score is 0.035 (95%CI: 0.015-0.054). Good clinical benefits can be achieved when the threshold probability is between 0.01 and 0.99. Conclusion The Nomogram model of PB in children with SMPP constructed based on factors such as fever duration, PIV, SII, D-D, LDH, and pleural effusion has good discrimination and accuracy, and can provide a reference for the prevention of PB.
