Analysis and trend prediction of the burden of renal cancer among Chinese adolescents and young adults
10.12483/j.issn.1009-8291.2026.04.002
- VernacularTitle:中国青少年和年轻成人肾癌疾病负担分析与趋势预测
- Author:
Yicheng YANG
1
;
Chaoyang ZHU
1
;
Qingyang LUO
1
;
Jiaxin LI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Urology, Huaihe Hospital, Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
adolescents and young adults;
renal cancer;
disease burden;
Joinpoint regression;
autoregressive integrated moving average model
- From:
Journal of Modern Urology
2026;31(4):302-310
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the characteristics and temporal trends of renal cancer burden among Chinese adolescents and young adults(AYA), and predict its future epidemic situation, so as to provide evidence for formulating public health policies and reducing the disease burden.Methods Epidemiological data of renal cancer in Chinese AYA(15-39 years)from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database. The current status and trends of renal cancer in this population were analyzed. The incidence and mortality trends of renal cancer in AYA over the next 15 years was predicted with ARIMA model. The impacts of smoking and body mass index(BMI)on the disease burden were evaluated. Results In 2021, the incidence(1.12/100000), prevalence(8.61/100000), mortality(0.19/100000), and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)(11.37/100000 person-years)of renal cancer in Chinese AYA were significantly higher than those in 1990 and above the global average. All burden indicators and their increases were higher in males than in females, and the burden accelerated after 30 years of age. The incidence rose steadily from 2003 to 2021(APC=3.95), while the mortality increased significantly from 2013 to 2021(APC=2.40). The burden attributed to high BMI continued to rise, and the smoking-attributable fraction in males first increased then decreased. ARIMA predicted that the incidence of renal cancer in Chinese AYA males would accelerate, while the mortality in both genders would stabilize. Conclusion The burden of renal cancer in Chinese AYA shows a significant upward trend. Males and people over 30 years old are key targets for prevention and control. Strengthening the management of risk factors(smoking, high BMI)and promoting early diagnosis and treatment are essential to reduce the disease burden.
