Variation in the Association between Frailty and Disability over 10 Years: A Cohort Study
10.4235/agmr.25.0118
- Author:
Akikazu HAGIYAMA
;
Toshiharu MITSUHASHI
;
Soshi TAKAO
;
Takashi YORIFUJI
- Publication Type:Original Article
- From:
Annals of Geriatric Medicine and Research
2026;30(2):143-150
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Background:Although frailty is associated with disability, its long-term persistence and changes over time remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate the long-term association between frailty and the incidence of disability over a 10-year follow-up period, evaluating how this association changed over time.
Methods:This cohort study was conducted in Okayama City, Japan. Community-dwelling older adults aged ≥65 years were included. Frailty was assessed using the Kihon Checklist, and disability was defined as a new certification for long-term care insurance. The association between frailty and disability was examined across five time periods (years 1–2, 3–4, 5–6, 7–8, and 9–10) using a marginal structural model with inverse probability of treatment weighting and inverse probability of censoring weighting.
Results:The final analysis included 45,291 participants, with 17.3% classified as frail. The adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the association between frailty and the incidence of disability gradually decreased over time but remained throughout the 10-year follow-up period. The adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals were 2.90 (2.55–3.29) for years 1–2, 2.40 (2.09–2.75) for years 3–4, 2.03 (1.76–2.34) for years 5–6, 1.75 (1.52–2.01) for years 7–8, and 1.58 (1.38–1.82) for years 9–10.
Conclusion:Frailty was consistently associated with the incidence of disability over a 10-year follow-up period, with a stronger association in the earlier years and a gradual decline over time.
