Impacts of combined exposure to PM2.5 and cold spells on non-accidental mortality in Zigong City from 2016 to 2021
- VernacularTitle:2016—2021年自贡市PM2.5污染与寒潮联合暴露对非意外死亡的影响
- Author:
Yizhang XIA
1
;
Wei HUANG
1
;
Yang LI
2
;
Yuquan CHEN
3
;
Jie ZHANG
1
;
Haili REN
4
;
Qinglan HUANG
1
;
Xi CHEN
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Investigation
- Keywords: cold spell; fine particulate matter; non-accidental mortality; distributed-lag nonlinear model; time series
- From: Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(1):35-42
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Background Amid global climate change, extreme environmental events are occurring more frequently, and it is imperative to investigate the impacts of combined exposure to fine particluate matter (PM2.5) and cold spells (CS) on population mortality. Objective To analyze the association between sequential extreme PM2.5-cold spell (EP-CS) events and non-accidental mortality among residents in Zigong City from 2016 to 2021. Methods Using time-series study design, meteorological data in Zigong were collected from the Zigong Meteorological Bureau for the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021, while daily non-accidental mortality data were obtained from the mortality surveillance system of the Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We adopted the percentile method to define extreme PM2.5 events and cold spells. We analyzed the risk effect of EP-CS events on non-accidental mortality among residents in this city and explored the potential amplification of damage resulting from different patterns of consecutive extreme events by using distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). We also conducted stratified analyses based on age, gender, education level, and marital status. Results The EP-CS events demonstrated a significant impact on non-accidental mortality among the local residents, exhibiting a certain lagged effect. The effects on the overall residents lasted from lag0 (RR=1.030, 95%CI: 1.013, 1.048) to lag14 (RR=1.035, 95%CI: 1.019, 1.052). Notably, the effects were more pronounced among females, individuals aged 65 years and above, and those who were never married, divorced, or widowed. Different patterns of EP-CS events all associated with adverse effects, the health impact of EP-CS events was significantly greater than that of individual PM2.5 pollution or CS events. The analysis of lag effects across different event patterns revealed that the overall effect of EP-CS events with shorter intervals (0–7 d) had a stronger effect compared to EP-CS with longer intervals (8–14 d), and the RR values of lag14 were 1.034 (95%CI: 1.015, 1.054) and 1.017 (95%CI: 1.007, 1.027), suggesting that the damaging effect of compound events occurring in the short term was more significant. Conclusion All sequential extreme EP-CS events have an impact on non-accidental mortality among residents in this city, with compound events demonstrating a stronger effect. Females, individuals aged ≥65 years, and those who were never married, divorced, or widowed are more sensitive to EP-CS events.
