Characteristics and trends of pneumoconiosis incidence in Hebei Province from 1949 to 2024

Junqin ZHAO; Guangyi BAI; Zhenyu GONG; Lixin YANG; Junqing GAO; Ye ZHAN

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Characteristics and trends of pneumoconiosis incidence in Hebei Province from 1949 to 2024

VernacularTitle:1949—2024年河北省尘肺病发病特征及变化趋势
Author: Junqin ZHAO ¹ ; Guangyi BAI ¹ ; Zhenyu GONG ² ; Lixin YANG ¹ ; Junqing GAO ¹ ; Ye ZHAN ¹
Author Information

1. Institute of Occupational Health and Occupational Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China.
2. Institute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China.
Publication Type:Investigation
Keywords: Hebei; pneumoconiosis; epidemiological characteristic; autoregressive integrated moving average; generalized regression neural network
From: Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(5):597-603
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Background Pneumoconiosis remains a critical occupational disease in China. As a major industrial province, Hebei historically faced severe challenges regarding this condition. The 1986 national epidemiological survey ranked Hebei sixth in reported pneumoconiosis cases nationwide. Objective To analyze 76 years of pneumoconiosis data (1949–2024) in Hebei Province to provide evidence-based support for prevention and control strategies. Methods Occupational pneumoconiosis cases diagnosed in Hebei from 1949 to 2024 were included. Five-year intervals were used to analyze incidence composition, dust exposure duration, age at first diagnosis, and age at death. A hybrid model, integrating autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with generalized regression neural network (GRNN), was employed to predict case numbers for the 2025−2030 period. Results A total of 36107 cases of pneumoconiosis were recorded (2.10% female) in Hebei from 1949 to 2024. Stages I, II, and III accounted for 77.35%, 16.45%, and 6.20%, respectively. Silicosis (55.60%), coal workers’ pneumoconiosis (27.24%), and pottery workers’ pneumoconiosis (8.88%) were the predominant types. Observed trends included a shortened dust exposure duration [silicosis: (12.78±7.063) years in 2020–2024] and an increasing age at first diagnosis [(54.01±7.499) years in 2020–2024]. The case-fatality rate was 14.84%, with a rising age at death [(82.26±9.632) years in 2015–2019]. Three incidence peaks (1963, 1984, and 2014) correlated with national policies and industrialization phases. The number of pneumoconiosis cases showed a decreasing trend from 2015 to 2024. Chengde and Tangshan were identified as current high-risk areas. The ARIMA-GRNN model projected annual cases between 416 and 429 during 2025–2030. Conclusion In the past decade，the number of pneumoconiosis cases in Hebei Province had shown a decreasing trend, it is projected to plateau with no significant decline over the next five years. Furthermore, challenges such as the proportion of silicosis remaining high and shortened dust exposure duration remain severe. It is recommended to focus on key regions like Chengde (ore mining) and Tangshan (ceramics industry). A comprehensive strategy integrating stricter regulation, technological controls, model innovation, and targeted interventions should be implemented to achieve a further substantial reduction in pneumoconiosis incidence.