Epidemiological characteristics and prediction analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shanxi Province in 2012 - 2024
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.03.003
- VernacularTitle:2012—2024年山西省手足口病流行特征及预测分析
- Author:
Wenjun WANG
1
;
Xiaohong ZHANG
2
;
Lijuan LIU
3
;
Yaqiong SONG
3
;
Qing TAN
3
;
Yanzhen NIU
3
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Jinzhong, Shanxi 030001, China
2. School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Jinzhong, Shanxi 030001, China;Shanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030012, China
3. Shanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030012, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hand, foot, and mouth disease;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Prediction model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(3):14-18
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2024, and predict the incidence trend for 2025, and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the surveillance data of HFMD in Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2024, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and time trends of the disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model was constructed and used to predict the incidence trend in 2025. Results From 2012 to 2024, a total of 254 028 HFMD cases were reported in Shanxi Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 54.17 per 100 000 population, a severe case rate of 0.56%, and a case fatality rate (CFR) of 12.60 per 100 000 population. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rate, severe case rate, mortality rate, and case fatality rate all presented a downward trend. The epidemic exhibited obvious seasonal distribution characteristics, with the peak period from April to November, and two incidence peaks in June-July and October-November. The male-to-female incidence ratio was 1.41:1. Children aged 1-5 years accounted for 89.24% of the total cases, among which scattered children (58.48%) and nursery children (33.54%) were the high-risk groups. Linfen City (96.06 /100 000) and Taiyuan City (88.54 /100 000) had relatively high incidence rates. After 2017, the proportion of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) decreased, while coxsackievirus A16 (Cox-A16) and other enteroviruses became the main epidemic strains. The ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ model predicted that the incidence of HFMD in 2025 would remain at the level of 2023-2024, and the dual-peak characteristic would continue. Conclusion From 2012 to 2024, the overall HFMD epidemic in Shanxi Province generally shows a significant downward trend. The high-risk population includes scattered children and nursery children under 5 years old, with high-incidence areas concentrated in the central and southern regions, requiring focused attention. The seasonal ARIMA model can effectively fit the evolutionary trend of HFMD incidence in Shanxi Province and possesses short-term predictive capability.
