Trends and influencing factors in China's life expectancy from a Global Perspective
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2026.03.001
- VernacularTitle:全球视角下的中国寿命变化趋势及影响因素分析
- Author:
Jiayan GAO
1
;
Yueyun ZENG
1
;
Jing WANG
1
;
Chuanhua YU
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Life expectancy at birth;
Healthy life expectancy;
Survival probability;
Cause-deleted life expectancy;
Risk factors
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2026;37(3):1-7
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To systematically analyze the trends in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in China from 1990 to 2023, identify the factors influencing changes in life expectancy, and provide scientific evidence for the Healthy China Strategy. Methods Based on the most recent authoritative data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023), the United Nations Population Division, the World Bank, and Our World in Data, complete life tables and cause-deleted life tables were constructed. Analytical methods including Joinpoint regression and ARIMA forecasting were comprehensively applied to systematically evaluate life expectancy, survival probability, and the burden of diseases and risk factors. Results From 1990 to 2023, life expectancy at birth in China exhibited sustained and rapid growth (average annual percentage change, AAPC = 0.63%), with a growth rate significantly higher than those observed in the United States, Japan, and the global average (AAPC = 0.12%, 0.21%, and 0.45%, respectively). Survival probability improved across all age groups, with particularly notable gains in children and the oldest-old. Interprovincial and sex-based disparities persisted. Cause-deleted analysis revealed that cardiovascular disease (CVD) accounted for the greatest loss in life expectancy at birth. From 2004 to 2020, years of life lost due to CVD increased annually, reaching 8.70 years in 2020 for the zero-age group in China. Neoplasm ranked second in causing life expectancy loss, which remained relatively stable at approximately 3 years over the study period. Among risk factors, tobacco use, hypertension, air pollution, dietary risks, and high fasting plasma glucose were identified as prominent contributors to life expectancy loss. Strong positive correlations were observed between health resources, economic growth, and life expectancy. Conclusion China has made remarkable progress in extending lifespan and improving quality of life, but it still faces challenges such as chronic diseases limiting lifespan and life quality, diverse health risks, and disparities in health levels and life expectancy across regions and populations.
