Development and validation of a mortality risk prediction model for surgical treatment of myocardial infarction with ventricular septal rupture
- VernacularTitle:外科手术治疗心肌梗死合并室间隔破裂的死亡风险预测模型构建与验证
- Author:
Lisong WU
1
;
Wei FU
1
;
Ran DONG
1
;
Jubing ZHENG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Cardiac Surgery, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100029, P. R. China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Myocardial infarction;
ventricular septal rupture;
surgical treatment;
mortality risk;
prediction model;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2026;33(05):759-765
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors associated with mortality in patients undergoing surgical treatment for myocardial infarction complicated by ventricular septal rupture, and to establish a prediction model. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical data of patients who underwent surgical treatment of myocardial infarction with ventricular septal rupture at Beijing Anzhen Hospital from 2008 to 2022. Patients were followed up and divided into a survival group and a death group based on perioperative and follow-up outcomes. Univariate analysis was performed for all variables, followed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to screen risk factors affecting postoperative mortality. A Cox regression model was constructed and a Nomogram was developed. Results A total of 83 surgical patients were included, comprising 49 males and 34 females, with a mean age of (64.4±7.7) years. There were 13 perioperative deaths, and among the 70 surviving patients, 6 additional deaths occurred during follow-up. Consequently, 64 patients were assigned to the survival group and 19 to the death group. Univariate analysis revealed statistically significant differences between groups in age, culprit vessel patency status, intra-aortic balloon pump use, Killip classification, time from myocardial infarction to surgery, and time from perforation to surgery (all P<0.05). LASSO regression identified three independent predictors: age [HR=1.092, 95%CI (1.005, 1.187), P=0.039], Killip classification [HR=2.024, 95%CI (1.009, 4.059), P=0.047], and culprit vessel patency [HR=0.110, 95%CI (0.014, 0.869), P=0.036]. The Nomogram based on these variables demonstrated good discriminative ability, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.907 at 1 month and 0.876 at 1 year postoperatively. Follow-up revealed cumulative survival rates of 78.2%, 78.2%, 74.6%, and 74.6% at 2, 5, 8, and 10 years postoperatively for all patients, and 92.7%, 92.7%, 88.5%, and 88.5% for perioperative survivors. Conclusion Patients with myocardial infarction complicated by ventricular septal rupture demonstrate favorable mid-to-long-term prognosis after surgical repair. Age, Killip classification, and culprit vessel patency are independent predictors of postoperative mortality, and the established prediction model shows satisfactory prognostic performance.
