Analysis of risk factors and construction of prediction model for pancreatogenic portal hypertension in acute pancreatitis patients
10.3760/cma.j.cn311367-20240327-00117
- VernacularTitle:急性胰腺炎并发胰源性门静脉高压的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Jiani YANG
1
;
Qirui ZHANG
1
;
Yan LIU
1
;
Yuhang LIAO
1
;
Qiuyan TIAN
1
;
Wanyu HU
1
;
Yinglei MIAO
1
;
Lanqing MA
1
;
Hairong ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. 昆明医科大学第一附属医院消化内科，昆明 650032
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Acute pancreatitis;
Pancreatogenic portal hypertension;
Risk factors;
Nomograms
- From:
Chinese Journal of Digestion
2024;44(9):598-604
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the risk factors of moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) complicated with pancreatogenic portal hypertension (PPH) and to establish a prediction model.Methods:From January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2022, a total of 1 095 patients diagnosed with MSAP or SAP at the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University were enrolled and divided into PPH group (145 cases) and non-PPH group (950 cases) according to the presence or absence of concomitant PPH. The general data (gender, etiology of acute pancreatitis, days of hospitalization, etc.), complications (portal vein thrombosis, pancreatic pseudocyst, pancreatic encapsulated necrosis, etc.), laboratory indicators (albumin, D-dimer, etc.), and scores of modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI) were collected in the two groups. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to analyze the independent risk factors of MSAP and SAP complicated with PPH, and the nomogram prediction model was established. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated to evaluate the discrimination of the calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the model, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical practicability of the model.Results:The results of LASSO and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that portal vein thrombosis, pancreatic pseudocyst, pancreatic encapsulated necrosis, days of hospitalization, MCTSI and decreased albumin were independent risk factors of MSAP and SAP complicated with PPH ( OR=7.013, 2.085, 1.846, 1.030, 1.235 and 0.955; 95% confidence interval 4.061 to 12.112, 1.255 to 3.463, 1.066 to 3.199, 1.013 to 1.047, 1.123 to 1.357 and 0.927 to 0.983; all P<0.05). The area under the curve of the model was 0.820 (95% confidence interval 0.780 to 0.859), the calibration curve was close to the reference curve, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-fit test showed that the model had a good fit ( χ2=9.82, P=0.278). The result of DCA indicated that the model had a high net benefit in a wide range of risk threshold (threshold probability 0.1 to 0.9), and had certain clinical practicability. Conclusions:Portal vein thrombosis, pancreatic pseudocyst, pancreatic encapsulated necrosis, days of hospitalization, MCTSI and decreased albumin are the independent risk factors of MSAP and SAP complicated with PPH. The established nomogram model has good differentiation, calibration and clinical practicability.
