Analysis of risk factors for incidence of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in cervical cancer patients and construction of a nomogram prediction model
10.3760/cma.j.cn115355-20240110-00025
- VernacularTitle:子宫颈癌患者术后下肢淋巴水肿发生的危险因素分析及列线图预测模型构建
- Author:
Yunying ZHENG
1
;
Juan ZHANG
1
;
Nian YANG
1
Author Information
1. 资阳市人民医院妇产科，资阳 641300
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Uterine cervical neoplasms;
Lymphedema;
Nomograms
- From:
Cancer Research and Clinic
2025;37(2):87-92
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors for postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in patients with cervical cancer and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:A retrospective case-control study was conducted. Using convenience sampling method, 750 cervical cancer patients in Ziyang People's Hospital from May 2014 to May 2022 were selected. The included patients were divided into a modeling group (525 cases) and a validation group (225 cases) according to a ratio of 7∶3. In the modeling group, patients were divided into a developing group and a non-developing group according to the incidence of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema. Self-designed baseline data questionnaire was used to collect clinical data of patients. Logistic stepwise regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factor for the incidence of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in cervical cancer patients. R 4.0.2 software was used to construct a nomogram model for predicting the incidence risk of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in cervical cancer patients based on the independent risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the differentiation of the nomogram prediction model. Calibration curves were drawn to evaluate the consistency of the nomogram prediction model.Results:Among 525 cervical cancer patients in the modeling group, 109 (20.76%) had postoperative lower extremity lymphedema. There were statistically significant differences in the proportions of patients with different ages, tumor stages, surgical methods, postoperative drainage time, continuous standing time, number of lymph node dissection, and with or without diabetes mellitus, postoperative chemotherapy, postoperative radiotherapy, strenuous exercise or physical labor between the developing group and the non-developing group (all P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years old( OR = 2.548, 95% CI: 1.253-5.181), postoperative radiotherapy ( OR = 8.048, 95% CI: 3.867-16.749), postoperative drainage time ≥5 d ( OR = 2.664, 95% CI: 1.043-6.803), continuous standing time ≥ 1 h ( OR = 3.024, 95% CI: 1.252-7.305), number of lymph node dissection > 20 ( OR = 7.063, 95% CI: 1.595-31.281), comorbid diabetes mellitus ( OR = 2.617, 95% CI: 1.200-5.711), and strenuous exercise or physical labor ( OR = 3.518, 95% CI: 1.841-6.721) were all independent risk factors affecting the incidence of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in cervical cancer patients (all P < 0.05). Based on the above risk factors, a nomogram model was established to predict the incidence risk of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in cervical cancer patients, and internal and external validation was performed. The results showed that the calibration curves of the modeling group and the validation group showed a good fit to the ideal curves (modeling group: χ2 = 7.87, P = 0.446; validation group: χ2 = 7.92, P = 0.441); the area under the ROC curve was 0.839 (95% CI: 0.795-0.883) and 0.834 (95% CI: 0.783-0.885), respectively, indicating that the prediction model had good predictive efficacy. Conclusions:Age, postoperative radiotherapy, postoperative drainage time, continuous standing time, number of lymph node dissection, whether combined with diabetes mellitus and strenuous exercise or physical labor may be the influencing factors for the incidence of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in cervical cancer patients. The constructed nomogram model has high clinical value in evaluating the incidence risk of postoperative lower extremity lymphedema in cervical cancer patients.
