Establishment and validation of a risk prediction model for osteoporosis in postmenopausal patients with rheumatoid arthritis
10.3760/cma.j.cn431274-20241223-01910
- VernacularTitle:绝经后类风湿性关节炎患者发生骨质疏松症的风险预测模型构建与验证
- Author:
Jirong HAN
1
;
Ronghua XIE
;
Shengkai LIU
;
Bo ZHAO
Author Information
1. 西北妇女儿童医院妇女保健科，西安 710000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Menopause;
Arthritis, rheumatoid;
Osteoporosis;
Models, statistical
- From:
Journal of Chinese Physician
2025;27(8):1174-1179
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors for osteoporosis in postmenopausal patients with rheumatoid arthritis and establish a prediction model for early identification.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 128 postmenopausal patients with rheumatoid arthritis who visited Northwest Women′s and Children′s Hospital from May 2021 to December 2023. According to their bone mineral density, the patients were divided into the osteoporosis group (T-score ≤-2.5, n=16) and the non-osteoporosis group (T-score >-2.5, n=112). Clinical data of the two groups were compared. Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation of various indicators. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to screen the influencing factors for osteoporosis in postmenopausal patients with rheumatoid arthritis, and a Nomogram model for predicting the risk of osteoporosis in such patients was established. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the model. Results:The age, Disease Activity Score 28 based on Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (DAS28-ESR), β-cross-linked C-telopeptide of type I collagen (β-CTX), luteinizing hormone (LH), and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) in the osteoporosis group were higher than those in the non-osteoporosis group, while the bone mineral density of lumbar vertebrae t1-4, left hip, right hip, serum calcium, and estradiol (E 2) levels were lower (all P<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis showed that DAS28-ESR was negatively correlated with bone mineral density of lumbar vertebrae t1-4 ( r=-3.026, P=0.002), left hip ( r=-3.409, P<0.001), and right hip ( r=-4.125, P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ( OR=4.697, 95% CI: 2.509-8.795), DAS28-ESR ( OR=4.889, 95% CI: 2.611-9.154), β-CTX ( OR=4.816, 95% CI: 2.572-9.018), LH ( OR=4.998, 95% CI: 2.669-9.357), and FSH ( OR=4.802, 95% CI: 2.565-8.991) were risk factors for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women with rheumatoid arthritis (all P<0.05); bone mineral density of lumbar vertebrae t1-4 ( OR=0.203, 95% CI: 0.108-0.381), left hip ( OR=0.214, 95% CI: 0.114-0.401), right hip ( OR=0.211, 95% CI: 0.113-0.396), serum calcium ( OR=0.199, 95% CI: 0.106-0.372), and E 2 ( OR=0.210, 95% CI: 0.112-0.383) were protective factors (all P<0.05). The Nomogram model for predicting osteoporosis in postmenopausal patients with rheumatoid arthritis had a sensitivity of 0.86(95% CI: 0.73-0.92), a specificity of 0.83(95% CI: 0.72-0.95), and an area under the curve of 0.918(95% CI: 0.865-0.973). Conclusions:Age, DAS28-ESR, β-CTX, LH, FSH, bone mineral density of lumbar vertebrae t1-4, left hip, right hip, serum calcium, and E 2 are related to osteoporosis in postmenopausal patients with rheumatoid arthritis. The established prediction model is helpful for early identification of the risk of osteoporosis.
