Disease burden of Parkinson's disease in China: a conclusion from 1990 to 2021 and a prediction from 2022 to 2030
10.3760/cma.j.cn115354-20240920-00585
- VernacularTitle:中国帕金森病发病负担分析及预测
- Author:
Zongfei JIANG
1
;
Wenping YANG
;
Feng SI
;
Jun ZHU
;
Siquan ZHU
;
Zhenrui LIU
;
Xiangdong LU
;
Yong GAO
;
Chunyu SONG
Author Information
1. 山东第一医科大学附属人民医院（济南市人民医院）神经外科，济南市神经肿瘤分子生物学重点实验室，济南市神经分子基础与临床转化医学重点实验室，济南 271100
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Parkinson's disease;
Incidence;
Age-period-cohort model;
Prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Neuromedicine
2024;23(12):1205-1210
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the disease burden of Parkinson's disease (PD) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict the disease burden of PD from 2022 to 2030.Methods:Based on the data of PD incidence in China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), changes in PD disease burden from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the independent influences of age, period and cohort in PD incidence (according to age group of 5 years, patients were divided into 15 groups: group of 20-24 years, group of 25-29 years..., and group of 90-94 years; according to a 5-year period, patients were divided into 6 groups: group of 1992-1996, group of 1997-2001..., and group of 2017-2021; because of birth cohort=period-age, patients were divided into 20 birth cohorts: birth cohort of 1897-1906, birth cohort of 1902-1911..., and birth cohort of 1992-2001). Nordpred model was used to predict the disease burden of PD from 2022 to 2030.Results:(1) From 1990 to 2021, number of PD patients, and PD incidence and standardized incidence in China showed upward trends. The standardized incidence increased by 89.68% for the total population, 89.71% for males, and 77.64% for females. (2) PD incidence was low in young subjects and increased obviously in subjects aged 60 years. PD incidence in subjects aged 20-24 years or 90-94 years was 0.07/100 000 and 643.31/100 000, respectively. Compared with female subjects, male subjects aged 60-94 years had higher PD incidence. (3) The onset relative risk increased from 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.73) in group of 1992-1996 to 1.17 (95% CI: 1.16-1.19) in group of 2017-2021 in the total population, increased from 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70) to 1.18 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21) in males, and increased from 0.75 (95% CI: 0.73-0.77) to 1.14 (95% CI: 1.12-1.16) in females. (4) Onset relative risk was 0.40 (95% CI: 0.33-0.48) in the earliest birth cohort (1897-1906), which increased to 1.81 (95% CI: 0.95-3.43) in the latest birth cohort (1992-2001). (5) Number of PD patients in males, females and total population in China would increase to 455 010, 301 173 and 756 183, respectively, and the standardized incidence would increase to 56.45/100 000, 32.28/100 000 and 43.40/100 000, respectively, till 2030. Conclusion:PD disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021 is severe, particularly among males and the elderly; the disease burden is projected to continue rising up till 2030.
