Analysis of factors influencing postoperative pathological upgrading in prostate cancer with target biopsy Gleason score 3 + 3 and development of a predictive model
10.3760/cma.j.cn112330-20241118-00511
- VernacularTitle:前列腺靶区活检病理Gleason评分3 + 3分术后病理升级的影响因素分析与预测模型的建立
- Author:
Rongjie SHI
1
;
Lai DONG
1
;
Zhiyi SHEN
1
;
Kaiyu ZHANG
1
;
Chenglong ZHANG
1
;
Yamin WANG
1
;
Ruizhe ZHAO
1
;
Shangqian WANG
1
;
Gong CHENG
1
;
Lixin HUA
1
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学第一附属医院（江苏省人民医院）泌尿外科，南京 210000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Prostatic neoplasms;
Carcinoma;
Biopsy;
Pathological upgrading;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Urology
2025;46(9):684-690
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the influencing factors for pathological upgrading in prostate cancer patients with a Gleason score of 3 + 3 undergoing targeted biopsy，and to establish a nomogram prediction model.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 191 patients with localized prostate cancer diagnosed with a Gleason score of 3 + 3 through targeted biopsies at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2020 to June 2024. The age of the patients was 67（61，73）years，with prostate-specific antigen（PSA）level of 7.44（5.53，10.19）ng/ml，prostate volume of 35.64（26.59，48.97）ml，and PSA density（PSAD）of 0.20（0.14，0.31）ng/ml 2. Among them，61 cases（31.94%）had a Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System（PI-RADS）score of 3，104 cases（54.45%）had a score of 4，and 26 cases（13.61%）had a score of 5. The diameter of the main lesion was 10.75（7.86，14.00）mm. The lesions were located in the peripheral zone in 78 cases（40.84%），the transition zone in 99 cases（51.83%），and the anterior fibromuscular stroma in 14 cases（7.33%）. The lesions were found at the apex in 56 cases（29.32%），in the body in 120 cases（62.83%），and at the base in 15 cases（7.85%）. MRI revealed only one lesion with a PI-RADS score ≥ 3 in 131 cases，two suspected lesions in 43 cases，three suspected lesions in 12 cases，and four suspected lesions in 5 cases. Systematic biopsy was positive in 121 cases（63.4%）and negative in 70 cases（36.6%）. The lesions were confined to the left lobe in 63 cases（32.98%），right lobe in 68 cases（35.60%），and involved both lobes in 60 cases（31.41%）. The interval between biopsy and surgery was 9.0（7.0，14.0）days. Univariate analyses were performed using Mann-Whitney U tests or χ2 tests，and multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of pathological upgrading. A nomogram model was constructed based on these independent predictors. The model’s discriminative ability was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve（AUC），and internal validation of the model’s consistency was conducted using the bootstrap resampling method. Decision curve analysis（DCA）was performed to assess clinical utility. Results:Among the 191 cases，60（31.4%）had no pathological upgrading after surgery，while 131（68.6%）showed upgrading. Univariate analysis showed that the maximum diameter of the main lesion［9.0（6.0，13.2）mm vs. 11.0（8.4，14.0）mm］，number of suspicious lesions on MRI［1.0（1.0，1.0）vs. 1.0（1.0，2.0）］，number of positive systematic biopsy cores［1.0（0，2.0）vs. 1.0（0，3.0）］，percentage of positive systematic biopsy cores［0.08（0，0.17）vs. 0.12（0，0.25）］，number of positive targeted biopsy cores［2.0（1.0，3.0）vs. 3.0（1.0，4.0）］，percentage of positive targeted biopsy cores［0.37（0.24，0.75）vs. 0.50（0.38，0.85）］，level of the index lesion，location of the index lesion，and PI-RADS score were associated with pathological upgrading（ P < 0.05）. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that PI-RADS score 4（ OR = 5.88，95% CI 2.41 - 14.35），number of suspicious lesions on MRI（ OR = 4.15，95% CI 1.88 - 9.17），location of the index lesion in the transition zone（ OR = 6.86，95% CI 2.81 - 16.73），and percentage of positive targeted biopsy cores（ OR = 4.37，95% CI 1.38 - 14.90）were independent risk factors for pathological upgrading（ P < 0.05）. The nomogram model constructed using these predictors had an AUC of 0.845. Internal validation using the Bootstrap method yielded an AUC value of 0.812，indicating high predictive accuracy of the model. The calibration curve indicated good calibration. Decision curve analysis showed that the threshold range for net benefit in the model was between 12% - 100%. Conclusions:The PI-RADS score 4，the number of lesions with PI-RADS ≥ 3，the location of the main lesion in the transition zone，and the percentage of positive needles in targeted biopsy are independent risk factors for pathological upgrading from Gleason score 3 + 3. The nomogram model constructed from these factors demonstrates good predictive performance and provides a reference for clinical decision-making.
