Risk factors for lymph node metastasis after RARP in high-risk prostate cancer patients and construction of a nomogram
10.3760/cma.j.cn112330-20250429-00179
- VernacularTitle:高危前列腺癌患者RARP术后淋巴结转移的危险因素及其列线图的构建
- Author:
Qi CAI
1
;
Ziyan AN
1
;
Zhoujie YE
1
;
Jinpeng SHAO
1
;
Kaipeng BI
1
;
Zheng WANG
1
;
Guanqiu CHEN
1
;
Jie ZHU
1
;
Guangfu CHEN
1
;
Shaoxi NIU
1
;
Baojun WANG
1
;
Xin MA
1
;
Jiangping GAO
1
;
Weijun FU
1
Author Information
1. 解放军总医院泌尿外科医学部，北京 100039蔡祺为南开大学医学院硕士研究生，天津 300071
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
High-risk prostate cancer;
Robot-assisted radical prostatectomy;
Lymph node metastasis;
Risk factors;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Urology
2025;46(8):593-599
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:This study investigated the independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis（LNM）in high-risk prostate cancer（HRPCa）patients undergoing robot-assisted radical prostatectomy（RARP），and constructed a nomogram model based on clinical data to improve the accuracy and clinical practicality of preoperative prediction of LNM.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 218 HRPCa patients who received RARP treatment at the First Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital from January 2020 to March 2025 as the modeling group. The age of the modeling group was（66.91±6.94）years old. 75 cases（34.40%）had a history of smoking，and 48 cases（22.02%）had a history of drinking. There were a body mass index（BMI）of 25.55（23.58，27.00）kg/m 2，a total prostate-specific antigen（tPSA）of 20.59（10.42，30.61）ng/ml，a free prostate-specific antigen（fPSA）of 1.87（1.04，3.26）ng/ml，a prostate volume（PV）of（41.19±21.00）ml，a prostate-specific antigen density（PSAD）of 0.52（0.30，0.84）ng/ml 2. Among the patients，60 cases（27.52%）had a preoperative biopsy Gleason score >8，and the percentage of positive biopsy cores（PPBC）was 50%（31%，80%）. Thirty-one patients（14.22%）were staged clinically as >T 2c. The diagnostic criteria for high-risk prostate cancer（HRPCa）were defined as meeting any one of the following：PSA >20 ng/ml，Gleason score on prostate biopsy ≥8，or clinical stage ≥T 3. Among the 218 patients in the modeling cohort，67 cases（30.73%）met two of the criteria，and 7 cases（3.21%）met all three criteria. All 218 patients underwent RARP，and based on postoperative pathology，they were divided into the LNM group and the non-LNM group. The relationship between the number of diagnostic criteria met and the occurrence of LNM was analyzed. An external validation cohort included 42 HRPCa patients who underwent RARP at the Third，Fifth Medical Centers of the PLA General Hospital between January 2023 and May 2025. Their mean age was（66.79±5.92）years. Eighteen patients（42.86%）had a smoking history，and nine（21.43%）had a history of alcohol consumption. The median BMI was 26.00（23.80，27.13）kg/m 2. The median tPSA level was 17.34（8.97，27.30）ng/ml. The median fPSA was 1.51（0.83，2.52）ng/ml，and the median PV was（35.57 ± 15.25）ml. The median PSAD was 0.57（0.23，0.87）ng/ml 2，and the median PPBC was 58%（36%，71%）. Three patients（7.14%）had a clinical stage >T 2c，and 12 patients（28.57%）had a Gleason score >8 on preoperative biopsy. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for LNM，and a nomogram model was constructed based on these factors. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curves and calibration plots，and the model was validated in the external cohort. Result:According to postoperative pathology，45 patients were classified into the LNM group，and 173 into the non-LNM group. The probability of LNM increased proportionally with the number of diagnostic criteria met for HRPCa（meeting two criteria： OR = 4.762，95% CI 2.323-9.761， P < 0.01；meeting three criteria： OR = 10.667，95% CI 2.187-52.025， P=0.003）. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that age（ OR=0.913，95% CI 0.859-0.971， P = 0.004），tPSA（ OR=1.039，95% CI 1.018-1.061， P<0.01），PPBC（ OR = 5.656，95% CI 1.101-29.056， P = 0.038），and clinical T stage（T 2c stage： OR=2.945，95% CI 0.888-9.769， P=0.077；>T 2c stage OR = 18.351，95% CI 4.790-70.306， P < 0.01）were independent risk factors for postoperative LNM in HRPCa patients after RARP. The ROC curve of the nomogram model based on these factors showed an area under the curve（AUC）of 0.853（95% CI 0.790-0.917）. In the external validation cohort，the nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.743（95% CI 0.556-0.929）. The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the predicted probabilities and actual observations. Conclusions:Age，tPSA，PPBC，and clinical T stage were independent predictors of postoperative LNM in HRPCa patients undergoing RARP. The greater the number of HRPCa diagnostic criteria met，the higher the likelihood of postoperative LNM. The nomogram developed in this study could effectively predict the risk of LNM in HRPCa patients after RARP.
